Thursday, May 26, 2011

Postmortem

It was an undeniably fun season, and a season that advanced the Bulls out of the dreaded "Indiana Pacers Cycle" of finishing in the back half of the playoff field, never having the cap space to sign free agents, and never having a high enough draft pick to improve. The Bulls are a contender now.

But they're not there yet. Some adjustments need to be made. Some things need to be improved.

They have a 22 year-old star who, in his first foray deep into the playoffs, learned some hard lessons. This was not a bump in the road that hasn't been encountered by virtually every star in the history of the game to win a title; you have to walk before you can run, and there is no way around it - something Kevin Durant learned, as well, this spring.

There are areas of his game to be improved - and if Derrick Rose has shown us anything, it's that he'll put the work in to do it. Expect to see a jump shot refined even further by the fall. Expect to see another step taken on defense. And expect to see the addition of at least a rudimentary post game.

On the bench, the Bulls have a head coach who met the first and most important goal: achieving buy-in from his star and his team. And Tom Thibodeau is a certified defensive guru.

But we have seen repeatedly throughout the playoffs, and acutely in the Miami series, his Achilles heel: he's not exactly an X's and O's whiz at the offensive end. Whether it's an endgame play against the Pacers that results in Carlos Boozer taking a three-pointer at the buzzer, frequent difficulties even drawing up an inbounds play against the Heat, or the constant inability to get Derrick Rose out of the clutter and with some room to work, there were too many sets that gave us unpleasant Vinny Del Negro flashbacks.

(Thinking back to when Rose squared off with LeBron in the playoffs a year ago, Del Negro did a better job of getting everyone out of Rose's way so he could do his thing than Thibodeau was able to in this series.)

Thibodeau revealed that he really needs an offensive coordinator. He needs a Tex Winter to his Phil Jackson. I don't know who that is. But somewhere that guy is out there, and the Bulls need to spare no expense to get him.

These adjustments that need to be made by Rose and Thibodeau are fairly do-able. However, what will not be so easy to clean up is the doozy of a mistake made in signing Carlos Boozer.

Look, no one thought we were getting Larry Nance at the defensive end of the floor. Given what we thought he could provide in terms of a diversified offensive threat and on the boards, we figured we could accept mediocrity on defense from Carlos.

We didn't even get that. We got rank indifference on defense - which is a cancer on a team built upon a foundation of defensive responsibility.

And even that may have been bearable if Boozer's low post game hadn't vanished.

What we ended up with for $14 million this year was a player who couldn't even be on the floor in the latter stages of contested playoff games.

This has the potential to be even more damaging because Taj Gibson, who at present is better at basketball than Boozer, will surely leave via free agency in search of starters' minutes and dollars when he has the chance.

Not long ago I came up with some trade possibilities. Two of them - Boozer, Noah, and the future Charlotte pick for Dwight Howard, and Boozer for Paul Pierce, are now pipe dreams. After Boozer's performance in these playoffs, he's nothing short of a toxic asset. Consequently, the Bulls need to concoct a TARP plan for their roster. This is going to entail parting with multiple draft picks to entice a team to take Boozer off their hands, and probably accepting no more than 50 cents on the dollar in terms of production in return.

I still believe Boozer for Brandon Roy - who is equally expensive and has questions about his knees - is somewhat realistic. The Blazers have a very solid young shooting guard in Wesley Matthews signed long-term at reasonable money, but they are desperate up front. Boozer's defensive indifference will not be nearly as problematic in the Western Conference. But after what we have seen for the last several weeks, Portland may also need that Charlotte pick thrown in to sweeten the deal, and possibly even one of the Bulls' two picks in this June's draft. It's expensive, but probably necessary.

Similarly, I think Boozer and the same collection of picks to Denver for Al Harrington - an aging veteran who is due $28 million over the next four years and could probably be a serviceable reserve for that span - along with restricted free agent Arron Afflalo in a sign-and-trade - might appeal to a Nuggets team lacking in frontcourt punch. Boozer paired with Nene up front could be effective in the West, while Afflalo would neatly upgrade the Bulls' shooting guard situation.

When they signed Boozer, the Bulls thought they were getting the "2" in a 1-2 punch with Derrick Rose. It didn't work out that way. Now they need to wriggle out of that mistake - no matter what the cost - and regroup.

The Bulls can overtake Miami. While we don't know how rapid the descent will be, Dwyane Wade has left his cruising altitude and in due time will come in for a landing. Haslem and Miller are both 31 and declining, as well. There is no one on Miami who will ever be better than he is today. On the other hand, we have not seen the best basketball yet from Rose, Omer Asik and Taj Gibson, and there may even be one level of upward mobility remaining for Deng and Noah.

The Heat, like the Bulls, have a midlevel exception this summer, but they lack the draft assets the Bulls own this year and in the future. And they have no tradeable assets short of breaking up their nucleus. Who is going to be the guy in the Miami front office who goes to LeBron and informs him that they're trading Wade?

While most looked at last summer as "the" offseason because of the bounty of big names available, this next summer will actually turn out to be more critical because the consolation prize from last summer turned out to be a flat-out bust.

There won't be a "decision" this time around. But with the imperative to move Boozer, two first round picks to use or trade, and a midlevel exception to spend, a reorganization into a team that can continue its ascent and pose a greater threat to Miami does hang in the balance.

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