Friday, March 18, 2011

The Backstretch

Let's take a look at the Bulls' remaining 15 games:

@ Indiana (29-39)
vs. Sacramento (16-50)
@ Atlanta (39-29)
vs. Memphis (37-32)
@ Milwaukee (26-41)
vs. Philadelphia (35-33)
@ Minnesota (17-52)
@ Detroit (24-44)
vs. Toronto (18-49)
vs. Phoenix (33-33)
vs. Boston (48-18)
@ Cleveland (14-54)
@ Orlando (43-26)
@ New York (35-32)
vs. New Jersey (22-44)

Miami is currently 4 back of the Bulls in the loss column - which is functionally 5 games, as the Bulls own the tiebreaker by virtue of sweeping the season series with the Two-And-A-Half Men.

The Bulls have the best record in the NBA against winning teams. Let's assume the Bulls beat all the losing teams left on their schedule and lose all five games against the winning teams...

... Miami would have to run the table to catch the Bulls.

It's not going to happen.

How about Boston, who is currently tied with the Bulls in the loss column? What does their remaining schedule look like?

@ Houston
@ New Orleans
@ New York
vs. Memphis
vs. Charlotte
@ Minnesota
@ Indiana
@ San Antonio
@ Atlanta
vs. Detroit
vs. Philadelphia
@ BULLS
vs. Washington
@ Miami
@ Washington
vs. New York

For starters, the Celtics have 10 remaining road games to the Bulls' 8. And they have 9 games remaining against winning teams to the Bulls' 5. They have 5 remaining road games against winning teams, the Bulls only have 3.

Barring any serious slip-ups beyond just losing a bad game (or even two)... the Bulls are very much in the catbird's seat for the top seed in the Eastern Conference. And this is huge. It means you get Indiana or Charlotte in the first round instead of the Knicks or Sixers. And it means Miami and Boston can duke it out in the second round, while the Bulls would get the Atlanta/Orlando winner.

There are no guarantees, but the Bulls have some well-paved road between them and the East Finals right now...

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