I don't want to be "that guy".

I don't want to be the guy who is predicting doom around every corner like so many neurotic fans. If there is anything we've learned from the history of NBA playoff basketball, it's that you can't over-project the trends of one series to the next. There were probably many who didn't think the Bulls would win the Championship in 1992 after the Knicks extended them to 7 in Round 2. Similarly, many probably didn't think they had that 6th title in them when the Pacers extended them to 7 in 1998.

And we are talking about a team that just lost for the first time this month when their comeback fell just short at Conseco Fieldhouse. They're 26-4 in their last 30 games.

So on the one hand, you can cry, 'They don't look like a Championship team!"

On other hand, you can say, "But they win pretty much every night."

I think what many observers - Bulls fans and national analysts alike - are suffering from is a fear of heights. Once you allow yourself to believe this is a team capable of winning the title - which the league's top record obviously demands you ponder - then you start looking at the team differently. When you're a team on the rise, any win is just another win for the record, better than a loss. When you start viewing a team through the lens of a Championship contender, you reflexively start looking for style points.

On January 29, the Bulls beat Indiana 110-89 in a game that had all the earmarks of one team trying to get their coach fired, an objective that was achieved by the Pacers shortly thereafter. The game wasn't even as close as the score indicated. Indiana stood around on defense, Danny Granger jacked up ridiculous shot after ridiculous shot... they looked more like a team angling for a Jim O'Brien pink slip and the #1 pick than they did a team that was interested in making the playoffs and putting up a fight.

Since Frank Vogel took over, the Pacers have been a completely different team, especially on the defensive end. They have shown a comfort level with turning this into an old-school, late '80s/early '90s classic NBA playoff meat grinder of a series reminiscent of the infamous 1990 "No Layups" tilt between the Bulls and 76'ers - a series that was such a street fight that it allowed Bulls bruiser Ed Nealy to once be named Player of the Game.

And we've certainly seen the old Pistons template employed on Derrick Rose. After his explosion in the first two games, the Pacers have chosen to put Rose on the floor every time he dares come into the lane, just as the Bad Boys used to do with a young Michael Jordan. The theory here is that you'll trade easy baskets for free throws, and by the 4th quarter you will have exacted such a physical toll on him that there will be no life in his jumper and he'll think twice about attacking the rim.

In Game 3, it worked but it didn't. Rose ferociously attacked the rim for the game winning basket. But they did pummel him into a poor field goal shooting night. It's hard to judge the effectiveness of the strategy in Game 4 after Rose rolled his ankle in the first half and shot 3 for 16 after that.

I hate to beat a dead horse here, but the real problem for the Bulls, besides overall lackluster shooting, has been Carlos Boozer's softness on offense and lack of hustle on defense.

Boozer turned in 15 points and 13 rebounds on Saturday... yet still had a bad game. He shot a poor 6-for-15 from the field, once again allowing himself to be turned into a jump shooter. He didn't strain the Pacers defense at all, rarely attacking the rim. Whether this is because he still doesn't have lift since his ankle injury or because he has gone soft as many big men do later in their careers, he's just not a force in the low post like he was earlier in the season.

And his lapses in defensive and loose ball situations are just inexcusable. When his man, Tyler Hansbrough, missed a baseline jumper and the ball actually hit the ground before Hansbrough got to it... well, I want to say Hansbrough beat Boozer to the ball, but Boozer didn't give the appearance of actually participating in the race. He just watched.

Another glaring example was in transition, a 2-on-2 situation, with Boozer actually back and in position, yet Danny Granger dribbled from halfcourt all the way to the rim for an easy layup, and Boozer did little more than escort him there. He made no attempt to protect the rim. You don't have to get dragged into the muck and goon it up like the Pacers - you play their game, it's a strategic win for them. But you don't just concede two points without demanding a toll be paid and planting in Granger's head that the next time he comes in there, he may again get a close-up look at the hardwood.

The number of shots Boozer did not contest, the number of loose balls he did not pursue, the number of opportunities for physical play that he passed on... basically, anything that doesn't show up on a stat sheet has not interested Boozer. But in this kind of playoff series, it's all the stuff that doesn't get tallied on the stat sheet that wins you games. In a game that comes down to one possession, failure to roll up your sleeves and do those things is what kills you.

If Boozer gives you 20 & 10, he's a net positive on the court. At 15 points with low-percentage jump shooting, his lack of defense or hustle makes him a net negative. I'd rather have Taj Gibson out there, take his 11 points and 9 rebounds, but know he's going to track down loose balls and contest every shot. That's much more effective until Boozer gets his ankle right and/or gets his head right.

So as we look ahead to Game 5, there's no reason to expect the Bulls don't finish this off at the United Center. But look for evidence that Rose's ankle is bothering him, and look for some change in the status quo vis'a'vis Boozer.