After retreating in shame in the wake of my sorry mock draft performance (in my defense, this draft was screwy and bad), the Memo took an offseason hiatus.
But now that Derrick Bowie has fallen again, it's time to come back and play GM.
After a second knee injury which will result in Rose having only played 49 games in three years, we now can no longer assume that we will ever see the old Derrick Rose. He should eventually be good again. He may even be very good, an All-Star. But we're now past the point where Rose can be looked upon as the sole centerpiece of a Championship contender.
It was not unreasonable, with the emergence of Jimmy Butler and the impending arrival of Nikola Mirotic, to look at keeping the current Bulls team together as a viable option for remaining a contender, especially with the possible breakup of the Heat in the next year or two. It does not seem likely LeBron James will cast his lot with an aging, declining Wade, Bosh, no cap space, and no high draft picks. However, with uncertainty surrounding Rose's future, there may not be enough "prime" left in Luol Deng and Joakim Noah to offer enough of a window as a contender.
Unfortunately, even letting Deng walk in free agency and using the amnesty clause to unload the last year of Carlos Boozer's contract still does not open up a max salary slot for the Bulls. Over $50 million will be committed to Rose, Noah, Gibson, Butler, Dunleavy, Snell, Murphy, Teague and Mirotic. Yes, you could do some salary dumps and probably get there, but the free agent route has not been kind to the Bulls even if you could. Jerry Krause came away with Ron Mercer and Brad Miller from the Tim Duncan/Grant Hill/Tracy McGrady/Eddie Jones class, and John Paxson came away with Carlos Boozer from the LeBron/Wade/Bosh/David Lee class. The sad fact is that as great a city as Chicago is, players who have the choice on where to go almost never choose a cold-weather city unless it's New York. So even if the Bulls could clear out enough room for a max player to pair with Rose, landing LeBron or Melo or Kevin Love is pretty much a pipe dream anyway.
The Bulls need to maximize their chance to get Rose a running mate or two through the draft, and they need to do it right freakin' now as we head towards the best draft since the 2003 affair that gave us LeBron, Melo, Bosh, Wade, David West and others.
The Bulls need to get bad. Immediately. And here's how.
Trade #1: Luol Deng and Marquis Teague (to make the salaries work) to Brooklyn for Paul Pierce and Mason Plumlee
The Nets don't defend anyone, and even a young and athletic Pierce was not known for his D. With the Nets, the 36 year-old is averaging only 13.2 points per game on a woeful 39% shooting. For this year, Deng would be a huge upgrade, and the Nets would inherit Deng's Larry Bird rights so they could re-sign him next summer. Pierce, too, has an expiring contract, and the Bulls get a young, athletic big man in Plumlee out of the exchange. In all likelihood, Pierce would be released so he could catch on as a bench player for a contender and not accidentally win the Bulls any games.
Trade #2: Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer to the Lakers for Pau Gasol, Chris Kaman and a #1 pick
Having extended Kobe Bryant, the Lakers have now taken themselves out of the free agent market and committed to trying to keep a competitive roster around him. Noah and Boozer come as a plug-and-play frontcourt that represents a significant upgrade over Gasol and Kaman - both of whose expiring contracts can be flipped. Ergo...
Trade #3: Gasol to Boston, Kris Humphries and Kelly Olynyk to Houston, Omer Asik to the Bulls
The Celtics would now have a very good frontcourt in Jeff Green, Gerald Wallace and Gasol. When Rajon Rondo returns, they could potentially be a factor in the East.
Omer Asik and Dwight Howard have not worked together in Houston, and the Rockets badly want to be rid of Asik's $15 million balloon next year. A face-up big man like Olynyk would be a nice complement to Howard, while Humphries' expiring deal relieves them of Asik's onerous deal.
The Bulls get Asik back, along with his Larry Bird rights, and he is potentially their center going forward.
Trade #4: Taj Gibson to San Antonio for Boris Diaw, Marco Belinelli and a #1 pick
This is a straight salary dump for the Bulls. Gibson would be a nice upgrade as part of a 3-man rotation up front for the Spurs as they ride out their last year or two as a Championship contender. The Bulls get Diaw's expiring deal, Belinelli and a late first rounder for their trouble.
Trade #5: Belinelli, Mike Dunleavy Jr., and the Spurs' #1 pick to Philadelphia for Elliot Williams and Brandon Davies
The Sixers are swimming in cap space - they have room now and they have enough room for two max players next summer even if they absorb $6 million in Dunleavy and Belinelli. The Bulls give them the Spurs' pick just to take them of their hands. Williams and Davies are nobodies with small, expiring deals.
Trade #6: Kirk Hinrich and Chris Kaman to Atlanta for Elton Brand and Dennis Schroeder
Atlanta is competitive and unlikely to be part of this year's lottery sweepstakes, so two veteran bench pieces could help keep them relevant - and since both Hinrich's and Kaman's deals are expiring, it doesn't constrain them for the future.
Schroeder is a quick young point guard with some potential who nonetheless is not contributing now - and the Hawks have signed Jeff Teague long term. Brand is an expiring deal who is not playing.
So where does all this leave the Bulls?
Well, for the rest of this year, it creates a delightfully-awful starting lineup of Mike James, Tony Snell, Jimmy Butler, Boris Diaw, and Omer Asik. Dennis Schroeder, Elton Brand, Erik Murphy, Mason Plumlee, Nazr Mohammed, and a couple of guys you pick up off the street will close out the roster.
You have now successfully become the worst team in the NBA and managed to get way out of the luxury tax, too.
Going forward, you have the following salaries committed for next year:
Rose $18.862
Asik $14.898
Butler $2.119
Plumlee $1.357
Schroeder $1.691
Snell $1.473
Total salary commitment: $40.4 million, plus whatever you end up paying Nikola Mirotic and your draft picks. So you won't have a max slot this summer, but you can get one in the summer of 2015 - which may be the next "big" free agent summer - when Asik's deal expires or the Bulls extend him at a lower number than his 2014-15 balloon.
In addition, the Bulls would have what will almost surely be a top four pick in a draft that includes high-probability impact talents like Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Julius Randle, Marcus Smart, Dante Exum and Aaron Gordon.
On top of that, the Bulls would have the Lakers' pick, which will likely be in the 15-20 range.
And you still have the Charlotte pick in the hopper, whenever that comes!
The Bulls would now have more than enough assets to do a rapid rebuild to contention in just the summers of 2014 and 2015. You can get the roster primed for the four seasons when Derrick Rose will be 27, 28, 29 and 30.
Get on it, GarPax.
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
Tuesday, June 25, 2013
MOCK What You Don't Understand v3.0
There will probably be a 3.1 on Draft Day Afternoon, but for now, here's another pass at it while reading all the tea leaves that are out there.
Sometimes you have to try to be clairvoyant: how much of the inside info is out there because a team wants it out there to move the market? You game out who might want to inflate or deflate a prospect's value and marry that with a read of each team's needs.
So without further ado, here we go...
1. Cleveland: Alex Len, C, Maryland
ESPN's Chad Ford is adamant this will still be Nerlens Noel, but everyone else seems to be saying Len right now. I'll be a lemming and go with the crowd.
2. Orlando: Nerlens Noel, C, Kentucky
There is a consensus out there that if the Cavs don't take Noel, the Magic will. This will create an interesting situation with Nikola Vucevic. Will Noel be a PF like his Kentucky predecessor, Anthony Davis, is in New Orleans? Or is Vucevic now a trade chip? We wait and see. Personally, I'd take Oladipo here. But no one seems to think that's happening if Noel is there.
3. Washington: Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown
This doesn't seem to change because it makes too much sense. Porter is a solid prospect and a local product at a position of need. SheridanHoops is convinced that the Wizards are going with Bennett here. It's not ridiculous... but I'm not sold yet. Let's monitor this one.
4. Charlotte: Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas
Truth is, I really like Victor Oladipo more, but there's no denying McLemore's skill set and athletic package. And the Bobcats/Hornets probably need a more prolific scorer between Kemba Walker and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.
5. Phoenix: Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana
A nice program-builder for the Suns and a nicer complement to this blog's namesake in the backcourt.
6. New Orleans: Trey Burke, PG, Michigan
Some reports say the Pelicans have given up on Austin Rivers. Some reports say they see him as a shooting guard. Some say they still believe in him as a point guard. Myself, I think it's too early to write him off as a player, but I think he's probably a long term combo guard off the bench. I never saw a top point guard there. There seems to be a consensus building around C.J. McCollum as the top PG in the draft, although I am always wary of the 6'3" scoring lead guard. (See: Austin Rivers...) So I'm sticking with Trey Burke here. He's too complete a package. If he were 3 inches taller, someone would trade up to #1 for him.
7. Sacramento: Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV
There is just too much Bennett can do for you. He shouldn't be here this late.
8. Detroit: Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse
Lots of people see McCollum here. I just don't see him working with Brandon Knight in a backcourt of two 6'3" guards. MCW has rare size, a pure PG approach, and you can work on a jump shot. This just works.
9. Minnesota: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia
He seems to be moving up draft boards, and he's the best available player at Minnesota's greatest position of need.
10. Portland: Steven Adams, C, Pitt
The Kiwi has a lot going for him. His offense is a work in progress, but he has the body, the motor, and should be able to defend and rebound from Day One. With the jury still out on Meyers Leonard, this is too much value to pass up.
11. Philadelphia: Cody Zeller, PF/C, Indiana
Zeller probably belongs higher, but there isn't quite the fit in the top ten. You can play him at center in small lineups, power forward in big lineups. An impressive combination of size, athleticism, and skill His similarity to LaMarcus Aldridge is the only reason Portland doesn't take him at #10.
12. Oklahoma City: C.J. McCollum, PG/SG, Lehigh
I've had McCollum going here all along. He's a perfect fit: bench scoring, and you can play him with Russell Westbrook, or backing him up.
13. Dallas: Shane Larkin, PG, Miami
We're into the crapshoot stage of the draft. Dallas needs everything as they rebuild. Larkin, while small, tested well athletically, is a pure point guard, and can score, too.
14. Utah: Dennis Schroeder, PG, Germany
Some conflicting reports on Schroeder's stock, but PG is Utah's biggest "need" position. I think they pull the trigger.
15. Milwaukee: Sergey Karasev, SF, Russia
Perhaps the best shooter in the draft, and the Bucks badly need shooting - and a small forward.
16. Boston: Mason Plumlee, PF/C, Duke
With Doc Rivers gone, they are officially rebuilding. They're looking to move Garnett and Pierce. They may or may not keep Rondo. They'll likely just take the best player available, and in my opinion that's Plumlee. I'm bullish on his NBA outlook. "Plus" size and athleticism - I think he's a good starting PF in the league.
17. Atlanta: Shabazz Muhammad, SG, UCLA
The Hawks are re-tooling, and Muhammad - while most seem to think he lacks star potential at this point - is a fairly safe pick. This sets up...
18. Atlanta: Giannis Adetokuonbo, SF, Greece
The Greek Freak is the consummate boom-or-bust selection. Possessing rare length and athleticism, and some legitimate point guard skills at 6'9", he's also 18 and currently playing against competition that is one step above a pickup game at the JCC. He could be Scottie Pippen 5 years from now. He could also fail to ever make it to the league.
19. Cleveland: Glen Rice Jr., SG/SF, D-League
The Cavs would have loved for Karasev to fall here so they could fill the small forward position and stretch the floor for Kyrie Irving. Rice, like his father, can shoot the 3, and he's more athletic than Dad. He's not much off the bounce, but that's not what the Cavs need anyway. In one of the draft's oddest stories, the guy who got kicked off Georgia Tech's team and dominated the D-league ends up in a great situation in Cleveland.
20. Chicago: Tim Hardaway Jr., SG, Michigan
I had been on Gorgui Dieng here for a long time, but after watching how Indiana and San Antonio attacked Miami, I am coming around to the idea that the Bulls need to stretch the floor to beat the Heat. You're not going to get that second shot-maker here, but you can get someone who can pull a potential double-team away from Rose. Hardaway can shoot, and his intensity and professionalism that showed up in predraft workouts would seem to be a good fit with Tom Thibodeau's redline-all-the-time culture. And if anyone can find an adequate defender in Hardaway, it's Thibs. If Hardaway works out, in the wake of Jimmy Butler's emergence, it gives the Bulls the flexibility to move on from Luol Deng at some point and get a little younger around Derrick Rose.
21. Utah: Kelly Olynyk, C, Gonzaga
This is an excellent value pick here. Olynyk has a rare skill set for a 7-footer.
22. Brooklyn: Jamaal Franklin, SG, San Diego State
With Deron Williams and Joe Johnson more than happy to shoot, a do-everything, stat-sheet-stuffing wing is just what the doctor ordered for the Nets.
23. Indiana: Lucas Nogueira, C, Brazil
The Pacers need a point guard. There isn't one available here. And they're not likely to get an immediate contributor here. So they go for upside. Nogueira is a potential Marcus Camby close: long, rail thin, athletic, and a natural shot blocker. He won't be in Indy right away, but he's a potential long term option for Roy Hibbert.
24. New York: Isaiah Canaan, PG, Murray State
Ray Felton oscillates between looking like an All-Star and a nonfactor. The Knicks could use a little insurance here.
25. L.A. Clippers: Allen Crabbe, SG, Cal
Shooting guard is probably the Cavs' weakest position (now that they'd removed "Head Coach" from the list). Chris Paul and Blake Griffin could use a floor-stretcher.
26. Minnesota: Reggie Bullock, SF, North Carolina
No real star power here, but Bullock can defend at small forward and shoot the 3. Caldwell-Pope and Bullock upgrade the T-Wolves on the wings, and they should do so right away. Both are fairly safe picks, and Minnesota has had too many busts over the years to take a lot of chances now.
27. Denver: Nate Wolters, PG/SG, South Dakota State
Wolters is creeping up draft boards, it seems. Andre Miller has to stop at some point, Ty Lawson needs a backup, and in certain situations you may be able to play Lawson and Wolters together.
28. San Antonio: Gorgui Dieng, PF/C, Louisville
Tim Duncan can't play forever, Tiago Splitter is limited, and Dieng can defend, pass out of the high post, and may at some point make the foul-line jumper a reliable weapon.
29. Oklahoma City: Alex Abrines, SG, Spain
Realistically, no one the Thunder would take here would ever see the floor in the short term. Best to take the highest-upside Euro-stash they can find.
30. Phoenix: Tony Mitchell, SF/PF, North Texas
OK, so the Suns already have Kansas' Morris twins, but there's no indication yet that either is any good. Keep taking shots... eventually one will fall.
Sometimes you have to try to be clairvoyant: how much of the inside info is out there because a team wants it out there to move the market? You game out who might want to inflate or deflate a prospect's value and marry that with a read of each team's needs.
So without further ado, here we go...
1. Cleveland: Alex Len, C, Maryland
ESPN's Chad Ford is adamant this will still be Nerlens Noel, but everyone else seems to be saying Len right now. I'll be a lemming and go with the crowd.
2. Orlando: Nerlens Noel, C, Kentucky
There is a consensus out there that if the Cavs don't take Noel, the Magic will. This will create an interesting situation with Nikola Vucevic. Will Noel be a PF like his Kentucky predecessor, Anthony Davis, is in New Orleans? Or is Vucevic now a trade chip? We wait and see. Personally, I'd take Oladipo here. But no one seems to think that's happening if Noel is there.
3. Washington: Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown
This doesn't seem to change because it makes too much sense. Porter is a solid prospect and a local product at a position of need. SheridanHoops is convinced that the Wizards are going with Bennett here. It's not ridiculous... but I'm not sold yet. Let's monitor this one.
4. Charlotte: Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas
Truth is, I really like Victor Oladipo more, but there's no denying McLemore's skill set and athletic package. And the Bobcats/Hornets probably need a more prolific scorer between Kemba Walker and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.
5. Phoenix: Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana
A nice program-builder for the Suns and a nicer complement to this blog's namesake in the backcourt.
6. New Orleans: Trey Burke, PG, Michigan
Some reports say the Pelicans have given up on Austin Rivers. Some reports say they see him as a shooting guard. Some say they still believe in him as a point guard. Myself, I think it's too early to write him off as a player, but I think he's probably a long term combo guard off the bench. I never saw a top point guard there. There seems to be a consensus building around C.J. McCollum as the top PG in the draft, although I am always wary of the 6'3" scoring lead guard. (See: Austin Rivers...) So I'm sticking with Trey Burke here. He's too complete a package. If he were 3 inches taller, someone would trade up to #1 for him.
7. Sacramento: Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV
There is just too much Bennett can do for you. He shouldn't be here this late.
8. Detroit: Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse
Lots of people see McCollum here. I just don't see him working with Brandon Knight in a backcourt of two 6'3" guards. MCW has rare size, a pure PG approach, and you can work on a jump shot. This just works.
9. Minnesota: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia
He seems to be moving up draft boards, and he's the best available player at Minnesota's greatest position of need.
10. Portland: Steven Adams, C, Pitt
The Kiwi has a lot going for him. His offense is a work in progress, but he has the body, the motor, and should be able to defend and rebound from Day One. With the jury still out on Meyers Leonard, this is too much value to pass up.
11. Philadelphia: Cody Zeller, PF/C, Indiana
Zeller probably belongs higher, but there isn't quite the fit in the top ten. You can play him at center in small lineups, power forward in big lineups. An impressive combination of size, athleticism, and skill His similarity to LaMarcus Aldridge is the only reason Portland doesn't take him at #10.
12. Oklahoma City: C.J. McCollum, PG/SG, Lehigh
I've had McCollum going here all along. He's a perfect fit: bench scoring, and you can play him with Russell Westbrook, or backing him up.
13. Dallas: Shane Larkin, PG, Miami
We're into the crapshoot stage of the draft. Dallas needs everything as they rebuild. Larkin, while small, tested well athletically, is a pure point guard, and can score, too.
14. Utah: Dennis Schroeder, PG, Germany
Some conflicting reports on Schroeder's stock, but PG is Utah's biggest "need" position. I think they pull the trigger.
15. Milwaukee: Sergey Karasev, SF, Russia
Perhaps the best shooter in the draft, and the Bucks badly need shooting - and a small forward.
16. Boston: Mason Plumlee, PF/C, Duke
With Doc Rivers gone, they are officially rebuilding. They're looking to move Garnett and Pierce. They may or may not keep Rondo. They'll likely just take the best player available, and in my opinion that's Plumlee. I'm bullish on his NBA outlook. "Plus" size and athleticism - I think he's a good starting PF in the league.
17. Atlanta: Shabazz Muhammad, SG, UCLA
The Hawks are re-tooling, and Muhammad - while most seem to think he lacks star potential at this point - is a fairly safe pick. This sets up...
18. Atlanta: Giannis Adetokuonbo, SF, Greece
The Greek Freak is the consummate boom-or-bust selection. Possessing rare length and athleticism, and some legitimate point guard skills at 6'9", he's also 18 and currently playing against competition that is one step above a pickup game at the JCC. He could be Scottie Pippen 5 years from now. He could also fail to ever make it to the league.
19. Cleveland: Glen Rice Jr., SG/SF, D-League
The Cavs would have loved for Karasev to fall here so they could fill the small forward position and stretch the floor for Kyrie Irving. Rice, like his father, can shoot the 3, and he's more athletic than Dad. He's not much off the bounce, but that's not what the Cavs need anyway. In one of the draft's oddest stories, the guy who got kicked off Georgia Tech's team and dominated the D-league ends up in a great situation in Cleveland.
20. Chicago: Tim Hardaway Jr., SG, Michigan
I had been on Gorgui Dieng here for a long time, but after watching how Indiana and San Antonio attacked Miami, I am coming around to the idea that the Bulls need to stretch the floor to beat the Heat. You're not going to get that second shot-maker here, but you can get someone who can pull a potential double-team away from Rose. Hardaway can shoot, and his intensity and professionalism that showed up in predraft workouts would seem to be a good fit with Tom Thibodeau's redline-all-the-time culture. And if anyone can find an adequate defender in Hardaway, it's Thibs. If Hardaway works out, in the wake of Jimmy Butler's emergence, it gives the Bulls the flexibility to move on from Luol Deng at some point and get a little younger around Derrick Rose.
21. Utah: Kelly Olynyk, C, Gonzaga
This is an excellent value pick here. Olynyk has a rare skill set for a 7-footer.
22. Brooklyn: Jamaal Franklin, SG, San Diego State
With Deron Williams and Joe Johnson more than happy to shoot, a do-everything, stat-sheet-stuffing wing is just what the doctor ordered for the Nets.
23. Indiana: Lucas Nogueira, C, Brazil
The Pacers need a point guard. There isn't one available here. And they're not likely to get an immediate contributor here. So they go for upside. Nogueira is a potential Marcus Camby close: long, rail thin, athletic, and a natural shot blocker. He won't be in Indy right away, but he's a potential long term option for Roy Hibbert.
24. New York: Isaiah Canaan, PG, Murray State
Ray Felton oscillates between looking like an All-Star and a nonfactor. The Knicks could use a little insurance here.
25. L.A. Clippers: Allen Crabbe, SG, Cal
Shooting guard is probably the Cavs' weakest position (now that they'd removed "Head Coach" from the list). Chris Paul and Blake Griffin could use a floor-stretcher.
26. Minnesota: Reggie Bullock, SF, North Carolina
No real star power here, but Bullock can defend at small forward and shoot the 3. Caldwell-Pope and Bullock upgrade the T-Wolves on the wings, and they should do so right away. Both are fairly safe picks, and Minnesota has had too many busts over the years to take a lot of chances now.
27. Denver: Nate Wolters, PG/SG, South Dakota State
Wolters is creeping up draft boards, it seems. Andre Miller has to stop at some point, Ty Lawson needs a backup, and in certain situations you may be able to play Lawson and Wolters together.
28. San Antonio: Gorgui Dieng, PF/C, Louisville
Tim Duncan can't play forever, Tiago Splitter is limited, and Dieng can defend, pass out of the high post, and may at some point make the foul-line jumper a reliable weapon.
29. Oklahoma City: Alex Abrines, SG, Spain
Realistically, no one the Thunder would take here would ever see the floor in the short term. Best to take the highest-upside Euro-stash they can find.
30. Phoenix: Tony Mitchell, SF/PF, North Texas
OK, so the Suns already have Kansas' Morris twins, but there's no indication yet that either is any good. Keep taking shots... eventually one will fall.
Thursday, June 6, 2013
MOCK What You Don't Understand - v2.1
In the wake of Dario Saric surprisingly pulling out of the draft despite appearing to be a mid-first rounder and rising, we need to re-work the first round now...
1. Cleveland: Nerlens Noel, C, Kentucky
Still no reason to think the potential defensive game-changer is not the pick here.
2. Orlando: Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV
McLemore may have the best upside, but some question his approach to the game. Trey Burke was a fabulously productive player, but he's a hair under 6' tall. That's tough to bank on with the #2 pick. Oladipo is the surest best to contribute at the NBA level, but will his offensive game keep improving? (I'm a HUGE Oladipo fan and would personally take him this high.) But in the end, my gut says it's Bennett. If he were 2 inches taller he would clearly be the top player in this draft. His ability to face up, stretch the floor, or go in the low post is too compelling, and will fit well with the prolific rebounding of Nikola Vucevic.
3. Washington: Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown
Still too perfect a fit.
4. Charlotte: Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas
A gift that he falls to Hornets here. Slotting him between the improving Kemba Walker and the developing Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is the foundation for getting something going at long last in Charlotte
5. Phoenix: Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana
Still a perfect backcourt complement to Goran Dragic, and a high quality building block for the Suns.
6. New Orleans: Alex Len, C, Maryland
Per ESPN's Chad Ford, the Pelicans have not given up hope on Austin Rivers as a point guard, are comfortable with "The General" Greivis Vazquez in the interim, and view Anthony Davis as a PF. Len might have gone #1 but not for his injury.
7. Sacramento: Trey Burke, PG, Michigan
There seems to be a consensus out there on this pick right now. The Kings don't have an answer at the point with Isaiah Thomas or Jimmer Fredette, and Tyreke Evans is probably best suited to a role as a combo guard off the bench. A Kings team badly in need of some stability would love if a polished floor general like Burke slipped to them. I would not, however, sleep on Cody Zeller in this spot...
8. Detroit: Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse
Sticking with this one. MCW is just too nice a fit with the more scoring-minded Brandon Knight in the backcourt. He also adds top-end athleticism and a pure PG's orientation to a Pistons team badly in need of both.
9. Minnesota: Cody Zeller, PF/C, Indiana
With Kevin Love and the now-emerged Nikola Pekovic manning the frontcourt, and a major dearth of skill and athleticism at the 2 and 3, this would seem like a strange pick for Flip Saunders and the T'Wolves. But Zeller is simply the best player available, opening eyes with his three-point shooting and athleticism in workouts, and I think the more one-on-one style of game in the NBA will suit Zeller's skill set better than the 5-foul, muddled interior of the college game. Zeller should be able to play either frontcourt position and may ultimately give the T'Wolves the flexibility to move Love or Pekovic for better wing help than this draft can offer them.
10. Portland: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia
A shooter who seems to be moving up draft boards. He slots in nicely between Damian Lillard and Nicolas Batum.
11. Philadelphia: Mason Plumlee, PF/C, Duke
Some mocks have him slipping as far as #20 to Chicago. As a Bulls fan, I would love to see that happen but I just can't imagine that someone with Plumlee's size, strength, ability to run the floor, and experience will slip that far. The Sixers need frontcourt help in a big way in the wake of the disastrous Andrew Bynum deal.
12. Oklahoma City: C.J. McCollum, PG/SG, Lehigh
Sticking with this one from 1.0. McCollum is an explosive scoring guard who can both back up Russell Westbrook and play alongside him. Don't sleep on Steven Adams here, but I think McCollum will be too enticing to pass up.
13. Dallas: Dennis Schroeder, PG, Germany
Lightning-quick playmaker joins his countryman, Dirk, in Dallas.
Lightning-quick playmaker joins his countryman, Dirk, in Dallas.
14. Utah: Shane Larkin, PG, Miami
Larkin has dazzled, athletically, in workouts and at the Chicago combine. Utah's biggest need is at the point.
15. Milwaukee: Sergey Karasev, SG/SF, Russia
A sharpshooter with enough size and athleticism to play either the 2 or 3. A surprising level of polish and experience for a 19 year-old.
16. Boston: Shabazz Muhammad, SG/SF, UCLA
After coming into college with a ton of hype, now observers are fixated on the potential weaknesses in his game. But he's a polished scorer who is just too good a value for Boston to pass up here.
17. Atlanta: Giannis Adetokuompo, SF, Greece
Perhaps the best upside of any player in the draft. The "Greek Freak" likely will not play in the NBA for 2-3 years, but he has incredible length and athleticism for a small forward and actually plays point guard for his Greek league club. If you want to take a shot at finding another Scottie Pippen at the same age, this is your chance.
18. Atlanta: Jamaal Franklin, SG, San Diego State
He led the Aztecs in PTS, REB, AST, STL, I think even HR and RBI.... a classic do-everything wing who could be a steal if he straightens out his jumper.
19. Cleveland: Steven Adams, C, Pitt
They would have loved Muhammad or Karasev here, but Adams isn't a bad consolation prize. A good athlete with true center size, and a top-shelf motor and work ethic. His offensive game is a work in progress, but he has a chance to develop into a top defensive center.
20. Chicago: Gorgui Dieng, PF/C, Louisville
Another one steady since Mock 1.0. Ready to give the Bulls solid bench minutes right away, and this is what they need. It would, however, be very interesting if Karasev or Muhammad were to slip.
21. Utah: Kelly Olynyk, PF/C, Gonzaga
Olynyk is a wildcard who could go anywhere from the late lottery to the mid-20's. A big man with an unconventional but impressive skill set, he was an outstanding college player who would be a solid get along with Larkin.
22. Brooklyn: Reggie Bullock, SG/SF, North Carolina
A high-floor, low-ceiling pick. He's mostly just a shooter on offense, but he can guard two positions and should be a nice piece. The Nets are in a "win-now" mode and need someone who can contribute quickly, even if he's a role player.
23. Indiana: Rudy Gobert, C, France
The Pacers suddenly have dreams of contention, and would have probably loved to see Larkin slip this far so they could upgrade from George Hill at the point, or Karasev so they could add some much-needed perimeter shooting. But absent someone who could give immediate help, Gobert has size and length you can't teach - a Roy Hibbert in training wheels. Tim Hardaway Jr. is a possibility here.
24. New York: Tony Mitchell, F, North Texas
There seems to be a small consensus building around this pick. He brings top-end athleticism, defense, and rebounding a very high overall upside. He's a boom-or-bust pick, but absent anyone who is sure to crack the Knicks' rotation, there is no reason not to swing for the fences here.
25. L.A. Clippers: Tim Hardaway Jr., SG, Michigan
The Clips need shooting, and Hardaway has earned high marks for his marksmanship, as well as his intensity and professionalism. He has ideal size for the 2, but his defense and his game off the bounce are works in progress. He's unlikely to be a star, but his floor is rising, which makes him a good bet to be a complementary contributor on a competitive team.
26. Minnesota: Glen Rice Jr., SG/SF, D-League
He has character issues in his past, but he dominated the D-League last season and brings the kind of athleticism and perimeter shooting the T'Wolves desperately need.
27. Denver: Lucas Nogueira, C, Brazil
Unlikely to find a player who will crack their rotation right away, this is another team that can shoot for upside. The team that drafted Nene can now try their hand with "Bebe", a rail-thin athletic freak who could be a Marcus Camby type of defensive dominator in time.
28. San Antonio: Allen Crabbe, SG, California
Projected by most to go a bit higher, so this is a solid value pick. Since Manu Ginobili and Matt Bonner can't play forever, new shooting has to come from somewhere.
29. Oklahoma City: Mouhammadou Jaiteh, C, France
A young, physically impressive big man who won't be here for a little while yet. The Thunder can wait. A McCollum/Jaiteh draft for a team that is already a championship contender seems almost unfair.
30. Phoenix: Tony Snell, SG/SF, New Mexico
A long, catch-and-shoot wing with some upside.
Tuesday, June 4, 2013
MOCK What You Don't Understand v2.0
There are some new tea leaves out there as we see who is thought to be moving up and moving down.
Orlando is clearly the wildcard in the top half of the lottery. They could still go with Ben McLemore, Trey Burke, Anthony Bennett or Victor Oladipo. That they do not appear fixated on McLemore could be legit, or it could be that they are not in love with any one option and want to see if someone makes them a solid offer to move down. If Minnesota were willing to part to the #9 and #26 picks along with Derrick Williams for #2, would Orlando bite?
But that notwithstanding, let's take another run at this...
1. Cleveland: Nerlens Noel, C, Kentucky
Still no reason to think the potential defensive game-changer is not the pick here.
2. Orlando: Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV
McLemore may have the best upside, but some question his approach to the game. Trey Burke was a fabulously productive player, but he's a hair under 6' tall. That's tough to bank on with the #2 pick. Oladipo is the surest best to contribute at the NBA level, but will his offensive game keep improving? (I'm a HUGE Oladipo fan and would personally take him this high.) But in the end, my gut says it's Bennett. If he were 2 inches taller he would clearly be the top player in this draft. His ability to face up, stretch the floor, or go in the low post is too compelling, and will fit well with the prolific rebounding of Nikola Vucevic.
3. Washington: Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown
Still too perfect a fit.
4. Charlotte: Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas
A gift that he falls to Hornets here. Slotting him between the improving Kemba Walker and the developing Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is the foundation for getting something going at long last in Charlotte
5. Phoenix: Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana
Still a perfect backcourt complement to Goran Dragic, and a high quality building block for the Suns.
6. New Orleans: Alex Len, C, Maryland
Per ESPN's Chad Ford, the Pelicans have not given up hope on Austin Rivers as a point guard, are comfortable with "The General" Greivis Vazquez in the interim, and view Anthony Davis as a PF. Len might have gone #1 but not for his injury.
7. Sacramento: Trey Burke, PG, Michigan
There seems to be a consensus out there on this pick right now. The Kings don't have an answer at the point with Isaiah Thomas or Jimmer Fredette, and Tyreke Evans is probably best suited to a role as a combo guard off the bench. A Kings team badly in need of some stability would love if a polished floor general like Burke slipped to them. I would not, however, sleep on Cody Zeller in this spot...
8. Detroit: Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse
Sticking with this one. MCW is just too perfect a fit with the more scoring-minded Brandon Knight in the backcourt. He also adds top-end athleticism and a pure PG's orientation to a Pistons team badly in need of both.
9. Minnesota: Cody Zeller, PF/C, Indiana
With Kevin Love and the now-emerged Nikola Pekovic manning the frontcourt, and a major dearth of skill and athleticism at the 2 and 3, this would seem like a strange pick for Flip Saunders and the T'Wolves. But Zeller is simply the best player available, opening eyes with his three-point shooting and athleticism in workouts, and I think the more one-on-one style of game in the NBA will suit Zeller's skill set better than the 5-foul, muddled interior of the college game. Zeller should be able to play either frontcourt position and may ultimately give the T'Wolves the flexibility to move Love or Pekovic for better wing help than this draft can offer them.
10. Portland: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
A shooter who seems to be moving up draft boards. He slots in nicely between Damian Lillard and Nicolas Batum.
11. Philadelphia: Mason Plumlee, PF/C, Duke
Some mocks have him slipping as far as #20 to Chicago. As a Bulls fan, I would love to see that happen but I just can't imagine that someone with Plumlee's size, strength, ability to run the floor, and experience will slip that far. The Sixers need frontcourt help in a big way with the disaster of the Andrew Bynum deal and Thaddeus Young's inability to grow into a steady power forward.
12. Oklahoma City: C.J. McCollum, PG/SG, Lehigh
Sticking with this one from 1.0. McCollum is an explosive scoring guard who can both back up Russell Westbrook and play alongside him. Don't sleep on Steven Adams here, but I think McCollum will be too enticing to pass up.
13. Dallas: Dario Saric, SF, Croatia
Word is Dallas is looking to move this pick to clear the books for a run at Chris Paul or Dwight Howard, but this is about where Saric should go: a long 3 with legit point forward skills.
14. Utah: Dennis Schroeder, PG, Germany
A pure PG who reminds many of Rajon Rondo is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Jazz.
15. Milwaukee: Shane Larkin, PG, Miami
Larkin has dazzled, athletically, in workouts and at the Chicago combine. The Bucks have yet to extend Brandon Jennings, and Larkin could give them some flexibility to move him. Don't sleep on Russian sharpshooting small forward Sergey Karasev here, either.
16. Boston: Sergey Karasev, SG/SF, Russia
A sharpshooter with enough size and athleticism to play either the 2 or 3. A surprising level of polish and experience for a 19 year-old.
17. Atlanta: Giannis Adetokuompo, SF, Greece
Perhaps the best upside of any player in the draft. The "Greek Freak" likely will not play in the NBA for 2-3 years, but he has incredible length and athleticism for a small forward and actually plays point guard for his Greek league club. If you want to take a shot at finding another Scottie Pippen at the same age, this is your chance.
18. Atlanta: Shabazz Muhammad, SG/SF, UCLA
After coming into college with a ton of hype, now observers are fixated on the potential weaknesses in his game. But he's a polished scorer who is just too good a value for Atlanta to pass up here - complementing the boom-or-bust choice a pick earlier.
19. Cleveland: Steven Adams, C, Pitt
They would have loved Muhammad or Karasev here, but Adams isn't a bad consolation prize. A good athlete with true center size, and a top-shelf motor and work ethic. His offensive game is a work in progress, but he has a chance to develop into a top defensive center.
20. Chicago: Gorgui Dieng, PF/C, Louisville
Another one steady since Mock 1.0. Ready to give the Bulls solid bench minutes right away, and this is what they need. It would, however, be very interesting if Karasev or Muhammad were to slip.
21. Utah: Kelly Olynyk, PF/C, Gonzaga
Olynyk is a wildcard who could go anywhere from the late lottery to the mid-20's. A big man with an unconventional but impressive skill set, he was an outstanding college player who would be a solid get along with Schroeder.
22. Brooklyn: Jamaal Franklin, SG, San Diego State
He led the Aztecs in PTS, REB, AST, STL, I think even HR and RBI.... a classic do-everything wing who could be a steal if he straightens out his jumper. He would give the Nets the flexibility to play Joe Johnson at the 3 and Gerald Wallace at the 4.
23. Indiana: Rudy Gobert, C, France
The Pacers suddenly have dreams of contention, and would have probably loved to see Larkin slip this far so they could upgrade from George Hill at the point, or Karasev so they could add some much-needed perimeter shooting. But absent someone who could give immediate help, Gobert has size and length you can't teach - a Roy Hibbert in training wheels. Tim Hardaway Jr. is a possibility here.
24. New York: Tony Mitchell, F, North Texas
There seems to be a small consensus building around this pick. He brings top-end athleticism, defense, and rebounding a very high overall upside. He's a boom-or-bust pick, but absent anyone who is sure to crack the Knicks' rotation, there is no reason not to swing for the fences here.
25. L.A. Clippers: Tim Hardaway Jr., SG, Michigan
The Clips need shooting, and Hardaway has earned high marks for his marksmanship, as well as his intensity and professionalism. He has ideal size for the 2, but his defense and his game off the bounce are works in progress. He's unlikely to be a star, but his floor is rising, which makes him a good bet to be a complementary contributor on a competitive team.
26. Minnesota: Glen Rice Jr., SG/SF, D-League
He has character issues in his past, but he dominated the D-League last season and brings the kind of athleticism and perimeter shooting the T'Wolves desperately need.
27. Denver: Lucas Nogeuira, C, Brazil
Unlikely to find a player who will crack their rotation right away, this is another team that can shoot for upside. The team that drafted Nene can now try their hand with "Bebe", a rail-thin athletic freak who could be a Marcus Camby type of defensive dominator in time.
28. San Antonio: Allen Crabbe, SG, California
Projected by most to go a bit higher, so this is a solid value pick. Since Manu Ginobili and Matt Bonner can't play forever, new shooting has to come from somewhere.
29. Oklahoma City: Mouhammadou Jaiteh, C, France
A young, physically impressive big man who won't be here for a little while yet. The Thunder can wait. A McCollum/Jaiteh draft for a team that is already a championship contender seems almost unfair.
30. Phoenix: Reggie Bullock, SG/SF, North Carolina
A high-floor, low-ceiling pick. He's mostly just a shooter on offense, but he can guard two positions and should be a nice piece (and nice complement to Victor Oladipo). Like Oladipo, he should be able to get on the floor early.
Friday, May 24, 2013
MOCK What You Don't Understand
With the lottery done, it's time to take a crack at my first mock draft of the year. This year is tough because Cleveland could take Nerlens Noel or Otto Porter at #1, and either option creates a radically different lottery.
Predictably, the Cavs are playing it close to the vest. I'll do my best to jump into their heads at this point and take it from there.
1. Cleveland: Nerlens Noel, C, Kentucky
Ultimately, while Porter is a very good prospect who has a fairly high floor, he doesn't set himself apart as a prospect you just can't afford to pass on. Noel, on the other hand, has a chance to be a game-changer on the defensive end. If you're going to compare him to a current or former NBA player, I would compare him to Theo Ratliff, who for a decade was one of the game's pre-eminent defensive big men. These guys don't come around all that often (although this is the second straight year one of them is coming out of Kentucky...) At any rate, until someone convinces me it's Porter, this is my guess.
2. Orlando: Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas
You can make a case for Trey Burke here, as the thoroughly average Jameer Nelson has only one year left on his contract. But McLemore has all the classic NBA shooting guard skills, and not being undersized for his position gives him more reliable upside than Burke, at a position that is as big a need as point guard.
3. Washington: Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown
And he doesn't even have to leave town! The Wiz have their long-term backcourt set with John Wall and Bradley Beal. Anthony Bennett is a possibility here, as that is also a position of need, but at #3 you can't really pass up on Porter.
4. Charlotte: Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV
The Hornets (yes, we can say that again!) need skill and athleticism in the frontcourt, and Bennett brings plenty. His body type is definitely that of a power forward, although ideally you'd like him to be a couple of inches taller. But the Canadian can handle, shoot, and has a legit back to the basket game.
5. Phoenix: Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana
Oladipo is a top level athlete who projects to be an elite defender, but it's the emergence of his offensive game that has vaulted him up draft boards. Even top shooting guards like Tim Hardaway Jr. and Brandon Paul had a hard time stopping Oladipo off the dribble, and his three point shot reached a surprising level of refinement. Because of his defense, you could argue that he's a safer bet than even McLemore... and if his offensive game continues to progress, he could be a major piece for the Suns.
6. New Orleans: Trey Burke, PG, Michigan
Burke took incredible strides as a sophomore under John Beilein, progressing from a scoring lead guard to a true playmaker, someone who could run an offense while also possessing the ability to take over a game. He is already a plus three-point shooter, and despite his size he is a handful in the lane who can get all the way to the rim even at a hair under 6' tall. His defense improved mightily as a sophomore, as well. If he were three inches taller, he would be the clear #2 pick in this draft. As it is, the Pelicans should have a long term starter in Burke.
7. Sacramento: Cody Zeller, PF/C, Indiana
I have long believed that Zeller would make a better pro than he was a college player, as NBA 4's are going to have a hard time dealing with Zeller both on the perimeter and in the post. Zeller showed in Chicago that he's plenty athletic to match up with power forwards, and as he adds strength he should be able to give minutes at center, too. He's a nice insurance policy for the Demarcus Cousins wild card, and a compelling player to pair with Cousins in a potentially imposing frontcourt.
8. Detroit: Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse
C.J. McCollum is a popular pick here, but I can't see the Pistons going for another 6'3", score-first combo guard. MCW has incredible size and athleticism for the position, and he's a true point guard. If he develops the same court sense, he could be a bigger Rajon Rondo. And if he fixes his jump shot - which recent testing suggests may be happening - his upside is almost unlimited. He would make an ideal backcourt mate for Brandon Knight.
9. Minnesota: Shabazz Muhammad, SG/SF, UCLA
Minnesota needs athleticism on the wings. Muhammad is not an elite wing athlete. But he can score, and the T'Wolves need someone who can do that, too. Muhammad may only be a scorer, but he lacks the baggage of someone like Michael Beasley. In a perfect world, Oladipo is the guy Minnesota would want here, and for that reason the T'Wolves might be a candidate to trade up.
10. Portland: Alex Len, C, Maryland
The jury remains out on Meyers Leonard, and you can never have too much size. With Damian Lillard, Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum, the Blazers are pretty set outside. Len, a pure low-post center, would be a nice complement to the face-up game of LaMarcus Aldridge.
11. Philadelphia: Mason Plumlee, PF/C, Duke
Philly needs size, and Plumlee is both big and athletic. He can play in the low post, and run the floor with almost any big man in the game.
12. Oklahoma City: C.J. McCollum, PG/SG, Lehigh
This is both good value and a good fit. McCollum could back up Russell Westbrook as well as play with him, providing the backcourt scoring that James Harden took with him to Houston.
13. Dallas: Dennis Schroeder, PG, Germany
This 19 year-old emerged late with lightning quickness, a pure point guard's skills, and a competent jump shot. Who better to usher him into the NBA than countryman Dirk Nowitzki? Dallas is heading into a rebuilding phase, and Schroeder has the potential to grow into a fixture.
14. Utah: Dario Saric, SF, Croatia
With a need at the point, the Jazz would have loved to see Schroeder or Carter-Williams still on the board here. Instead they go for the upside of this versatile, 19 year-old import. At 6'10", Saric possesses some real point-forward skills, a streaky jumper that should improve, and a basketball IQ perhaps unmatched in the draft.
15. Milwaukee: Sergey Karasev, SF, Russia
Milwaukee needs shooting (even after acquiring JJ Redick), and the small forward position is the Bucks' most unsettled. Karasev may be the best shooter in the draft.
16. Boston: Giannis Adetokuompo, SF, Greece
Adetokuompo is perhaps the most intriguing player in the draft. A long, athletic freak at 6'9", he often plays point guard for his Greek league team. Incredibly raw at only 18 years old, Giannis is likely to be stashed in Europe for 2-3 years... making him ready to come over right as Boston's rebuilding is in full swing. There is no one at #16 that will be an immediate boon to a rebuilding team, so this is a perfect opportunity for the Celtics to shoot for the stars.
17. Atlanta: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia
Good size, solid athleticism, solid shooting, and the ability to create make Caldwell-Pope an intriguing choice for a rebuilding Hawks team. He still needs to improve as a finisher and on the defensive end, but with the right coaching, the upside is there.
18. Atlanta: Kelly Olynyk, PF/C, Gonzaga
Olynyk has an impressive skill game for a player of his size, able to shoot from the perimeter and dribble-drive. Too good a value to pass up here.
19. Cleveland: Reggie Bullock, SF, North Carolina
Not a sexy pick, and probably a reach here (which makes the Cavs a candidate to trade down), but Bullock would slot in nicely at the 3 between Tristan Thompson and Dion Waiters. Bullock has size and length, making him an above average defender at a premium NBA position, and he's a terrific standstill jump shooter to stretch the floor for Uncle Drew.
20. Chicago: Gorgui Dieng, PF/C, Louisville
A lot depends on whether the Bulls think they will be able to retain Marco Belinelli. Not possessing his Larry Bird rights, the Bulls - in luxury tax territory - can only sign minimum-salary players. Belinelli probably played himself into more market value, however he has a very good role as the third wing on a potential contender. If he leaves, I would look for Michigan's Tim Hardaway Jr. in this spot. But for now, Dieng would give the Bulls an extra big man who can give them some of what they lost when Houston pried Omer Asik away. Dieng can defend and block shots, pass out of the high post, and has the potential to make a staple out of the foul line jumper. Pitt C Steven Adams would be a possibility here, too, and possesses more upside, but Dieng is more likely to contribute right away, and this is what the Bulls need. The Bulls don't have minutes to give for on-the-job training, and Tom Thibodeau has a higher threshold for throwing rookies out on the floor than most coaches. Adams would likely be a better pick 3 or 4 years down the line... but the Bulls need to compete now.
21. Utah: Steven Adams, C, Pitt
The young Kiwi has excellent athleticism and should be able to play defense at the NBA level fairly soon. His offensive game is a work in progress, but he does show signs that it's there. For a rebuilding team, Adams is a high-value pick at #21. Getting Saric and Adams would be a very good draft for the Jazz.
22. Brooklyn: Jamaal Franklin, SG, San Diego State
Franklin led the Aztecs in virtually every statistical category as a junior. He needs to improve his jumper, but he has excellent length, is well-built, athletic, and versatile. While he may be a jack-of-all-trades/master-of-none, Franklin's outstanding motor should at least ensure he can be a rotation contributor, perhaps like Ronnie Brewer when he was in Utah. With MarShon Brooks on the outs with the Nets, Franklin would give them the option of going small with Joe Johnson at the 3 and Gerald Wallace at the 4.
23. Indiana: Shane Larkin, PG, Miami
Larkin emerged as an explosive player for the 'Canes as a sophomore. His size will always be an issue, and he doesn't have Trey Burke's repertoire to overcome that. But he has the potential to be a long term high-end backup or low-end starter - and for the Pacers a nice game-ready complement to George Hill.
24. New York: Jeff Withey, C, Kansas
The Knicks need everything... and the Knicks need nothing. But they are definitely in "win-now" mode, so if they can get a guy who can help them off the bench right away, that would be a win at #24. Withey is not the strongest, and he doesn't have a terribly impressive offensive game, but he is a gifted shot blocker and can defend the rim when Tyson Chandler is not in the game.
25. L.A. Clippers: Tim Hardaway Jr., SG, Michigan
Hardaway stood out at the Chicago camp, earning high marks for his intensity and professionalism. At Michigan he displayed an NBA-level perimeter jump shot, but an ability to create was never in evidence, and his commitment to defense did not begin to surface until well into his junior season. But he has the length, tested well athletically in Chicago, appears willing to work at it, and if he's properly taught he might become more than an adequate defender. Even just being able to stretch a defense while defending his position would make him an NBA rotation player - and exactly what the Clippers need. If his ability to create exists but was simply not utilized within the structure of John Beilein's offense, he could be a hidden gem.
26. Minnesota: Glen Rice Jr., SG/SF, D-League
So, we get back-to-back sons of '90s NBA stars here. Minnesota needs athletes on the wings, and Rice brings brings size and athleticism. He brings some baggage, too, having been benched by Paul Hewitt at Georgia Tech, then the next year dismissed from the team by Brian Gregory. But once he got to the D-League, the former top prospect out of high school emerged as a prolific scorer. He's not great as a creator, but like his father he's a plus standstill sniper, which should fit well with Ricky Rubio. He has the physical tools to defend, but will need some solid instruction and motivation to develop. All told, this would be a nice high-upside value pick this late.
27. Denver: Erick Green, PG, Virginia Tech
Andre Miller can't play forever, so Denver needs to start cultivating a new backup to Ty Lawson. Green is primarily a scorer with the ability to get - and make - perimeter shots. But he does have the ability to run an offense, and is adept in the pick-and-roll game that is such an NBA staple. With a 6'7" wingspan, Green has the potential to log some minutes alongside Lawson should last year's first round pick, Frenchman Evan Fournier, not develop.
28. San Antonio: Lucas Nogueira, C, Brazil
"Bebe" has a physical profile that is reminiscent of Denver's JaVale McGee. The 20 year-old is rail thin at 6'11", but is a freakish athlete and can dominate the defensive end of the floor. If he gets stronger and adds a modicum of offensive skill, Nogueira could become a difference-maker. He might be best off stashed overseas for another year or two, which is fine by the Spurs. A potential Marcus Camby clone.
29. Oklahoma City: Rudy Gobert, C, France
Gobert does not have much of an offensive game beyond dunking - which he can do almost without jumping thanks to possessing the wingspan of an Airbus. His athletic testing in Chicago was underwhelming, but there is only so athletic you need to be with a 9'7" standing vertical. He's 19 and needs a lot of development. But the Thunder would probably prefer not to add two rookies right now anyway, and are looking ahead to the day they replace Kendrick Perkins.
30. Phoenix: Mouhammadou Jaiteh, C, France
Yet another physically impressive foreign center for a team that is willing to wait on long-term potential and isn't looking for immediate help. Despite being the second youngest player in the draft, not turning 19 until November, Jaiteh wants to make his way to the NBA quickly. The Suns will hope he can grow along with them.
Predictably, the Cavs are playing it close to the vest. I'll do my best to jump into their heads at this point and take it from there.
1. Cleveland: Nerlens Noel, C, Kentucky
Ultimately, while Porter is a very good prospect who has a fairly high floor, he doesn't set himself apart as a prospect you just can't afford to pass on. Noel, on the other hand, has a chance to be a game-changer on the defensive end. If you're going to compare him to a current or former NBA player, I would compare him to Theo Ratliff, who for a decade was one of the game's pre-eminent defensive big men. These guys don't come around all that often (although this is the second straight year one of them is coming out of Kentucky...) At any rate, until someone convinces me it's Porter, this is my guess.
2. Orlando: Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas
You can make a case for Trey Burke here, as the thoroughly average Jameer Nelson has only one year left on his contract. But McLemore has all the classic NBA shooting guard skills, and not being undersized for his position gives him more reliable upside than Burke, at a position that is as big a need as point guard.
3. Washington: Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown
And he doesn't even have to leave town! The Wiz have their long-term backcourt set with John Wall and Bradley Beal. Anthony Bennett is a possibility here, as that is also a position of need, but at #3 you can't really pass up on Porter.
4. Charlotte: Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV
The Hornets (yes, we can say that again!) need skill and athleticism in the frontcourt, and Bennett brings plenty. His body type is definitely that of a power forward, although ideally you'd like him to be a couple of inches taller. But the Canadian can handle, shoot, and has a legit back to the basket game.
5. Phoenix: Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana
Oladipo is a top level athlete who projects to be an elite defender, but it's the emergence of his offensive game that has vaulted him up draft boards. Even top shooting guards like Tim Hardaway Jr. and Brandon Paul had a hard time stopping Oladipo off the dribble, and his three point shot reached a surprising level of refinement. Because of his defense, you could argue that he's a safer bet than even McLemore... and if his offensive game continues to progress, he could be a major piece for the Suns.
6. New Orleans: Trey Burke, PG, Michigan
Burke took incredible strides as a sophomore under John Beilein, progressing from a scoring lead guard to a true playmaker, someone who could run an offense while also possessing the ability to take over a game. He is already a plus three-point shooter, and despite his size he is a handful in the lane who can get all the way to the rim even at a hair under 6' tall. His defense improved mightily as a sophomore, as well. If he were three inches taller, he would be the clear #2 pick in this draft. As it is, the Pelicans should have a long term starter in Burke.
7. Sacramento: Cody Zeller, PF/C, Indiana
I have long believed that Zeller would make a better pro than he was a college player, as NBA 4's are going to have a hard time dealing with Zeller both on the perimeter and in the post. Zeller showed in Chicago that he's plenty athletic to match up with power forwards, and as he adds strength he should be able to give minutes at center, too. He's a nice insurance policy for the Demarcus Cousins wild card, and a compelling player to pair with Cousins in a potentially imposing frontcourt.
8. Detroit: Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse
C.J. McCollum is a popular pick here, but I can't see the Pistons going for another 6'3", score-first combo guard. MCW has incredible size and athleticism for the position, and he's a true point guard. If he develops the same court sense, he could be a bigger Rajon Rondo. And if he fixes his jump shot - which recent testing suggests may be happening - his upside is almost unlimited. He would make an ideal backcourt mate for Brandon Knight.
9. Minnesota: Shabazz Muhammad, SG/SF, UCLA
Minnesota needs athleticism on the wings. Muhammad is not an elite wing athlete. But he can score, and the T'Wolves need someone who can do that, too. Muhammad may only be a scorer, but he lacks the baggage of someone like Michael Beasley. In a perfect world, Oladipo is the guy Minnesota would want here, and for that reason the T'Wolves might be a candidate to trade up.
10. Portland: Alex Len, C, Maryland
The jury remains out on Meyers Leonard, and you can never have too much size. With Damian Lillard, Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum, the Blazers are pretty set outside. Len, a pure low-post center, would be a nice complement to the face-up game of LaMarcus Aldridge.
11. Philadelphia: Mason Plumlee, PF/C, Duke
Philly needs size, and Plumlee is both big and athletic. He can play in the low post, and run the floor with almost any big man in the game.
12. Oklahoma City: C.J. McCollum, PG/SG, Lehigh
This is both good value and a good fit. McCollum could back up Russell Westbrook as well as play with him, providing the backcourt scoring that James Harden took with him to Houston.
13. Dallas: Dennis Schroeder, PG, Germany
This 19 year-old emerged late with lightning quickness, a pure point guard's skills, and a competent jump shot. Who better to usher him into the NBA than countryman Dirk Nowitzki? Dallas is heading into a rebuilding phase, and Schroeder has the potential to grow into a fixture.
14. Utah: Dario Saric, SF, Croatia
With a need at the point, the Jazz would have loved to see Schroeder or Carter-Williams still on the board here. Instead they go for the upside of this versatile, 19 year-old import. At 6'10", Saric possesses some real point-forward skills, a streaky jumper that should improve, and a basketball IQ perhaps unmatched in the draft.
15. Milwaukee: Sergey Karasev, SF, Russia
Milwaukee needs shooting (even after acquiring JJ Redick), and the small forward position is the Bucks' most unsettled. Karasev may be the best shooter in the draft.
16. Boston: Giannis Adetokuompo, SF, Greece
Adetokuompo is perhaps the most intriguing player in the draft. A long, athletic freak at 6'9", he often plays point guard for his Greek league team. Incredibly raw at only 18 years old, Giannis is likely to be stashed in Europe for 2-3 years... making him ready to come over right as Boston's rebuilding is in full swing. There is no one at #16 that will be an immediate boon to a rebuilding team, so this is a perfect opportunity for the Celtics to shoot for the stars.
17. Atlanta: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia
Good size, solid athleticism, solid shooting, and the ability to create make Caldwell-Pope an intriguing choice for a rebuilding Hawks team. He still needs to improve as a finisher and on the defensive end, but with the right coaching, the upside is there.
18. Atlanta: Kelly Olynyk, PF/C, Gonzaga
Olynyk has an impressive skill game for a player of his size, able to shoot from the perimeter and dribble-drive. Too good a value to pass up here.
19. Cleveland: Reggie Bullock, SF, North Carolina
Not a sexy pick, and probably a reach here (which makes the Cavs a candidate to trade down), but Bullock would slot in nicely at the 3 between Tristan Thompson and Dion Waiters. Bullock has size and length, making him an above average defender at a premium NBA position, and he's a terrific standstill jump shooter to stretch the floor for Uncle Drew.
20. Chicago: Gorgui Dieng, PF/C, Louisville
A lot depends on whether the Bulls think they will be able to retain Marco Belinelli. Not possessing his Larry Bird rights, the Bulls - in luxury tax territory - can only sign minimum-salary players. Belinelli probably played himself into more market value, however he has a very good role as the third wing on a potential contender. If he leaves, I would look for Michigan's Tim Hardaway Jr. in this spot. But for now, Dieng would give the Bulls an extra big man who can give them some of what they lost when Houston pried Omer Asik away. Dieng can defend and block shots, pass out of the high post, and has the potential to make a staple out of the foul line jumper. Pitt C Steven Adams would be a possibility here, too, and possesses more upside, but Dieng is more likely to contribute right away, and this is what the Bulls need. The Bulls don't have minutes to give for on-the-job training, and Tom Thibodeau has a higher threshold for throwing rookies out on the floor than most coaches. Adams would likely be a better pick 3 or 4 years down the line... but the Bulls need to compete now.
21. Utah: Steven Adams, C, Pitt
The young Kiwi has excellent athleticism and should be able to play defense at the NBA level fairly soon. His offensive game is a work in progress, but he does show signs that it's there. For a rebuilding team, Adams is a high-value pick at #21. Getting Saric and Adams would be a very good draft for the Jazz.
22. Brooklyn: Jamaal Franklin, SG, San Diego State
Franklin led the Aztecs in virtually every statistical category as a junior. He needs to improve his jumper, but he has excellent length, is well-built, athletic, and versatile. While he may be a jack-of-all-trades/master-of-none, Franklin's outstanding motor should at least ensure he can be a rotation contributor, perhaps like Ronnie Brewer when he was in Utah. With MarShon Brooks on the outs with the Nets, Franklin would give them the option of going small with Joe Johnson at the 3 and Gerald Wallace at the 4.
23. Indiana: Shane Larkin, PG, Miami
Larkin emerged as an explosive player for the 'Canes as a sophomore. His size will always be an issue, and he doesn't have Trey Burke's repertoire to overcome that. But he has the potential to be a long term high-end backup or low-end starter - and for the Pacers a nice game-ready complement to George Hill.
24. New York: Jeff Withey, C, Kansas
The Knicks need everything... and the Knicks need nothing. But they are definitely in "win-now" mode, so if they can get a guy who can help them off the bench right away, that would be a win at #24. Withey is not the strongest, and he doesn't have a terribly impressive offensive game, but he is a gifted shot blocker and can defend the rim when Tyson Chandler is not in the game.
25. L.A. Clippers: Tim Hardaway Jr., SG, Michigan
Hardaway stood out at the Chicago camp, earning high marks for his intensity and professionalism. At Michigan he displayed an NBA-level perimeter jump shot, but an ability to create was never in evidence, and his commitment to defense did not begin to surface until well into his junior season. But he has the length, tested well athletically in Chicago, appears willing to work at it, and if he's properly taught he might become more than an adequate defender. Even just being able to stretch a defense while defending his position would make him an NBA rotation player - and exactly what the Clippers need. If his ability to create exists but was simply not utilized within the structure of John Beilein's offense, he could be a hidden gem.
26. Minnesota: Glen Rice Jr., SG/SF, D-League
So, we get back-to-back sons of '90s NBA stars here. Minnesota needs athletes on the wings, and Rice brings brings size and athleticism. He brings some baggage, too, having been benched by Paul Hewitt at Georgia Tech, then the next year dismissed from the team by Brian Gregory. But once he got to the D-League, the former top prospect out of high school emerged as a prolific scorer. He's not great as a creator, but like his father he's a plus standstill sniper, which should fit well with Ricky Rubio. He has the physical tools to defend, but will need some solid instruction and motivation to develop. All told, this would be a nice high-upside value pick this late.
27. Denver: Erick Green, PG, Virginia Tech
Andre Miller can't play forever, so Denver needs to start cultivating a new backup to Ty Lawson. Green is primarily a scorer with the ability to get - and make - perimeter shots. But he does have the ability to run an offense, and is adept in the pick-and-roll game that is such an NBA staple. With a 6'7" wingspan, Green has the potential to log some minutes alongside Lawson should last year's first round pick, Frenchman Evan Fournier, not develop.
28. San Antonio: Lucas Nogueira, C, Brazil
"Bebe" has a physical profile that is reminiscent of Denver's JaVale McGee. The 20 year-old is rail thin at 6'11", but is a freakish athlete and can dominate the defensive end of the floor. If he gets stronger and adds a modicum of offensive skill, Nogueira could become a difference-maker. He might be best off stashed overseas for another year or two, which is fine by the Spurs. A potential Marcus Camby clone.
29. Oklahoma City: Rudy Gobert, C, France
Gobert does not have much of an offensive game beyond dunking - which he can do almost without jumping thanks to possessing the wingspan of an Airbus. His athletic testing in Chicago was underwhelming, but there is only so athletic you need to be with a 9'7" standing vertical. He's 19 and needs a lot of development. But the Thunder would probably prefer not to add two rookies right now anyway, and are looking ahead to the day they replace Kendrick Perkins.
30. Phoenix: Mouhammadou Jaiteh, C, France
Yet another physically impressive foreign center for a team that is willing to wait on long-term potential and isn't looking for immediate help. Despite being the second youngest player in the draft, not turning 19 until November, Jaiteh wants to make his way to the NBA quickly. The Suns will hope he can grow along with them.
Monday, May 6, 2013
What is Derrick Rose's value-added, anyway?
The year before winning the lottery and drafting Derrick Rose, the Bulls won 33 games. And in Rose's first two years under the generally confused Vinny Del Negro, the Bulls finished an even 41-41 each year.
Del Negro was dismissed after Rose's second year - which was also the Summer of Lebron/Wade/Bosh/David Lee/Joe Johnson... during which the Bulls landed Carlos Boozer/C.J. Watson/Kyle Korver.
Boozer was widely considered to be a flop, infuriating fans with his disdain for defense and passivity on offense. Watson and Korver were nice bench players, supporting iron man Luol Deng with the fabled "Bench Mob". Little the Bulls added that summer would have portended a big step forward for the team.
Yet, incredibly, the Bulls jumped from 41 to 62 wins, finished with the league's best record, advanced to the East finals, and lost to Miami in 5 games (although by a total of a mere 11 points in the series).
Adding Rose, for his first two years, added 8 wins over what the Bulls were before his arrival.
Adding Tom Thibodeau, on the other hand, added 21 wins. Rose deservedly won MVP. Luol Deng was transformed, in the eyes of Bulls fans, from a terrible John Paxson contract decision to one of the game's best small forwards. Joakim Noah has continued his upward trajectory and has emerged into a legitimate All-Star capable of leading the way to victory on the road in a playoff game seven.
It is fair to ask, then, if the driving force behind the Bulls' competitiveness is not merely the individual brilliance of Derrick Rose, but rather, the style of play and relentless professional culture instilled by Thibodeau - carried out through linchpins Noah and Deng.
Conventional wisdom says that superstars win championships, and more often than not this is true. However, there are precedents for teams winning titles with just a lot of very good players. The most oft-cited example was the Larry Brown Pistons, who won a title without a single player who could be argued was even in the top 3 at his position, but had five - Billups, Hamilton, Prince, Rasheed Wallace and Ben Wallace - who were all in the top half dozen. Further, the Spurs have a very clear shot at winning the West this year with an aging nucleus and not a single player that could still be called a superstar.
When Reggie Rose made the unfortunate comment this winter that he felt the Bulls had not done enough to build around Derrick, he said that it could affect his decision to push it and come back this season. As we sit at one year and one week since the injury with Derrick still not back on the court, it's hard to avoid the disturbing reality that Reggie gave us a very clear insight into the thinking of Team Rose: throw this season away.
Trouble is... they were wrong. In Rose's absence, Carlos Boozer had his best year as a Bull. This is interesting because for his first two years in Chicago, Boozer actually played much better when Rose was out and he was a bigger part of the offense. Noah and Deng both made the All-Star team. The mercurial Nate Robinson stepped forward with scoring binges that won games for the Bulls, most memorably in Game 4 against the Nets. Jimmy Butler blossomed into a very solid bench player, a three-position defensive stopper with an emerging offensive game. He even acquitted himself well in a starting role and provided hope that with further improvement of his jump shot he might well be the answer at the shooting guard position. (After watching the development of Noah, does anyone want to bet against Thibodeau's ability to get one more level of improvement out of Butler?) Even afterthought signing Marco Belinelli stepped up with some big games when called upon, in keeping with Thibodeau's "we need everyone" mantra.
Forgetting all about the tempest surrounding Rose's return, it is very fair to ask not whether Rose has a good enough supporting cast, but whether Rose or what you could get in TRADE for Rose would give better support for Thibodeau, Noah and Deng.
Very few NBA coaches truly add value. Their function is to provide a little strategic and tactical direction but also to keep players who make more money than they do all pulling in the same direction. College coaches might scheme and develop their way to the Final Four, but conventional wisdom says that coaches can't do that in the NBA.
We have mounting evidence that Thibodeau is one of the few coaches - perhaps the NBA's only coach - who adds value in much the way a superstar player does. And once you accept that premise, a range of options present themselves in the quest to build a Championship team that perhaps we might not have considered before.
And if Derrick Rose wants to play in his hometown for the long haul, it's something that the protective circle around him might want to think hard about.
Del Negro was dismissed after Rose's second year - which was also the Summer of Lebron/Wade/Bosh/David Lee/Joe Johnson... during which the Bulls landed Carlos Boozer/C.J. Watson/Kyle Korver.
Boozer was widely considered to be a flop, infuriating fans with his disdain for defense and passivity on offense. Watson and Korver were nice bench players, supporting iron man Luol Deng with the fabled "Bench Mob". Little the Bulls added that summer would have portended a big step forward for the team.
Yet, incredibly, the Bulls jumped from 41 to 62 wins, finished with the league's best record, advanced to the East finals, and lost to Miami in 5 games (although by a total of a mere 11 points in the series).
Adding Rose, for his first two years, added 8 wins over what the Bulls were before his arrival.
Adding Tom Thibodeau, on the other hand, added 21 wins. Rose deservedly won MVP. Luol Deng was transformed, in the eyes of Bulls fans, from a terrible John Paxson contract decision to one of the game's best small forwards. Joakim Noah has continued his upward trajectory and has emerged into a legitimate All-Star capable of leading the way to victory on the road in a playoff game seven.
It is fair to ask, then, if the driving force behind the Bulls' competitiveness is not merely the individual brilliance of Derrick Rose, but rather, the style of play and relentless professional culture instilled by Thibodeau - carried out through linchpins Noah and Deng.
Conventional wisdom says that superstars win championships, and more often than not this is true. However, there are precedents for teams winning titles with just a lot of very good players. The most oft-cited example was the Larry Brown Pistons, who won a title without a single player who could be argued was even in the top 3 at his position, but had five - Billups, Hamilton, Prince, Rasheed Wallace and Ben Wallace - who were all in the top half dozen. Further, the Spurs have a very clear shot at winning the West this year with an aging nucleus and not a single player that could still be called a superstar.
When Reggie Rose made the unfortunate comment this winter that he felt the Bulls had not done enough to build around Derrick, he said that it could affect his decision to push it and come back this season. As we sit at one year and one week since the injury with Derrick still not back on the court, it's hard to avoid the disturbing reality that Reggie gave us a very clear insight into the thinking of Team Rose: throw this season away.
Trouble is... they were wrong. In Rose's absence, Carlos Boozer had his best year as a Bull. This is interesting because for his first two years in Chicago, Boozer actually played much better when Rose was out and he was a bigger part of the offense. Noah and Deng both made the All-Star team. The mercurial Nate Robinson stepped forward with scoring binges that won games for the Bulls, most memorably in Game 4 against the Nets. Jimmy Butler blossomed into a very solid bench player, a three-position defensive stopper with an emerging offensive game. He even acquitted himself well in a starting role and provided hope that with further improvement of his jump shot he might well be the answer at the shooting guard position. (After watching the development of Noah, does anyone want to bet against Thibodeau's ability to get one more level of improvement out of Butler?) Even afterthought signing Marco Belinelli stepped up with some big games when called upon, in keeping with Thibodeau's "we need everyone" mantra.
Forgetting all about the tempest surrounding Rose's return, it is very fair to ask not whether Rose has a good enough supporting cast, but whether Rose or what you could get in TRADE for Rose would give better support for Thibodeau, Noah and Deng.
Very few NBA coaches truly add value. Their function is to provide a little strategic and tactical direction but also to keep players who make more money than they do all pulling in the same direction. College coaches might scheme and develop their way to the Final Four, but conventional wisdom says that coaches can't do that in the NBA.
We have mounting evidence that Thibodeau is one of the few coaches - perhaps the NBA's only coach - who adds value in much the way a superstar player does. And once you accept that premise, a range of options present themselves in the quest to build a Championship team that perhaps we might not have considered before.
And if Derrick Rose wants to play in his hometown for the long haul, it's something that the protective circle around him might want to think hard about.
Thursday, May 2, 2013
The Rose Conundrum
The Bulls are headed for Brooklyn for a climactic Game 7 after losing one of the gutsiest efforts you will ever see from a basketball team. Kirk Hinrich missed his second straight game with a calf injury. Luol Deng's viral infection was so bad that he had to have a spinal tap before the game to rule out viral meningitis. Taj Gibson and Nate Robinson fell victim to the same bug - with Robinson literally throwing up on the bench during timeouts. Joakim Noah continues to gut his way through plantar fascitis, while Taj Gibson continues to wear a knee brace.
And Derrick Rose, at one year plus four days since tearing his ACL, continues to sit on the bench in a suit.
Kirk Hinrich spoke with the Chicago Tribune's K.C. Johnson on Tuesday. He talked about needing to give Rose "the benefit of the doubt", and how the team "trusts" Rose.
What incredible subtext there.
You cannot give someone the benefit of the doubt if there isn't some doubt there.
And you would not need to trust Rose if you could plainly see by watching him on the practice court that he's not ready.
Appearing on 670 The Score on Wednesday, Johnson maintains that Bulls - even privately - continue to back Rose. But an experienced reporter like K.C. must understand that no one speaks to the team's beat writer on the basis of confidentiality. If you don't want a story even in the bloodstream, you don't tell it to a reporter, even "privately". Just because they haven't told him doesn't mean they're not thinking hard about this, as the subtext of Hinrich's comments reveal.
Rose has deservedly earned a great deal of capital with his teammates, and even if they were miffed by his continued absence, it is highly unlikely they would throw him under the bus even even on the deepest of background.
(What will be interesting is when we hear from guys like Rip Hamilton and Nazr Mohammed after the season when they are no longer Bulls - and they no longer need to concern themselves with the integrity of the clubhouse or facing Bulls teammates.)
While the freak-of-nature return of Adrian Peterson is not a fair benchmark for Rose, let's at least try to form a coherent context for his continued absence.
Iman Shumpert tore his ACL on April 28, 2012 - the day before Rose. He returned for the Knicks on January 17 - nearly four months ago.
Jamal Crawford tore his ACL early in his career, with the Bulls, and missed 8 months.
Ricky Rubio tore his ACL on March 9, 2012 - seven weeks before Rose - and returned to the court for the Timberwolves on December 15. He was out just over nine months.
Corey Brewer of the Timberwolves, an athletic wing player, tore his ACL on November 29, 2008. He played 33 minutes in Minnesota's opener 11 months later after playing the whole preseason.
Rose was cleared to return to practice on January 31 - over three months ago, 9 months out from the injury.
Rose was cleared for game action - his knee deemed 100% sound - on March 9... seven weeks ago, just over 10 months out from the injury.
The Tribune's Johnson, during an interview with the Mac and Spiegs show on the Score, said that he believes Rose has made a "strategic decision not to play this year".
For $16 million and while the Bulls are fighting through non-stop carnage, we're past the point where this is acceptable anymore. That kind of "strategic decision" can't stay in Rose's hands indefinitely, not this long after he has been cleared.
By contrast, just today the Knicks' Shumpert had this to say:
"I'm not really thinking about my knee. We've just got to win games. I've got the whole summer to work on things, to get myself to where I want to be individually, athletically. But right now, with what we've got and how my knee feels, it's good enough to play and I've got to go out there and make plays."
Shumpert and Rose were injured on back to back days, yet Shumpert came back four months earlier (and counting).
One can understand where this excessive caution comes from. Derrick's brother, Reggie, tore his ACL and never came back the same from it. And Rose has had a protective circle around him for his entire life, shielding him from the dangers of his Englewood neighborhood and managing his college recruitment. Derrick has likely never made a weighty decision in his life and may not be equipped to make this one, either. This isn't a matter of motivation, and those who question Rose's desire are missing the mark badly. This is a matter of decision-making capacity.
But all of this represents mildly informed speculation. What we know is this:
The Rose brush fire would be incredibly easy to douse if the Bulls wanted to. Tom Thibodeau could say on any day: Derrick still doesn't look nearly like himself out there, and we don't want him pushing it. He's too valuable to take even a small risk with.
Instead, Thibs just tells us every day that Rose is improving, getting closer... which tells us nothing about where he actually is right now.
By the same token, Hinrich could easily say: Trust me, guys, I'm on the practice floor with him every day. That's not Derrick Rose. He's not ready yet.
Instead Hinrich speaks of having to give Rose the benefit of the doubt.
The Bulls are not telling us that Rose doesn't look ready, or hasn't been declared fit by their medical and training staff. They're telling us that he hasn't declared himself ready to play yet - and every indication is that he and his camp made the decision long ago to run out the clock on this season.
If Rose truly is not ready to play yet for some physical reason, then we should be very worried at this point. Given that his timeline has already extended past that of almost every other NBA ACL injury in the last decade, there would exist a real chance that Rose may in fact never be the same explosive player again.
(Note: the Score's Dan Bernstein maintains that he has been told, off the record, by people who see Rose in practice that he is dominating and looks as physically impressive as ever.)
And if Rose cannot mentally get himself in a place where he can play as he always has, even after weeks upon weeks going full speed on the practice floor, then we need to be concerned that he will never again be the warrior who plays the game with abandon and no regard for his body. Mentally, he may be permanently damaged goods.
We're past 12 months now. If he really can't play, for either mental or physical reasons, then don't we have a real problem here?
But if this, as Johnson believes, is a "strategic decision", and Rose has outsourced his own free will to his hyper-protective big brother, then this gets sticky.
If the Bulls, after going up 3-1 over Brooklyn, proceed to drop three straight in the wake of Hinrich's injury - or if the Bulls prevail in Game 7 but face Miami without Rose - it's almost impossible to imagine that Rose will not have spent a great deal of his hard-earned capital with his teammates, the Bulls organization, and the fans.
And then it would no longer be possible to view Rose as categorically untouchable as the Bulls seek to compete for a Championship.
If New Orleans would part with a top-3 pick (which would presumably be used on Michigan PG Trey Burke) along with the himself-recovering Eric Gordon, would the Bulls not have to consider that for Rose?
If Charlotte landed the #1 pick (presumably Kansas SG Ben McLemore) and were willing to package that with PG Kemba Walker (nearly 18 points and 6 assists a game this season at age 22), would you not have to consider that, too?
If Philadelphia would part with Jrue Holiday (18 points, 8 assists this year at age 22) along with the disappointing but still young and serviceable Evan Turner, and the #11 pick... that, too, would have to be considered.
Such scenarios would have once been beyond unthinkable. Rose was not only an electrifying player but the ultimate competitor and perhaps sports' most humble and likable superstar, not to mention a hometown hero.
But we are now reaching a threshold where either something might be very wrong with him, or if not, then his relationship with the team and city is on the verge of backsliding catastrophically.
And Derrick Rose, at one year plus four days since tearing his ACL, continues to sit on the bench in a suit.
Kirk Hinrich spoke with the Chicago Tribune's K.C. Johnson on Tuesday. He talked about needing to give Rose "the benefit of the doubt", and how the team "trusts" Rose.
What incredible subtext there.
You cannot give someone the benefit of the doubt if there isn't some doubt there.
And you would not need to trust Rose if you could plainly see by watching him on the practice court that he's not ready.
Appearing on 670 The Score on Wednesday, Johnson maintains that Bulls - even privately - continue to back Rose. But an experienced reporter like K.C. must understand that no one speaks to the team's beat writer on the basis of confidentiality. If you don't want a story even in the bloodstream, you don't tell it to a reporter, even "privately". Just because they haven't told him doesn't mean they're not thinking hard about this, as the subtext of Hinrich's comments reveal.
Rose has deservedly earned a great deal of capital with his teammates, and even if they were miffed by his continued absence, it is highly unlikely they would throw him under the bus even even on the deepest of background.
(What will be interesting is when we hear from guys like Rip Hamilton and Nazr Mohammed after the season when they are no longer Bulls - and they no longer need to concern themselves with the integrity of the clubhouse or facing Bulls teammates.)
While the freak-of-nature return of Adrian Peterson is not a fair benchmark for Rose, let's at least try to form a coherent context for his continued absence.
Iman Shumpert tore his ACL on April 28, 2012 - the day before Rose. He returned for the Knicks on January 17 - nearly four months ago.
Jamal Crawford tore his ACL early in his career, with the Bulls, and missed 8 months.
Ricky Rubio tore his ACL on March 9, 2012 - seven weeks before Rose - and returned to the court for the Timberwolves on December 15. He was out just over nine months.
Corey Brewer of the Timberwolves, an athletic wing player, tore his ACL on November 29, 2008. He played 33 minutes in Minnesota's opener 11 months later after playing the whole preseason.
Rose was cleared to return to practice on January 31 - over three months ago, 9 months out from the injury.
Rose was cleared for game action - his knee deemed 100% sound - on March 9... seven weeks ago, just over 10 months out from the injury.
The Tribune's Johnson, during an interview with the Mac and Spiegs show on the Score, said that he believes Rose has made a "strategic decision not to play this year".
For $16 million and while the Bulls are fighting through non-stop carnage, we're past the point where this is acceptable anymore. That kind of "strategic decision" can't stay in Rose's hands indefinitely, not this long after he has been cleared.
By contrast, just today the Knicks' Shumpert had this to say:
"I'm not really thinking about my knee. We've just got to win games. I've got the whole summer to work on things, to get myself to where I want to be individually, athletically. But right now, with what we've got and how my knee feels, it's good enough to play and I've got to go out there and make plays."
Shumpert and Rose were injured on back to back days, yet Shumpert came back four months earlier (and counting).
One can understand where this excessive caution comes from. Derrick's brother, Reggie, tore his ACL and never came back the same from it. And Rose has had a protective circle around him for his entire life, shielding him from the dangers of his Englewood neighborhood and managing his college recruitment. Derrick has likely never made a weighty decision in his life and may not be equipped to make this one, either. This isn't a matter of motivation, and those who question Rose's desire are missing the mark badly. This is a matter of decision-making capacity.
But all of this represents mildly informed speculation. What we know is this:
The Rose brush fire would be incredibly easy to douse if the Bulls wanted to. Tom Thibodeau could say on any day: Derrick still doesn't look nearly like himself out there, and we don't want him pushing it. He's too valuable to take even a small risk with.
Instead, Thibs just tells us every day that Rose is improving, getting closer... which tells us nothing about where he actually is right now.
By the same token, Hinrich could easily say: Trust me, guys, I'm on the practice floor with him every day. That's not Derrick Rose. He's not ready yet.
Instead Hinrich speaks of having to give Rose the benefit of the doubt.
The Bulls are not telling us that Rose doesn't look ready, or hasn't been declared fit by their medical and training staff. They're telling us that he hasn't declared himself ready to play yet - and every indication is that he and his camp made the decision long ago to run out the clock on this season.
If Rose truly is not ready to play yet for some physical reason, then we should be very worried at this point. Given that his timeline has already extended past that of almost every other NBA ACL injury in the last decade, there would exist a real chance that Rose may in fact never be the same explosive player again.
(Note: the Score's Dan Bernstein maintains that he has been told, off the record, by people who see Rose in practice that he is dominating and looks as physically impressive as ever.)
And if Rose cannot mentally get himself in a place where he can play as he always has, even after weeks upon weeks going full speed on the practice floor, then we need to be concerned that he will never again be the warrior who plays the game with abandon and no regard for his body. Mentally, he may be permanently damaged goods.
We're past 12 months now. If he really can't play, for either mental or physical reasons, then don't we have a real problem here?
But if this, as Johnson believes, is a "strategic decision", and Rose has outsourced his own free will to his hyper-protective big brother, then this gets sticky.
If the Bulls, after going up 3-1 over Brooklyn, proceed to drop three straight in the wake of Hinrich's injury - or if the Bulls prevail in Game 7 but face Miami without Rose - it's almost impossible to imagine that Rose will not have spent a great deal of his hard-earned capital with his teammates, the Bulls organization, and the fans.
And then it would no longer be possible to view Rose as categorically untouchable as the Bulls seek to compete for a Championship.
If New Orleans would part with a top-3 pick (which would presumably be used on Michigan PG Trey Burke) along with the himself-recovering Eric Gordon, would the Bulls not have to consider that for Rose?
If Charlotte landed the #1 pick (presumably Kansas SG Ben McLemore) and were willing to package that with PG Kemba Walker (nearly 18 points and 6 assists a game this season at age 22), would you not have to consider that, too?
If Philadelphia would part with Jrue Holiday (18 points, 8 assists this year at age 22) along with the disappointing but still young and serviceable Evan Turner, and the #11 pick... that, too, would have to be considered.
Such scenarios would have once been beyond unthinkable. Rose was not only an electrifying player but the ultimate competitor and perhaps sports' most humble and likable superstar, not to mention a hometown hero.
But we are now reaching a threshold where either something might be very wrong with him, or if not, then his relationship with the team and city is on the verge of backsliding catastrophically.
Wednesday, March 27, 2013
I give up.
The Bulls are a team that on a nightly basis embodies the culture Tom Thibodeau has instilled in them: defensive principles executed rigorously. Never concede a game. Treat them all like playoff games. As a result, they have been in countless games they had no business competing in, and won a surprising percentage of them.
Luol Deng made his second straight All-Star Game. Joakim Noah improved, made his first All-Star Game, and is the frontrunner for NBA Defensive Player of the Year. Carlos Boozer has had his best year as a Bull.
Nate Robinson and Marco Belinelli, truth be known, have been big upgrades from C.J. Watson and Kyle Korver. Jimmy Butler has been an upgrade in the rotation over Ronnie Brewer. For the rare stretches of good health he has had, Kirk Hinrich has been a stabilizing force. "Bench Mob II" would have been better than "Bench Mob I" if they weren't spending so much time in the starting lineup.
They just had to hold out until Derrick Rose came back.
And he's not going to. Not this year. That much is becoming clear. And frankly, if I were Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson and Carlos Boozer, I would be feeling pretty burned right now.
These guys have absolutely gone to war on a nightly basis, kept their competitive edge, and tried to preserve a solid seed so that when Rose returned, they could step right back into the hunt for the East.
Yet after weeks of full speed practicing, Rose really seems content to pack it in on this season. I can't even believe I'm saying it, because the Derrick Rose we know has been a fierce competitor.
No one wants Rose to rush back. No one wants to subject him to ANY additional risk of injury. But we know at this point that he is not at risk. And for some reason, Rose doesn't want to play until he reaches 100% effectiveness, not 100% health.
I think he owes his team a little better.
But now we have reached the point where there simply isn't sufficient time for him to gradually ramp up his minutes to a full load by playoff time.
And if he can't get himself on the court for tonight's game against the Heat, as they bring their 27-game winning streak into the United Center... then it's clearly not happening this year.
At this point, the Bulls should make the rest of the season about getting as many minutes as possible for Jimmy Butler and Marquis Teague. Their development - and preserving the health of Deng and Noah - are now paramount.
Shut Kirk Hinrich down, too. He has been rickety all season, so let him get a start on healing up, training, and getting primed for next year.
We have now arrived at a place where if the Bulls are going to take the long view on Rose and not push him even a little bit to get out on the court, then they should look past this season on everything.
As Duke screamed as Drago was about to kill Apollo:
"Throw the damn towel!"
Luol Deng made his second straight All-Star Game. Joakim Noah improved, made his first All-Star Game, and is the frontrunner for NBA Defensive Player of the Year. Carlos Boozer has had his best year as a Bull.
Nate Robinson and Marco Belinelli, truth be known, have been big upgrades from C.J. Watson and Kyle Korver. Jimmy Butler has been an upgrade in the rotation over Ronnie Brewer. For the rare stretches of good health he has had, Kirk Hinrich has been a stabilizing force. "Bench Mob II" would have been better than "Bench Mob I" if they weren't spending so much time in the starting lineup.
They just had to hold out until Derrick Rose came back.
And he's not going to. Not this year. That much is becoming clear. And frankly, if I were Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson and Carlos Boozer, I would be feeling pretty burned right now.
These guys have absolutely gone to war on a nightly basis, kept their competitive edge, and tried to preserve a solid seed so that when Rose returned, they could step right back into the hunt for the East.
Yet after weeks of full speed practicing, Rose really seems content to pack it in on this season. I can't even believe I'm saying it, because the Derrick Rose we know has been a fierce competitor.
No one wants Rose to rush back. No one wants to subject him to ANY additional risk of injury. But we know at this point that he is not at risk. And for some reason, Rose doesn't want to play until he reaches 100% effectiveness, not 100% health.
I think he owes his team a little better.
But now we have reached the point where there simply isn't sufficient time for him to gradually ramp up his minutes to a full load by playoff time.
And if he can't get himself on the court for tonight's game against the Heat, as they bring their 27-game winning streak into the United Center... then it's clearly not happening this year.
At this point, the Bulls should make the rest of the season about getting as many minutes as possible for Jimmy Butler and Marquis Teague. Their development - and preserving the health of Deng and Noah - are now paramount.
Shut Kirk Hinrich down, too. He has been rickety all season, so let him get a start on healing up, training, and getting primed for next year.
We have now arrived at a place where if the Bulls are going to take the long view on Rose and not push him even a little bit to get out on the court, then they should look past this season on everything.
As Duke screamed as Drago was about to kill Apollo:
"Throw the damn towel!"
Friday, February 15, 2013
Trade Rose?
There is what I call a "rationalist" school of thought in terms of what to hope for when it comes to your sports teams. Its main tenet is aiming for the next possible championship, and you should hope for any event that furthers that goal.
Now, I don't necessarily, as a fan, subscribe to a "rationalist" approach to an exercise - fandom - that is inherently irrational. After all, there is exactly no consequence to the fan if any game is lost. The actual conditions of my life were not affected any more by the Jordan Championship era than they were by the Tim Floyd dark ages. Yes, I got more enjoyment from watching the Bulls during the former. But then again, I got some real enjoyment watching a couple of good Scott Skiles seasons, as I did watching Derrick Rose since he came into the league. The existential enjoyment that comes from enjoying sports and being part of a tribal, communal "rooting" experience comes almost as much (for most people) just from the very existence of consequential games.
Some, most notably 670 The Score's Dan Bernstein, refer to anything short of having at least a 50/50 chance of winning a title as "basketball hell". Observers of that ilk actually get more enjoyment from really bad basketball than they get from a team that is very good but not clearly the best, because being awful does not burden the fan with any realistic hopes. The emotional burden of being close enough to the prize to plausibly hope for it is simply too much for them to bear, so they retreat into the "rationalist" ramparts in order to take the inherent emotionalism of fandom out of it.
As a fan, I don't lean that way. But if you're an executive of any sports team, where it's your JOB to win the next championship... the businesslike "rationalist" approach is how you must prosecute it. That's your fiduciary responsibility.
To that end...
There is a strong rationalist argument that the Bulls won't win a title in the next four years. I personally believe it might be possible to overcome LeBron and the Heat before then, but any rational situation analysis must at least grant that Miami will reside at or near the top of the table for the next few years.
Further, given the style of his game, it's reasonable to question just how long of a prime Derrick Rose is going to have - and reasonable to question whether that prime will extend further into the future than that of LeBron James.
I am not going to offer an opinion on these matters right now. What I am going to do, however, is accept these premises for the sake of argument, and apply the rationalist approach.
And if you carry this to its logical conclusion, then there is only one rational course of action:
Trade Derrick Rose.
To win the next possible NBA Championship, the objective should be to optimize a roster for 2016-2020 - at least so that you catch the tail end of LeBron James' prime, or to consider the possibility that the Heat could break up and LeBron will cast his lot with another franchise once his two buddies no longer represent a strong enough supporting cast anymore.
The Bulls should want to load up on future assets, and at least put themselves in a cap situation where they could be an option for LeBron or Durant if and when either hits the market.
Optimizing the roster for the latter half of this decade means that selling high on Deng and Noah right now is the thing to do - they will both be well north of 30 by then - in addition to cashing in on Rose and Taj Gibson.
Here's the blueprint:
1. Luol Deng to Atlanta for expiring contracts and one of their two first round picks, in the middle of the round.
2. Joakim Noah to Oklahoma City for Kendrick Perkins, Perry Jones and the Toronto pick the Thunder own in one of the next three years. Jones is a developmental project. Perkins is a placeholder for two more years - someone still has to play center while you re-tool. The pick is the value here. You're getting a late lottery pick for Noah.
3. Taj Gibson to the Knicks for Iman Shumpert. Gibson is going to be 28 this spring, so if your window is four years out, you're not looking at him as a mainstay at that point. In New York, Chandler and Stoudemire are already 30, and Stoudemire is a shadow of his former self. For a team that wants to compete right now, Gibson would be an appealing option at the 4. At 22, Shumpert should be in the middle of his prime when the Bulls are ready to compete again. This deal should work on the cap with Gibson as a base year player.
4. Derrick Rose to Charlotte for Kemba Walker and their #1 pick this year (which will be in the top 3). You get a promising young point guard who is two years younger than Rose and whose game should give him a longer shelf life... plus another pick at the top of the draft.
So now you have your own pick this year, Atlanta's pick this year, Charlotte's top-3 pick this year, Toronto's pick in one of the next three drafts, and the future Charlotte pick you already have from the Tyrus Thomas deal. Plus, the Bulls' own picks are going to be higher for the next year or two.
In terms of bodies for the future, you have Walker (22), Shumpert (22), Jimmy Butler (23) and eventually Nikola Mirotic (22). Four years from now they will all be 26-27. Plus you have projects like Marquis Teague and Perry Jones.
And on top of all of this, the Bulls will have cap flexibility for the next two summers, with another $25 million worth of Boozer and Kendrick Perkins coming off the cap in the summer of 2015 - right as Walker, Shumpert, Butler and Mirotic should be peaking and right after the Bulls have loaded their roster with draft picks the previous two summers.
If you want to take the "rationalist" approach and optimize your roster for when the Heat might start to falter or disintegrate, this is how you do it.
Now, I don't necessarily, as a fan, subscribe to a "rationalist" approach to an exercise - fandom - that is inherently irrational. After all, there is exactly no consequence to the fan if any game is lost. The actual conditions of my life were not affected any more by the Jordan Championship era than they were by the Tim Floyd dark ages. Yes, I got more enjoyment from watching the Bulls during the former. But then again, I got some real enjoyment watching a couple of good Scott Skiles seasons, as I did watching Derrick Rose since he came into the league. The existential enjoyment that comes from enjoying sports and being part of a tribal, communal "rooting" experience comes almost as much (for most people) just from the very existence of consequential games.
Some, most notably 670 The Score's Dan Bernstein, refer to anything short of having at least a 50/50 chance of winning a title as "basketball hell". Observers of that ilk actually get more enjoyment from really bad basketball than they get from a team that is very good but not clearly the best, because being awful does not burden the fan with any realistic hopes. The emotional burden of being close enough to the prize to plausibly hope for it is simply too much for them to bear, so they retreat into the "rationalist" ramparts in order to take the inherent emotionalism of fandom out of it.
As a fan, I don't lean that way. But if you're an executive of any sports team, where it's your JOB to win the next championship... the businesslike "rationalist" approach is how you must prosecute it. That's your fiduciary responsibility.
To that end...
There is a strong rationalist argument that the Bulls won't win a title in the next four years. I personally believe it might be possible to overcome LeBron and the Heat before then, but any rational situation analysis must at least grant that Miami will reside at or near the top of the table for the next few years.
Further, given the style of his game, it's reasonable to question just how long of a prime Derrick Rose is going to have - and reasonable to question whether that prime will extend further into the future than that of LeBron James.
I am not going to offer an opinion on these matters right now. What I am going to do, however, is accept these premises for the sake of argument, and apply the rationalist approach.
And if you carry this to its logical conclusion, then there is only one rational course of action:
Trade Derrick Rose.
To win the next possible NBA Championship, the objective should be to optimize a roster for 2016-2020 - at least so that you catch the tail end of LeBron James' prime, or to consider the possibility that the Heat could break up and LeBron will cast his lot with another franchise once his two buddies no longer represent a strong enough supporting cast anymore.
The Bulls should want to load up on future assets, and at least put themselves in a cap situation where they could be an option for LeBron or Durant if and when either hits the market.
Optimizing the roster for the latter half of this decade means that selling high on Deng and Noah right now is the thing to do - they will both be well north of 30 by then - in addition to cashing in on Rose and Taj Gibson.
Here's the blueprint:
1. Luol Deng to Atlanta for expiring contracts and one of their two first round picks, in the middle of the round.
2. Joakim Noah to Oklahoma City for Kendrick Perkins, Perry Jones and the Toronto pick the Thunder own in one of the next three years. Jones is a developmental project. Perkins is a placeholder for two more years - someone still has to play center while you re-tool. The pick is the value here. You're getting a late lottery pick for Noah.
3. Taj Gibson to the Knicks for Iman Shumpert. Gibson is going to be 28 this spring, so if your window is four years out, you're not looking at him as a mainstay at that point. In New York, Chandler and Stoudemire are already 30, and Stoudemire is a shadow of his former self. For a team that wants to compete right now, Gibson would be an appealing option at the 4. At 22, Shumpert should be in the middle of his prime when the Bulls are ready to compete again. This deal should work on the cap with Gibson as a base year player.
4. Derrick Rose to Charlotte for Kemba Walker and their #1 pick this year (which will be in the top 3). You get a promising young point guard who is two years younger than Rose and whose game should give him a longer shelf life... plus another pick at the top of the draft.
So now you have your own pick this year, Atlanta's pick this year, Charlotte's top-3 pick this year, Toronto's pick in one of the next three drafts, and the future Charlotte pick you already have from the Tyrus Thomas deal. Plus, the Bulls' own picks are going to be higher for the next year or two.
In terms of bodies for the future, you have Walker (22), Shumpert (22), Jimmy Butler (23) and eventually Nikola Mirotic (22). Four years from now they will all be 26-27. Plus you have projects like Marquis Teague and Perry Jones.
And on top of all of this, the Bulls will have cap flexibility for the next two summers, with another $25 million worth of Boozer and Kendrick Perkins coming off the cap in the summer of 2015 - right as Walker, Shumpert, Butler and Mirotic should be peaking and right after the Bulls have loaded their roster with draft picks the previous two summers.
If you want to take the "rationalist" approach and optimize your roster for when the Heat might start to falter or disintegrate, this is how you do it.
Friday, February 8, 2013
Irony can be pretty ironic sometimes...
I spent two years screaming that Carlos Boozer and his albatross of a contract were the biggest limiting factor on finally being able to piece a Championship team together around Derrick Rose.
For the first time, we finally have a specific Boozer trade rumor, and...
I dunno.
I can't really get my head around this Andrea Bargnani rumor. It makes little sense. Yes, he could be a "stretch" power forward whose perimeter shooting might give the Bulls' offense another dimension. Maybe he'll decongest the lane for Derrick Rose by pulling opponents' power forwards out to the perimeter. But he adds no more to the mix defensively than Boozer, and he's a 7-footer who rebounds like a good shooting guard.
And while Bargnani is making a little less per year than Boozer, it's still not nearly enough to get the Bulls under the cap. And if he exercises his player option, he'll delay the Bulls having cap space by another year after Boozer would have been gone - and he takes the amnesty option off the table, which the Bulls currently have with Boozer. (You can only amnesty a player who was on your roster at the time the lockout ended.)
The only thing I can think of at this point is that Bargnani won't be any WORSE than Boozer, but his contract may be slightly less untradeable than Boozer's. Maybe the Bulls feel like Bargnani might be movable for an expiring contract, where Boozer is not.
Further, since Taj Gibson has a history of producing much better as a starter, you could more easily justify bringing Bargnani off the bench as a scoring anchor for the second team so Luol Deng doesn't have to do it forever.
I suppose if you look for reasons this makes some sense, you can find them. But Boozer has played well enough this year that I don't feel all that compelled to move him just for the sake of doing it.
Is it possible this is just the first chess move in a broader gambit?
Stay tuned, I guess. Gar Forman is the top dog. The head cheese. Numero uno honcho...
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
Playing GM
Last night the Bulls hung around in another road game they had no business being in before finally succumbing to the Pacers. (Incidentally, if the Pacers can get any real value for Danny Granger, they have the potential to be a nasty team as Paul George and Lance Stephenson develop.)
Sitting at 10 games over .500, on pace for 50 wins even without Rose, it's time to start asking what moves might be made at the trade deadline to get over the hump and put a real scare into the Heat and Knicks in the East.
Conventional wisdom says the Bulls need a second shot-creator. Now, for starters, I'm not sure this is so. If you have one possession at the end of a game, you have the option of putting Rose and Nate Robinson on the floor together. And Marco Belinelli can get his own shot better than any of the options we have seen with Rose since maybe John Salmons when Rose was a rookie. And he was actually playing the 3 with Deng injured in that epic series with the Celtics.
But in the bigger picture, I just don't believe in absolutes like that. The Mavericks took down the Heat without a second pure shot-maker to run with Nowitzki. I think the Bulls just need a better basketball player at the 2.
Now, I have been fairly impressed with Marco Belinelli. His ability to both defend and create his own shot have been pleasant surprises - two areas of his game in which he's an upgrade over Kyle Korver. With Rip Hamilton looking for all the world like the guy who doesn't know the party is over but for some reason is still there, could the Bulls turn the 2 position over to Belinelli and the emerging Jimmy Butler, along with spot minutes with Hinrich and Rose sharing the same backcourt? Truth is... probably. It would be better than the Keith Bogans/Rip Hamilton experience of the past two seasons. But I'd feel better with a legit starter plugged into that spot.
To that end, let's look at the guy who was almost a Bull in the first place: J.J. Redick. The Bulls signed him to a front-loaded offer sheet during the Summer of LeBron, which was meant to make the cash-strapped Magic swallow hard before matching. Once they did, the Bulls settled for Korver and Brewer. Well, Redick is having a career year this year, scoring 15 points per game, shooting 40% from distance, and is a willing enough defender for Tom Thibodeau. His contract expires after this year, and there is smoke that he is available.
Could the Bulls send Hamilton's expiring contract and a first round pick to Orlando for a Redick rental, along with the hopes of retaining him with his Larry Bird rights? It seems a worthwhile gamble given where the Bulls will be drafting, and even a late #1 for a rental is probably the best the Magic will do
One other element the Bulls continue to miss is a big-bodied, defensive-minded center to replace what they lost in Omer Asik. Nazr Mohammed is another veteran who looks like he has stayed too long at the party.
Denver's Timofey Mozgov might fit the bill. He is very low-priced - a bit over $2 million - and he is averaging fewer than 3 points per game in limited minutes. And the Bulls would not be counting on him for many, as they are comfortable in many matchups with Taj Gibson. But Mozgov is a club Tom Thibodeau would surely like to have in his bag,
The expiring contracts of Nazr Mohammed and Vladimir Radmanovic along with one or two second round picks should be sufficient for Mozgov. His market value is not high - he's a luxury item few teams have a distinct need for right now.
This would give the Bulls a bench of Hinrich, Belinelli, Butler, Gibson and Mozgov, which I submit is not just better but QUITE A BIT better than the fabled "Bench Mob" of recent vintage.
If the Bulls were to simply re-sign Belinelli, Redick and Mozgov, they would need to make no other moves this offseason to go into next year expecting to compete for the title. And they could keep their very valuable future assets - Nikola Mirotic and the Charlotte pick - as the roster someday turns over around Rose.
Sitting at 10 games over .500, on pace for 50 wins even without Rose, it's time to start asking what moves might be made at the trade deadline to get over the hump and put a real scare into the Heat and Knicks in the East.
Conventional wisdom says the Bulls need a second shot-creator. Now, for starters, I'm not sure this is so. If you have one possession at the end of a game, you have the option of putting Rose and Nate Robinson on the floor together. And Marco Belinelli can get his own shot better than any of the options we have seen with Rose since maybe John Salmons when Rose was a rookie. And he was actually playing the 3 with Deng injured in that epic series with the Celtics.
But in the bigger picture, I just don't believe in absolutes like that. The Mavericks took down the Heat without a second pure shot-maker to run with Nowitzki. I think the Bulls just need a better basketball player at the 2.
Now, I have been fairly impressed with Marco Belinelli. His ability to both defend and create his own shot have been pleasant surprises - two areas of his game in which he's an upgrade over Kyle Korver. With Rip Hamilton looking for all the world like the guy who doesn't know the party is over but for some reason is still there, could the Bulls turn the 2 position over to Belinelli and the emerging Jimmy Butler, along with spot minutes with Hinrich and Rose sharing the same backcourt? Truth is... probably. It would be better than the Keith Bogans/Rip Hamilton experience of the past two seasons. But I'd feel better with a legit starter plugged into that spot.
To that end, let's look at the guy who was almost a Bull in the first place: J.J. Redick. The Bulls signed him to a front-loaded offer sheet during the Summer of LeBron, which was meant to make the cash-strapped Magic swallow hard before matching. Once they did, the Bulls settled for Korver and Brewer. Well, Redick is having a career year this year, scoring 15 points per game, shooting 40% from distance, and is a willing enough defender for Tom Thibodeau. His contract expires after this year, and there is smoke that he is available.
Could the Bulls send Hamilton's expiring contract and a first round pick to Orlando for a Redick rental, along with the hopes of retaining him with his Larry Bird rights? It seems a worthwhile gamble given where the Bulls will be drafting, and even a late #1 for a rental is probably the best the Magic will do
One other element the Bulls continue to miss is a big-bodied, defensive-minded center to replace what they lost in Omer Asik. Nazr Mohammed is another veteran who looks like he has stayed too long at the party.
Denver's Timofey Mozgov might fit the bill. He is very low-priced - a bit over $2 million - and he is averaging fewer than 3 points per game in limited minutes. And the Bulls would not be counting on him for many, as they are comfortable in many matchups with Taj Gibson. But Mozgov is a club Tom Thibodeau would surely like to have in his bag,
The expiring contracts of Nazr Mohammed and Vladimir Radmanovic along with one or two second round picks should be sufficient for Mozgov. His market value is not high - he's a luxury item few teams have a distinct need for right now.
This would give the Bulls a bench of Hinrich, Belinelli, Butler, Gibson and Mozgov, which I submit is not just better but QUITE A BIT better than the fabled "Bench Mob" of recent vintage.
If the Bulls were to simply re-sign Belinelli, Redick and Mozgov, they would need to make no other moves this offseason to go into next year expecting to compete for the title. And they could keep their very valuable future assets - Nikola Mirotic and the Charlotte pick - as the roster someday turns over around Rose.
Thursday, January 31, 2013
BULLet Points: The Memo Is Back!
I can't do it in 140 characters anymore. I feel like I'm talking in morse code. I'm one step from writing only in text massage shorthand.
Time for actual prose again. So I'll shake off the rust with a little roundup of where we are...
-The Bulls are on pace for 51 wins right now... without Derrick Rose. On one hand, you have to give it up for Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah, who have taken their games to a new level. Boozer was my whipping boy for the last two years, but he has been legitimately good this year. He has actually not been a defensive liability - and I didn't think that was possible. His offense has been invaluable. Further, Luol Deng has always been more respected by the players and coaches on other teams than he has by Bulls fans and local media who couldn't seem to get over by the fact he's not Scottie Pippen. Those who felt that his contract was an albatross didn't understand that what Deng brings to the table matters more on a good team. But on the other hand... with likely two Coach of the Year Awards and a runner-up in his first three seasons, COY may soon have to be re-named the Tom Thibodeau Award. It's hard to argue that he's anything but the game's best coach right now?
-Nate Robinson is a fascinating basketball study. At 5'9", he's just not supposed to be in the NBA. And no team ever seems to think keeping him around is a priority each offseason. At times he's explosive, at other times he looks like he has never played full court 5-on-5 before. But he always has a job, and last night we saw why. While he doesn't play point guard in any conventional sense, the guy can flat-out score points in bunches. In the absence of Derrick Rose, the Bulls have needed someone who could create his own shot and score on his own from time to time, and his periodic outbursts have MATTERED this year. A low-money afterthought late in the process has turned out to be the difference in probably more than a few wins. When Rose comes back, Kirk Hinrich will be the primary backup point guard - and probably play some minutes with Rose. Nate will go back into his "Break Glass In Case Of Emergency" box. But you know come playoff time, where the Bulls are down 10 in the third quarter, the game is being played in the mud, and a jolt of energy is needed...
-Jimmy Butler is one more offseason of tightening up his handle and improving his jump shot away from being an NBA starter. Between his emergence and the emergence of Nikola Mirotic into what many believe is a future NBA All-Star, how good is the Bulls' 2011 draft looking right now?
Time for actual prose again. So I'll shake off the rust with a little roundup of where we are...
-The Bulls are on pace for 51 wins right now... without Derrick Rose. On one hand, you have to give it up for Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah, who have taken their games to a new level. Boozer was my whipping boy for the last two years, but he has been legitimately good this year. He has actually not been a defensive liability - and I didn't think that was possible. His offense has been invaluable. Further, Luol Deng has always been more respected by the players and coaches on other teams than he has by Bulls fans and local media who couldn't seem to get over by the fact he's not Scottie Pippen. Those who felt that his contract was an albatross didn't understand that what Deng brings to the table matters more on a good team. But on the other hand... with likely two Coach of the Year Awards and a runner-up in his first three seasons, COY may soon have to be re-named the Tom Thibodeau Award. It's hard to argue that he's anything but the game's best coach right now?
-Nate Robinson is a fascinating basketball study. At 5'9", he's just not supposed to be in the NBA. And no team ever seems to think keeping him around is a priority each offseason. At times he's explosive, at other times he looks like he has never played full court 5-on-5 before. But he always has a job, and last night we saw why. While he doesn't play point guard in any conventional sense, the guy can flat-out score points in bunches. In the absence of Derrick Rose, the Bulls have needed someone who could create his own shot and score on his own from time to time, and his periodic outbursts have MATTERED this year. A low-money afterthought late in the process has turned out to be the difference in probably more than a few wins. When Rose comes back, Kirk Hinrich will be the primary backup point guard - and probably play some minutes with Rose. Nate will go back into his "Break Glass In Case Of Emergency" box. But you know come playoff time, where the Bulls are down 10 in the third quarter, the game is being played in the mud, and a jolt of energy is needed...
-Jimmy Butler is one more offseason of tightening up his handle and improving his jump shot away from being an NBA starter. Between his emergence and the emergence of Nikola Mirotic into what many believe is a future NBA All-Star, how good is the Bulls' 2011 draft looking right now?
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