Thibs Will Rightly Go, But The Big Problem Is Rose

My wise grandfather used to say: when someone shows you who they are... believe them.

How may different ways does Derrick Rose need to show the world that he's just not that into this anymore?

The Bulls, and the basketball world, were blindsided two years ago when Rose was unwilling to return after he was cleared to play in the wake of his torn ACL. It never ocurred to the Bulls that their indefatigable warrior would not take to the court the moment he was ready.

His brother and his protective circle became an integral part of the story. Indeed, Rose has had a protective circle around him for his entire life and has never had to be his own man, and make his own decisions.

A dozen games into last season, he tore his meniscus, and everyone agreed from the jump that he would sit the season out. But this year, a theme began to develop. Rose delivered a string of unfortunate statements, talking openly about how he didn't want to be in pain later in life (as if this is a basketball, as opposed to a football, problem). It was clear that self-preservation was on his mind.

Maybe this was planted there by his militantly over-protective brother, Reggie, whose own basketball aspirations were snuffed out by injuries. Maybe two long, arduous rehabilitation processes had sapped his passion for the game. Maybe the guaranteed money had removed his sense of urgency. (Remember him crying after signing his big contract? "Mom, we made it!" Maybe this, getting his family out of Englewood, was his Championship all along.)

Maybe it was all of the above.

But the Derrick Rose we saw this year was undeniably a changed man and a changed player. He showed flashes of excellence, but disappeared for longer stretches. He was indifferent on defense and passive on offense. The ruthless penetration of the paint was rarely there. He played scared, afraid to leave his feet in traffc - at times even looking down while airborne. In tense moments, he too often was a wallflower. While opposing teams went on runs, Derrick too often deferred, and shrank from the fight.

With 24 minutes left in the season and the Bulls trailing, Rose scored 2 points on 4 second half shots against a Cavs team with Kyrie Irving sitting on the bench. He watched undrafted Matthew Dellavedova eat his lunch.

And this on the heels of a Starksian 2-for-17 finish in the pivotal Game 5.

Incomprehensible. Would the pre-injury Rose have gone so meekly? Not in a million years. He may not have prevailed, but he would have raged against the dying of the light.

Every time Rose had a good game this year, we all hoped against hope that it portended a return to greatess. Yet each and every time, he fell back again. He would take a half off. He would settle forperimeter  jump shots - if he shot at all. He would ignore defensive challenges.

It wasn't that he tried and failed, battled and lost. It was that much of the time he seemed to have no fight in him at all.

His play, his body language, his actions in returning from injuries... everything he does says, "Let me just get to the end of this thing with my knees intact and my money in the bank."

Only we don't even need to infer it. He has said as much, so his game and his choices need no further interpretation.

Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah gave everything they had of their aging, wounded legs. Jimmy Butler showed up to do battle with an all-time great. But when it all began to slip away, the Bulls knew they could no longer look to #1 to lead them. They knew that Rose just wasn't there. And that self-doubt was all that LeBron and his mates needed to blow the whole thing wide open in the end.

Will a new coach bring a new energy that helps Rose rediscover the love of playing basketball that for now has clearly - clearly - left him?

It has to happen. Or the Bulls need to find Rose a new home.

The Rose Conundrum

Two moments.

The freak of nature that is LeBron James barrelled through the lane towards the basket. Between LeBron and the rim stood Nikola Mirotic. Outweighed by at least 40 pounds (depending on which estimate of LeBron's measurables you accept), Mirotic gamely - and futilely - attempted to stop King James from finishing. "And one".

A few feet away, Derrick Rose stood, Boozerianly, and watched. He would not get in LeBron's way. He did not even bother to swipe at the ball and give Mirotic a fighting chance at the rim.

Yet as the closing seconds of regulation ticked down, Rose took the inbounds pass, turned on the jets that he still has, achieved enough separation, and let it fly. The bank was open on a rainy Friday night in Chicago. Pandemonium.

Rose's return from two injury-plagued seasons has been messy. It has confounded simple narratives about what he is and isn't... about who he is and isn't.

Is Rose still in the middle stages of a process of beoming a star again, perhaps in a slightly diminished form?

Or have two years of monotonous rehab, combined with the permanent security of guaranteed millions, created a man who has lost his love for the game and at a fundamental level is now wired to view everything he does through a lens of self-preservation?

His defenders dismiss his unfortunate statements about not being in pain in business meetings later in life as the misunderstood ramblings of a young man who, lets face it, needed someone else to take his SAT's for him in order to serve the absurd mandate of one semester of pretend-college.

(These same defenders, interestingly, bristle at the suggestion that he lacks the aptitude to play a pure playmaking point guard position that perhaps the Bulls' new wealth of offensive of options suggests that he ought to.)

His chief defenders are his teammates. If they have doubted his will, his value, they have done an immaculate job of hiding it.

Yet as we saw Rose seemingly wake up from a stupor at halftime on Friday, it's hard not to think that perhaps Joakim Noah got in his face in the locker room and said, "Hey, Maverick, we've got bogeys all over us here. Maybe you want to engage?"

Noah, himself, has nothing right now. The spiritual leader of the team is playing on one leg and finally took a seat for most of the second half on Friday. Noah is going to win or die trying - and let's be honest, at some point in this postseason, it's likely to be the latter. But he's a wolverine, and I can't imagine watching Rose shy away from the fight as often as he does would not make Noah a little crazy now and again. Or crazier, anyway.

Rose is not, today, the same player he was when he won the MVP in Tom Thibodeau's first year in Chicago. I don't know if he will be that good again. Neither do you.

There are moments when you watch him and think: that's him! That's Derrick Rose! The blow-by quickness. The powerful step-back into an impossible jumper that falls. The quick elevation to block a shot on a larger opponent.

But there are also long stretches where he plays a brand of basketball that is, for lack of a better word, offensive.

Even at his best, he was never a great defender, but any great athlete, if he wants to, can avoid being a liability. Thibodeau had coaxed adequancy out of him on defense, pre-injury, and that was enough. For most of this season, however, Rose's brand of defense has consisted of escorting his man wherever he wants to go on the floor, as we saw him do with MIchael Carter-Williams in Round 1 against the Bucks.

Last night, Kyrie Irving swished a deep topside three - an ill-advised shot, to be sure - but on which Rose's hands never went above his waist. He could not even be troubled to put a hand in Irving's face. Rose had already positioned himself in an odd "open" stance, inviting Irving to drive to the middle of the floor where, presumably. someone else might stop his advance. Rose seemed surprised Irving didn't bother.

For whole quarters, you will see Rose seemingly drift, never once breaking into a sprint (an anecdotal account that is backed up by the Sport-Vu cameras in NBA arenas now, which do in fact show that Rose just doesn't ball so hard.)

To avoid contact under the basket, Rose leaves his feet to pass - an absurd habit that high school coaches try to beat out of their players.

And over the course of the season, Rose defiantly took an obscene number of three-pointers, an incarnation of Rose that the obnoxious but often on-point Chicago Sun-Times reporter, Joe Cowley, refers to a "FIBA Derrick" - in reference to his passive style for Team USA.  This season, Rose hit only a hair over 1 in 4 triples. He had become the guy you hate playing with at the gym, the one who thinks that beause he makes a shot once in a while, it's one he should keep taking because sooner or later his 30% will become 40%.

And where Rose used to launch himself at the rim, leaving opponents with only two choices - allow the basket or foul him - Rose now avoids leaving his feet in traffic, instead optiing to try to snake his way around larger defenders. When he does venture into the lane, he usually misses or his shot is blocked - a sight you almost never saw before. Getting into the lane and fanning the ball out to shooters, a simple form of playmaking that comes as second nature to LeBron, is an afterthought to Rose.

Never a pure playmaker in the sense of Nash, Paul or Parker, Rose nonetheless performed his facilitation duties competently before his injury. His explosiveness opened up passing lanes for him to exploit, which kept his assists over 7 per game and limited his need to take low-percentage shots.

Too often now, his decision-making defies logic. In the first two games of the Cavs series, Rose was picked up on a switch by a big man on four occasions, leaving a guard on Pau Gasol. In none of the four instances did Rose get the ball in to Gasol, who would have either scored easily or rotated the ball to an open teammate for an easy shot. Instead, Rose each time opted for difficult jumpers, making one and missing the other three.

Yet in the same situation Friday night, Jimmy Butler twice worked the ball in to Taj Gibson, resulting in a basket once and a foul the other time. It's an un-sexy play, one that won't show up on the stat sheet. But it's Basketball 101, an elementary tactical approach that too often eludes Rose as he tries to find himself again. He at times seems more interested in proving to himself and to the world that he's back, as opposed to winning a basketball game.

In the end last night, all was right. A heart-stopping finish. A crucial win. An appealing, if inefficient, 30-7-7 line, and a firm whooping of Uncle Drew. Kyrie lays down the road the Bulls must travel, and last night Derrick got the best of him.The Bulls now stand a Sunday home win away from solid control of the series and a very real path to the NBA Finals. And while Jimmy Butler is clearly the Bulls' best player right now, Rose still mans the helm.

Yet amidst the failing health of Noah and Gasol, and peak toxicity between Thibodeau and management... the halting, frustrating, at-times scintillating but perpetually vexing (r)evolution of Derrick Rose is just another layer of complexity heaped atop what could be the messiest conference champion in memory.

Analyzing The New Bulls

I know some subscribe to the dogma that in order to win an NBA title, you MUST have a second shot-creator, someone who can play some hero-ball when a called play or offensive set breaks down.  While I would agree that you would prefer to have that, this is far from an absolute, as the 2004 Pistons only had Chauncey Billups who could isolate and create his own shot, and the 2010 Mavs only had Dirk Nowitzki. And hell, you could argue that the Spurs team that just won didn't have ANYONE who could isolate and score for himself on the level that most Championship teams have a star who can do it.

So there IS more than one way to skin a cat.

Let's turn back the clock to the Bulls-Heat East finals. The point differential in that series was Heat +11. That's it.  And of the four Heat victories over the Bulls, three came down to the final possession or two. As we all know, the difference in that series was that the Bulls had no answer for LeBron negating Derrick Rose late in games. Luol Deng was a decent but not great three point shooter - not enough of a weapon out there to force the Heat to account for it.  Kyle Korver was a sniper, but he didn't even have the ability to take a few dribbles and get a new look when run off his spot - and he certainly could not even think of attacking the rim when chased off. Keith Bogans was an offensive zero, and Carlos Boozer was never what he was expected to be.

Carmelo Anthony would have been a great fit.  He's a prolific scorer that would have made it impossible to EVER put LeBron on Rose. And the Bulls defensive culture could have covered for Anthony, just as it covered for Boozer.  Plus, it's easier to work around one liability when your defensive zero is not going to be the last line of defense. 

I personally thought Gordon Hayward would have similarly filled the tactical need to prevent LeBron-on-Rose, as he is legitimately capable of running the point at 6'9" and creating his own shot in certain matchups.  If Hayward were bringing the ball up in an endgame situation, you can do things off the ball to pry LeBron off of Rose. But alas, Hayward was not even available, as it turns out.

So now that we have the roster pretty well locked down, are the current Bulls more equipped to handle this tactic if and when the Cavs decide to put LeBron on Rose?  I would submit: undoubtedly.

For starters, Thibodeau can now sub wholesale offense-for-defense in endgames with Hinrich/Butler/Gibson/Noah as a defensive platoon and Dunleavy/McDermott/Mirotic/Gasol as an offensive unit.  Few if any teams in the NBA can field "specialist" units as strong as these.

On offense, you can really space the floor now. You have three good to very good three point shooters and a big man who is a legitimate threat to score close to the basket or on a mid-range jumper, and is an excellent passer as well.

Gaming out a matchup with Cleveland...  

If the Cavs have made a deal involving Wiggins and Love, they're in a situation where if David Blatt puts LeBron on Rose, he pretty much needs to take Kyrie Irving off the floor, as he would be forced to guard a 6'9" Dunleavy, who could shoot over him - or Doug McDermott, who could both shoot over him OR take him down in the post. If the game then flips to the other end, Cleveland is at a disadvantage with Uncle Drew off the floor. 

With Dunleavy, McDermott, Mirotic and Gasol, you can now force LeBron's team to make some hard choices - which Thibodeau could not do the last time he faced LeBron.

In fact, if Cleveland is looking ahead to possible playoff matchups with the Bulls, they may be better off NOT trading for Love if it involves dealing Wiggins, as they will need his potentially dominant defense - and could allow him to be offensive option #3 on that team. And LeBron, of all people, should heed the lesson of Chris Bosh in Miami: the Heat never got their money's worth out of him because there simply weren't enough shots to go around for three stars - and Bosh did not bring enough to table in other areas of the game. Good chance the Cavs would never get their money's worth out of Love, as LeBron will be the leading scorer and Irving will have the ball a great deal himself.

The biggest fear the Bulls should have is if Cleveland manages to pry Love loose with some combination of Tristan Thompson, Dion Waiters, and 2-3 first round picks. Then you have a lineup that is almost impossible to match up with.

Deconstructing The Bulls

After retreating in shame in the wake of my sorry mock draft performance (in my defense, this draft was screwy and bad), the Memo took an offseason hiatus.

But now that Derrick Bowie has fallen again, it's time to come back and play GM.

After a second knee injury which will result in Rose having only played 49 games in three years, we now can no longer assume that we will ever see the old Derrick Rose.  He should eventually be good again.  He may even be very good, an All-Star.  But we're now past the point where Rose can be looked upon as the sole centerpiece of a Championship contender.

It was not unreasonable, with the emergence of Jimmy Butler and the impending arrival of Nikola Mirotic, to look at keeping the current Bulls team together as a viable option for remaining a contender, especially with the possible breakup of the Heat in the next year or two.  It does not seem likely LeBron James will cast his lot with an aging, declining Wade, Bosh, no cap space, and no high draft picks. However, with uncertainty surrounding Rose's future, there may not be enough "prime" left in Luol Deng and Joakim Noah to offer enough of a window as a contender.

Unfortunately, even letting Deng walk in free agency and using the amnesty clause to unload the last year of Carlos Boozer's contract still does not open up a max salary slot for the Bulls.  Over $50 million will be committed to Rose, Noah, Gibson, Butler, Dunleavy, Snell, Murphy, Teague and Mirotic.  Yes, you could do some salary dumps and probably get there, but the free agent route has not been kind to the Bulls even if you could.  Jerry Krause came away with Ron Mercer and Brad Miller from the Tim Duncan/Grant Hill/Tracy McGrady/Eddie Jones class, and John Paxson came away with Carlos Boozer from the LeBron/Wade/Bosh/David Lee class. The sad fact is that as great a city as Chicago is, players who have the choice on where to go almost never choose a cold-weather city unless it's New York.  So even if the Bulls could clear out enough room for a max player to pair with Rose, landing LeBron or Melo or Kevin Love is pretty much a pipe dream anyway.

The Bulls need to maximize their chance to get Rose a running mate or two through the draft, and they need to do it right freakin' now as we head towards the best draft since the 2003 affair that gave us LeBron, Melo, Bosh, Wade, David West and others.

The Bulls need to get bad.  Immediately.  And here's how.

Trade #1: Luol Deng and Marquis Teague (to make the salaries work) to Brooklyn for Paul Pierce and Mason Plumlee

The Nets don't defend anyone, and even a young and athletic Pierce was not known for his D.  With the Nets, the 36 year-old is averaging only 13.2 points per game on a woeful 39% shooting.  For this year, Deng would be a huge upgrade, and the Nets would inherit Deng's Larry Bird rights so they could re-sign him next summer.  Pierce, too, has an expiring contract, and the Bulls get a young, athletic big man in Plumlee out of the exchange.  In all likelihood, Pierce would be released so he could catch on as a bench player for a contender and not accidentally win the Bulls any games.

Trade #2:  Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer to the Lakers for Pau Gasol, Chris Kaman and a #1 pick

Having extended Kobe Bryant, the Lakers have now taken themselves out of the free agent market and committed to trying to keep a competitive roster around him.  Noah and Boozer come as a plug-and-play frontcourt that represents a significant upgrade over Gasol and Kaman - both of whose expiring contracts can be flipped. Ergo...

Trade #3:  Gasol to Boston, Kris Humphries and Kelly Olynyk to Houston, Omer Asik to the Bulls

The Celtics would now have a very good frontcourt in Jeff Green, Gerald Wallace and Gasol.  When Rajon Rondo returns, they could potentially be a factor in the East.

Omer Asik and Dwight Howard have not worked together in Houston, and the Rockets badly want to be rid of Asik's $15 million balloon next year.  A face-up big man like Olynyk would be a nice complement to Howard, while Humphries' expiring deal relieves them of Asik's onerous deal.

The Bulls get Asik back, along with his Larry Bird rights, and he is potentially their center going forward.

Trade #4:  Taj Gibson to San Antonio for Boris Diaw, Marco Belinelli and a #1 pick

This is a straight salary dump for the Bulls.  Gibson would be a nice upgrade as part of a 3-man rotation up front for the Spurs as they ride out their last year or two as a Championship contender.  The Bulls get Diaw's expiring deal, Belinelli and a late first rounder for their trouble.

Trade #5:  Belinelli, Mike Dunleavy Jr., and the Spurs' #1 pick to Philadelphia for Elliot Williams and Brandon Davies

The Sixers are swimming in cap space - they have room now and they have enough room for two max players next summer even if they absorb $6 million in Dunleavy and Belinelli.  The Bulls give them the Spurs' pick just to take them of their hands.  Williams and Davies are nobodies with small, expiring deals.

Trade #6: Kirk Hinrich and Chris Kaman to Atlanta for Elton Brand and Dennis Schroeder

Atlanta is competitive and unlikely to be part of this year's lottery sweepstakes, so two veteran bench pieces could help keep them relevant - and since both Hinrich's and Kaman's deals are expiring, it doesn't constrain them for the future.

Schroeder is a quick young point guard with some potential who nonetheless is not contributing now - and the Hawks have signed Jeff Teague long term.  Brand is an expiring deal who is not playing.

So where does all this leave the Bulls?

Well, for the rest of this year, it creates a delightfully-awful starting lineup of Mike James, Tony Snell, Jimmy Butler, Boris Diaw, and Omer Asik.  Dennis Schroeder, Elton Brand, Erik Murphy, Mason Plumlee, Nazr Mohammed, and a couple of guys you pick up off the street will close out the roster.

You have now successfully become the worst team in the NBA and managed to get way out of the luxury tax, too.

Going forward, you have the following salaries committed for next year:

Rose $18.862
Asik $14.898
Butler  $2.119
Plumlee  $1.357
Schroeder $1.691
Snell $1.473

Total salary commitment: $40.4 million, plus whatever you end up paying Nikola Mirotic and your draft picks.  So you won't have a max slot this summer, but you can get one in the summer of 2015 - which may be the next "big" free agent summer - when Asik's deal expires or the Bulls extend him at a lower number than his 2014-15 balloon.

In addition, the Bulls would have what will almost surely be a top four pick in a draft that includes high-probability impact talents like Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Julius Randle, Marcus Smart, Dante Exum and Aaron Gordon.

On top of that, the Bulls would have the Lakers' pick, which will likely be in the 15-20 range.

And you still have the Charlotte pick in the hopper, whenever that comes!

The Bulls would now have more than enough assets to do a rapid rebuild to contention in just the summers of 2014 and 2015.  You can get the roster primed for the four seasons when Derrick Rose will be 27, 28, 29 and 30.

Get on it, GarPax.

MOCK What You Don't Understand v3.0

There will probably be a 3.1 on Draft Day Afternoon, but for now, here's another pass at it while reading all the tea leaves that are out there.

Sometimes you have to try to be clairvoyant: how much of the inside info is out there because a team wants it out there to move the market?  You game out who might want to inflate or deflate a prospect's value and marry that with a read of each team's needs.

So without further ado, here we go...

1. Cleveland: Alex Len, C, Maryland

ESPN's Chad Ford is adamant this will still be Nerlens Noel, but everyone else seems to be saying Len right now.  I'll be a lemming and go with the crowd.

2.  Orlando: Nerlens Noel, C, Kentucky

There is a consensus out there that if the Cavs don't take Noel, the Magic will.  This will create an interesting situation with Nikola Vucevic.  Will Noel be a PF like his Kentucky predecessor, Anthony Davis, is in New Orleans?  Or is Vucevic now a trade chip?  We wait and see. Personally, I'd take Oladipo here.  But no one seems to think that's happening if Noel is there.

3.  Washington: Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown

This doesn't seem to change because it makes too much sense.  Porter is a solid prospect and a local product at a position of need.  SheridanHoops is convinced that the Wizards are going with Bennett here.  It's not ridiculous... but I'm not sold yet.  Let's monitor this one.

4.  Charlotte: Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas

Truth is, I really like Victor Oladipo more, but there's no denying McLemore's skill set and athletic package.  And the Bobcats/Hornets probably need a more prolific scorer between Kemba Walker and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.

5.  Phoenix:  Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana

A nice program-builder for the Suns and a nicer complement to this blog's namesake in the backcourt.

6.  New Orleans:  Trey Burke, PG, Michigan

Some reports say the Pelicans have given up on Austin Rivers.  Some reports say they see him as a shooting guard.  Some say they still believe in him as a point guard.  Myself, I think it's too early to write him off as a player, but I think he's probably a long term combo guard off the bench.  I never saw a top point guard there.  There seems to be a consensus building around C.J. McCollum as the top PG in the draft, although I am always wary of the 6'3" scoring lead guard. (See: Austin Rivers...)  So I'm sticking with Trey Burke here.  He's too complete a package.  If he were 3 inches taller, someone would trade up to #1 for him.

7.  Sacramento: Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV

There is just too much Bennett can do for you. He shouldn't be here this late.

8.  Detroit:  Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse

Lots of people see McCollum here.  I just don't see him working with Brandon Knight in a backcourt of two 6'3" guards.  MCW has rare size, a pure PG approach, and you can work on a jump shot.  This just works.

9.  Minnesota: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia

He seems to be moving up draft boards, and he's the best available player at Minnesota's greatest position of need.

10.  Portland:  Steven Adams, C, Pitt

The Kiwi has a lot going for him.  His offense is a work in progress, but he has the body, the motor, and should be able to defend and rebound from Day One.  With the jury still out on Meyers Leonard, this is too much value to pass up.

11.  Philadelphia:  Cody Zeller, PF/C, Indiana

Zeller probably belongs higher, but there isn't quite the fit in the top ten. You can play him at center in small lineups, power forward in big lineups. An impressive combination of size, athleticism, and skill  His similarity to LaMarcus Aldridge is the only reason Portland doesn't take him at #10.

12.  Oklahoma City:  C.J. McCollum, PG/SG, Lehigh

I've had McCollum going here all along.  He's a perfect fit: bench scoring, and you can play him with Russell Westbrook, or backing him up.

13.  Dallas:  Shane Larkin, PG, Miami

We're into the crapshoot stage of the draft.  Dallas needs everything as they rebuild. Larkin, while small, tested well athletically, is a pure point guard, and can score, too.

14.  Utah:  Dennis Schroeder, PG, Germany

Some conflicting reports on Schroeder's stock, but PG is Utah's biggest "need" position. I think they pull the trigger.

15.  Milwaukee:  Sergey Karasev, SF, Russia

Perhaps the best shooter in the draft, and the Bucks badly need shooting - and a small forward.

16.  Boston:  Mason Plumlee, PF/C, Duke

With Doc Rivers gone, they are officially rebuilding.  They're looking to move Garnett and Pierce. They may or may not keep Rondo.  They'll likely just take the best player available, and in my opinion that's Plumlee.  I'm bullish on his NBA outlook.  "Plus" size and athleticism - I think he's a good starting PF in the league.

17.  Atlanta:  Shabazz Muhammad, SG, UCLA

The Hawks are re-tooling, and Muhammad - while most seem to think he lacks star potential at this point - is a fairly safe pick.  This sets up...

18.  Atlanta:  Giannis Adetokuonbo, SF, Greece

The Greek Freak is the consummate boom-or-bust selection.  Possessing rare length and athleticism, and some legitimate point guard skills at 6'9", he's also 18 and currently playing against competition that is one step above a pickup game at the JCC.  He could be Scottie Pippen 5 years from now.  He could also fail to ever make it to the league.

19.  Cleveland:  Glen Rice Jr., SG/SF, D-League

The Cavs would have loved for Karasev to fall here so they could fill the small forward position and stretch the floor for Kyrie Irving.  Rice, like his father, can shoot the 3, and he's more athletic than Dad. He's not much off the bounce, but that's not what the Cavs need anyway.  In one of the draft's oddest stories, the guy who got kicked off Georgia Tech's team and dominated the D-league ends up in a great situation in Cleveland.

20.  Chicago:  Tim Hardaway Jr., SG, Michigan

I had been on Gorgui Dieng here for a long time, but after watching how Indiana and San Antonio attacked Miami, I am coming around to the idea that the Bulls need to stretch the floor to beat the Heat. You're not going to get that second shot-maker here, but you can get someone who can pull a potential double-team away from Rose.  Hardaway can shoot, and his intensity and professionalism that showed up in predraft workouts would seem to be a good fit with Tom Thibodeau's redline-all-the-time culture. And if anyone can find an adequate defender in Hardaway, it's Thibs.  If Hardaway works out, in the wake of Jimmy Butler's emergence, it gives the Bulls the flexibility to move on from Luol Deng at some point and get a little younger around Derrick Rose.

21.  Utah: Kelly Olynyk, C, Gonzaga

This is an excellent value pick here.  Olynyk has a rare skill set for a 7-footer.

22.  Brooklyn:  Jamaal Franklin, SG, San Diego State

With Deron Williams and Joe Johnson more than happy to shoot, a do-everything, stat-sheet-stuffing wing is just what the doctor ordered for the Nets.

23.  Indiana:  Lucas Nogueira, C, Brazil

The Pacers need a point guard.  There isn't one available here.  And they're not likely to get an immediate contributor here.  So they go for upside.  Nogueira is a potential Marcus Camby close:  long, rail thin, athletic, and a natural shot blocker.  He won't be in Indy right away, but he's a potential long term option for Roy Hibbert.

24.  New York:  Isaiah Canaan, PG, Murray State

Ray Felton oscillates between looking like an All-Star and a nonfactor.  The Knicks could use a little insurance here.

25.  L.A. Clippers:  Allen Crabbe, SG, Cal

Shooting guard is probably the Cavs' weakest position (now that they'd removed "Head Coach" from the list).  Chris Paul and Blake Griffin could use a floor-stretcher.

26.  Minnesota:  Reggie Bullock, SF, North Carolina

No real star power here, but Bullock can defend at small forward and shoot the 3.  Caldwell-Pope and Bullock upgrade the T-Wolves on the wings, and they should do so right away.  Both are fairly safe picks, and Minnesota has had too many busts over the years to take a lot of chances now.

27.  Denver:  Nate Wolters, PG/SG, South Dakota State

Wolters is creeping up draft boards, it seems.  Andre Miller has to stop at some point, Ty Lawson needs a backup, and in certain situations you may be able to play Lawson and Wolters together.

28.  San Antonio:  Gorgui Dieng, PF/C, Louisville

Tim Duncan can't play forever, Tiago Splitter is limited, and Dieng can defend, pass out of the high post, and may at some point make the foul-line jumper a reliable weapon.

29.  Oklahoma City:  Alex Abrines, SG, Spain

Realistically, no one the Thunder would take here would ever see the floor in the short term.  Best to take the highest-upside Euro-stash they can find.

30.  Phoenix:  Tony Mitchell, SF/PF, North Texas

OK, so the Suns already have Kansas' Morris twins, but there's no indication yet that either is any good.  Keep taking shots... eventually one will fall.

MOCK What You Don't Understand - v2.1

In the wake of Dario Saric surprisingly pulling out of the draft despite appearing to be a mid-first rounder and rising, we need to re-work the first round now...

1. Cleveland:  Nerlens Noel, C, Kentucky

Still no reason to think the potential defensive game-changer is not the pick here.

2. Orlando: Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV

McLemore may have the best upside, but some question his approach to the game.  Trey Burke was a fabulously productive player, but he's a hair under 6' tall.  That's tough to bank on with the #2 pick.  Oladipo is the surest best to contribute at the NBA level, but will his offensive game keep improving?  (I'm a HUGE Oladipo fan and would personally take him this high.)  But in the end, my gut says it's Bennett.  If he were 2 inches taller he would clearly be the top player in this draft. His ability to face up, stretch the floor, or go in the low post is too compelling, and will fit well with the prolific rebounding of Nikola Vucevic.

3. Washington:  Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown

Still too perfect a fit.

4.  Charlotte:  Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas

A gift that he falls to Hornets here.  Slotting him between the improving Kemba Walker and the developing Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is the foundation for getting something going at long last in Charlotte

5.  Phoenix:  Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana

Still a perfect backcourt complement to Goran Dragic, and a high quality building block for the Suns.

6.  New Orleans:  Alex Len, C, Maryland

Per ESPN's Chad Ford, the Pelicans have not given up hope on Austin Rivers as a point guard, are comfortable with "The General" Greivis Vazquez in the interim, and view Anthony Davis as a PF.  Len might have gone #1 but not for his injury.

7. Sacramento:  Trey Burke, PG, Michigan

There seems to be a consensus out there on this pick right now.  The Kings don't have an answer at the point with Isaiah Thomas or Jimmer Fredette, and Tyreke Evans is probably best suited to a role as a combo guard off the bench.  A Kings team badly in need of some stability would love if a polished floor general like Burke slipped to them.  I would not, however, sleep on Cody Zeller in this spot...

8.  Detroit:  Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse

Sticking with this one.  MCW is just too nice a fit with the more scoring-minded Brandon Knight in the backcourt.  He also adds top-end athleticism and a pure PG's orientation to a Pistons team badly in need of both.

9.  Minnesota:  Cody Zeller, PF/C, Indiana

With Kevin Love and the now-emerged Nikola Pekovic manning the frontcourt, and a major dearth of skill and athleticism at the 2 and 3, this would seem like a strange pick for Flip Saunders and the T'Wolves.  But Zeller is simply the best player available, opening eyes with his three-point shooting and athleticism in workouts, and I think the more one-on-one style of game in the NBA will suit Zeller's skill set better than the 5-foul, muddled interior of the college game.  Zeller should be able to play either frontcourt position and may ultimately give the T'Wolves the flexibility to move Love or Pekovic for better wing help than this draft can offer them.

10.  Portland:  Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia

A shooter who seems to be moving up draft boards.  He slots in nicely between Damian Lillard and Nicolas Batum.

11. Philadelphia:  Mason Plumlee, PF/C, Duke

Some mocks have him slipping as far as #20 to Chicago.  As a Bulls fan, I would love to see that happen but I just can't imagine that someone with Plumlee's size, strength, ability to run the floor, and experience will slip that far.  The Sixers need frontcourt help in a big way in the wake of the disastrous Andrew Bynum deal.

12.  Oklahoma City:  C.J. McCollum, PG/SG, Lehigh

Sticking with this one from 1.0.  McCollum is an explosive scoring guard who can both back up Russell Westbrook and play alongside him.  Don't sleep on Steven Adams here, but I think McCollum will be too enticing to pass up.

13.  Dallas: Dennis Schroeder, PG, Germany

Lightning-quick playmaker joins his countryman, Dirk, in Dallas.

14.  Utah:  Shane Larkin, PG, Miami

Larkin has dazzled, athletically, in workouts and at the Chicago combine.  Utah's biggest need is at the point.

15.  Milwaukee:  Sergey Karasev, SG/SF, Russia

A sharpshooter with enough size and athleticism to play either the 2 or 3.  A surprising level of polish and experience for a 19 year-old.

16.  Boston: Shabazz Muhammad, SG/SF, UCLA

After coming into college with a ton of hype, now observers are fixated on the potential weaknesses in his game. But he's a polished scorer who is just too good a value for Boston to pass up here.

17.  Atlanta:  Giannis Adetokuompo, SF, Greece

Perhaps the best upside of any player in the draft. The "Greek Freak" likely will not play in the NBA for 2-3 years, but he has incredible length and athleticism for a small forward and actually plays point guard for his Greek league club.  If you want to take a shot at finding another Scottie Pippen at the same age, this is your chance.

18.  Atlanta:  Jamaal Franklin, SG, San Diego State

He led the Aztecs in PTS, REB, AST, STL, I think even HR and RBI....  a classic do-everything wing who could be a steal if he straightens out his jumper. 

19.  Cleveland:  Steven Adams, C, Pitt

They would have loved Muhammad or Karasev here, but Adams isn't a bad consolation prize.  A good athlete with true center size, and a top-shelf motor and work ethic. His offensive game is a work in progress, but he has a chance to develop into a top defensive center.

20.  Chicago: Gorgui Dieng, PF/C, Louisville

Another one steady since Mock 1.0.  Ready to give the Bulls solid bench minutes right away, and this is what they need.  It would, however, be very interesting if Karasev or Muhammad were to slip.

21.  Utah:  Kelly Olynyk, PF/C, Gonzaga

Olynyk is a wildcard who could go anywhere from the late lottery to the mid-20's.  A big man with an unconventional but impressive skill set, he was an outstanding college player who would be a solid get along with Larkin.

22.  Brooklyn:  Reggie Bullock, SG/SF, North Carolina

A high-floor, low-ceiling pick.  He's mostly just a shooter on offense, but he can guard two positions and should be a nice piece.  The Nets are in a "win-now" mode and need someone who can contribute quickly, even if he's a role player.

23.  Indiana:  Rudy Gobert, C, France

The Pacers suddenly have dreams of contention, and would have probably loved to see  Larkin slip this far so they could upgrade from George Hill at the point, or Karasev so they could add some much-needed perimeter shooting.  But absent someone who could give immediate help, Gobert has size and length you can't teach - a Roy Hibbert in training wheels.  Tim Hardaway Jr. is a possibility here.

24.  New York:  Tony Mitchell, F, North Texas

There seems to be a small consensus building around this pick.  He brings top-end athleticism, defense, and rebounding a very high overall upside.  He's a boom-or-bust pick, but absent anyone who is sure to crack the Knicks' rotation, there is no reason not to swing for the fences here.

25.  L.A. Clippers:  Tim Hardaway Jr., SG, Michigan

The Clips need shooting, and Hardaway has earned high marks for his marksmanship, as well as his intensity and professionalism.  He has ideal size for the 2, but his defense and his game off the bounce are works in progress.  He's unlikely to be a star, but his floor is rising, which makes him a good bet to be a complementary contributor on a competitive team.

26.  Minnesota:  Glen Rice Jr., SG/SF, D-League

He has character issues in his past, but he dominated the D-League last season and brings the kind of athleticism and perimeter shooting the T'Wolves desperately need.

27. Denver: Lucas Nogueira, C, Brazil

Unlikely to find a player who will crack their rotation right away, this is another team that can shoot for upside.  The team that drafted Nene can now try their hand with "Bebe", a rail-thin athletic freak who could be a Marcus Camby type of defensive dominator in time.

28.  San Antonio:  Allen Crabbe, SG, California

Projected by most to go a bit higher, so this is a solid value pick.  Since Manu Ginobili and Matt Bonner can't play forever, new shooting has to come from somewhere.

29.  Oklahoma City:  Mouhammadou Jaiteh, C, France

A young, physically impressive big man who won't be here for a little while yet.  The Thunder can wait. A McCollum/Jaiteh draft for a team that is already a championship contender seems almost unfair.

30. Phoenix:  Tony Snell, SG/SF, New Mexico

A long, catch-and-shoot wing with some upside.

MOCK What You Don't Understand v2.0

There are some new tea leaves out there as we see who is thought to be moving up and moving down.

Orlando is clearly the wildcard in the top half of the lottery.  They could still go with Ben McLemore, Trey Burke, Anthony Bennett or Victor Oladipo.  That they do not appear fixated on McLemore could be legit, or it could be that they are not in love with any one option and want to see if someone makes them a solid offer to move down.  If Minnesota were willing to part to the #9 and #26 picks along with Derrick Williams for #2, would Orlando bite?

But that notwithstanding, let's take another run at this...

1. Cleveland:  Nerlens Noel, C, Kentucky

Still no reason to think the potential defensive game-changer is not the pick here.

2. Orlando: Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV

McLemore may have the best upside, but some question his approach to the game.  Trey Burke was a fabulously productive player, but he's a hair under 6' tall.  That's tough to bank on with the #2 pick.  Oladipo is the surest best to contribute at the NBA level, but will his offensive game keep improving?  (I'm a HUGE Oladipo fan and would personally take him this high.)  But in the end, my gut says it's Bennett.  If he were 2 inches taller he would clearly be the top player in this draft. His ability to face up, stretch the floor, or go in the low post is too compelling, and will fit well with the prolific rebounding of Nikola Vucevic.

3. Washington:  Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown

Still too perfect a fit.

4.  Charlotte:  Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas

A gift that he falls to Hornets here.  Slotting him between the improving Kemba Walker and the developing Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is the foundation for getting something going at long last in Charlotte

5.  Phoenix:  Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana

Still a perfect backcourt complement to Goran Dragic, and a high quality building block for the Suns.

6.  New Orleans:  Alex Len, C, Maryland

Per ESPN's Chad Ford, the Pelicans have not given up hope on Austin Rivers as a point guard, are comfortable with "The General" Greivis Vazquez in the interim, and view Anthony Davis as a PF.  Len might have gone #1 but not for his injury.

7. Sacramento:  Trey Burke, PG, Michigan

There seems to be a consensus out there on this pick right now.  The Kings don't have an answer at the point with Isaiah Thomas or Jimmer Fredette, and Tyreke Evans is probably best suited to a role as a combo guard off the bench.  A Kings team badly in need of some stability would love if a polished floor general like Burke slipped to them.  I would not, however, sleep on Cody Zeller in this spot...

8.  Detroit:  Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse

Sticking with this one.  MCW is just too perfect a fit with the more scoring-minded Brandon Knight in the backcourt.  He also adds top-end athleticism and a pure PG's orientation to a Pistons team badly in need of both.

9.  Minnesota:  Cody Zeller, PF/C, Indiana

With Kevin Love and the now-emerged Nikola Pekovic manning the frontcourt, and a major dearth of skill and athleticism at the 2 and 3, this would seem like a strange pick for Flip Saunders and the T'Wolves.  But Zeller is simply the best player available, opening eyes with his three-point shooting and athleticism in workouts, and I think the more one-on-one style of game in the NBA will suit Zeller's skill set better than the 5-foul, muddled interior of the college game.  Zeller should be able to play either frontcourt position and may ultimately give the T'Wolves the flexibility to move Love or Pekovic for better wing help than this draft can offer them.

10.  Portland:  Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

A shooter who seems to be moving up draft boards.  He slots in nicely between Damian Lillard and Nicolas Batum.

11. Philadelphia:  Mason Plumlee, PF/C, Duke

Some mocks have him slipping as far as #20 to Chicago.  As a Bulls fan, I would love to see that happen but I just can't imagine that someone with Plumlee's size, strength, ability to run the floor, and experience will slip that far.  The Sixers need frontcourt help in a big way with the disaster of the Andrew Bynum deal and Thaddeus Young's inability to grow into a steady power forward.

12.  Oklahoma City:  C.J. McCollum, PG/SG, Lehigh

Sticking with this one from 1.0.  McCollum is an explosive scoring guard who can both back up Russell Westbrook and play alongside him.  Don't sleep on Steven Adams here, but I think McCollum will be too enticing to pass up.

13.  Dallas: Dario Saric, SF, Croatia

Word is Dallas is looking to move this pick to clear the books for a run at Chris Paul or Dwight Howard, but this is about where Saric should go:  a long 3 with legit point forward skills.

14.  Utah: Dennis Schroeder, PG, Germany

A pure PG who reminds many of Rajon Rondo is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Jazz.

15.  Milwaukee:  Shane Larkin, PG, Miami

Larkin has dazzled, athletically, in workouts and at the Chicago combine.  The Bucks have yet to extend Brandon Jennings, and Larkin could give them some flexibility to move him.  Don't sleep on Russian sharpshooting small forward Sergey Karasev here, either.

16.  Boston: Sergey Karasev, SG/SF, Russia

A sharpshooter with enough size and athleticism to play either the 2 or 3.  A surprising level of polish and experience for a 19 year-old.

17.  Atlanta:  Giannis Adetokuompo, SF, Greece

Perhaps the best upside of any player in the draft. The "Greek Freak" likely will not play in the NBA for 2-3 years, but he has incredible length and athleticism for a small forward and actually plays point guard for his Greek league club.  If you want to take a shot at finding another Scottie Pippen at the same age, this is your chance.

18.  Atlanta:  Shabazz Muhammad, SG/SF, UCLA

After coming into college with a ton of hype, now observers are fixated on the potential weaknesses in his game. But he's a polished scorer who is just too good a value for Atlanta to pass up here - complementing the boom-or-bust choice a pick earlier.

19.  Cleveland:  Steven Adams, C, Pitt

They would have loved Muhammad or Karasev here, but Adams isn't a bad consolation prize.  A good athlete with true center size, and a top-shelf motor and work ethic. His offensive game is a work in progress, but he has a chance to develop into a top defensive center.

20.  Chicago: Gorgui Dieng, PF/C, Louisville

Another one steady since Mock 1.0.  Ready to give the Bulls solid bench minutes right away, and this is what they need.  It would, however, be very interesting if Karasev or Muhammad were to slip.

21.  Utah:  Kelly Olynyk, PF/C, Gonzaga

Olynyk is a wildcard who could go anywhere from the late lottery to the mid-20's.  A big man with an unconventional but impressive skill set, he was an outstanding college player who would be a solid get along with Schroeder.

22.  Brooklyn:  Jamaal Franklin, SG, San Diego State

He led the Aztecs in PTS, REB, AST, STL, I think even HR and RBI....  a classic do-everything wing who could be a steal if he straightens out his jumper.  He would give the Nets the flexibility to play Joe Johnson at the 3 and Gerald Wallace at the 4.

23.  Indiana:  Rudy Gobert, C, France

The Pacers suddenly have dreams of contention, and would have probably loved to see  Larkin slip this far so they could upgrade from George Hill at the point, or Karasev so they could add some much-needed perimeter shooting.  But absent someone who could give immediate help, Gobert has size and length you can't teach - a Roy Hibbert in training wheels.  Tim Hardaway Jr. is a possibility here.

24.  New York:  Tony Mitchell, F, North Texas

There seems to be a small consensus building around this pick.  He brings top-end athleticism, defense, and rebounding a very high overall upside.  He's a boom-or-bust pick, but absent anyone who is sure to crack the Knicks' rotation, there is no reason not to swing for the fences here.

25.  L.A. Clippers:  Tim Hardaway Jr., SG, Michigan

The Clips need shooting, and Hardaway has earned high marks for his marksmanship, as well as his intensity and professionalism.  He has ideal size for the 2, but his defense and his game off the bounce are works in progress.  He's unlikely to be a star, but his floor is rising, which makes him a good bet to be a complementary contributor on a competitive team.

26.  Minnesota:  Glen Rice Jr., SG/SF, D-League

He has character issues in his past, but he dominated the D-League last season and brings the kind of athleticism and perimeter shooting the T'Wolves desperately need.

27. Denver: Lucas Nogeuira, C, Brazil

Unlikely to find a player who will crack their rotation right away, this is another team that can shoot for upside.  The team that drafted Nene can now try their hand with "Bebe", a rail-thin athletic freak who could be a Marcus Camby type of defensive dominator in time.

28.  San Antonio:  Allen Crabbe, SG, California

Projected by most to go a bit higher, so this is a solid value pick.  Since Manu Ginobili and Matt Bonner can't play forever, new shooting has to come from somewhere.

29.  Oklahoma City:  Mouhammadou Jaiteh, C, France

A young, physically impressive big man who won't be here for a little while yet.  The Thunder can wait. A McCollum/Jaiteh draft for a team that is already a championship contender seems almost unfair.

30. Phoenix:  Reggie Bullock, SG/SF, North Carolina

A high-floor, low-ceiling pick.  He's mostly just a shooter on offense, but he can guard two positions and should be a nice piece (and nice complement to Victor Oladipo).  Like Oladipo, he should be able to get on the floor early.