Trade Rose?

There is what I call a "rationalist" school of thought in terms of what to hope for when it comes to your sports teams. Its main tenet is aiming for the next possible championship, and you should hope for any event that furthers that goal.

Now, I don't necessarily, as a fan, subscribe to a "rationalist" approach to an exercise - fandom - that is inherently irrational. After all, there is exactly no consequence to the fan if any game is lost. The actual conditions of my life were not affected any more by the Jordan Championship era than they were by the Tim Floyd dark ages. Yes, I got more enjoyment from watching the Bulls during the former. But then again, I got some real enjoyment watching a couple of good Scott Skiles seasons, as I did watching Derrick Rose since he came into the league. The existential enjoyment that comes from enjoying sports and being part of a tribal, communal "rooting" experience comes almost as much (for most people) just from the very existence of consequential games.

Some, most notably 670 The Score's Dan Bernstein, refer to anything short of having at least a 50/50 chance of winning a title as "basketball hell". Observers of that ilk actually get more enjoyment from really bad basketball than they get from a team that is very good but not clearly the best, because being awful does not burden the fan with any realistic hopes. The emotional burden of being close enough to the prize to plausibly hope for it is simply too much for them to bear, so they retreat into the "rationalist" ramparts in order to take the inherent emotionalism of fandom out of it.

As a fan, I don't lean that way. But if you're an executive of any sports team, where it's your JOB to win the next championship... the businesslike "rationalist" approach is how you must prosecute it. That's your fiduciary responsibility.

To that end...

There is a strong rationalist argument that the Bulls won't win a title in the next four years. I personally believe it might be possible to overcome LeBron and the Heat before then, but any rational situation analysis must at least grant that Miami will reside at or near the top of the table for the next few years.

Further, given the style of his game, it's reasonable to question just how long of a prime Derrick Rose is going to have - and reasonable to question whether that prime will extend further into the future than that of LeBron James.

I am not going to offer an opinion on these matters right now. What I am going to do, however, is accept these premises for the sake of argument, and apply the rationalist approach.

And if you carry this to its logical conclusion, then there is only one rational course of action:

Trade Derrick Rose.

To win the next possible NBA Championship, the objective should be to optimize a roster for 2016-2020 - at least so that you catch the tail end of LeBron James' prime, or to consider the possibility that the Heat could break up and LeBron will cast his lot with another franchise once his two buddies no longer represent a strong enough supporting cast anymore.

The Bulls should want to load up on future assets, and at least put themselves in a cap situation where they could be an option for LeBron or Durant if and when either hits the market.

Optimizing the roster for the latter half of this decade means that selling high on Deng and Noah right now is the thing to do - they will both be well north of 30 by then - in addition to cashing in on Rose and Taj Gibson.

Here's the blueprint:

1. Luol Deng to Atlanta for expiring contracts and one of their two first round picks, in the middle of the round.

2. Joakim Noah to Oklahoma City for Kendrick Perkins, Perry Jones and the Toronto pick the Thunder own in one of the next three years. Jones is a developmental project. Perkins is a placeholder for two more years - someone still has to play center while you re-tool. The pick is the value here. You're getting a late lottery pick for Noah.

3. Taj Gibson to the Knicks for Iman Shumpert. Gibson is going to be 28 this spring, so if your window is four years out, you're not looking at him as a mainstay at that point. In New York, Chandler and Stoudemire are already 30, and Stoudemire is a shadow of his former self. For a team that wants to compete right now, Gibson would be an appealing option at the 4. At 22, Shumpert should be in the middle of his prime when the Bulls are ready to compete again. This deal should work on the cap with Gibson as a base year player.

4. Derrick Rose to Charlotte for Kemba Walker and their #1 pick this year (which will be in the top 3). You get a promising young point guard who is two years younger than Rose and whose game should give him a longer shelf life... plus another pick at the top of the draft.

So now you have your own pick this year, Atlanta's pick this year, Charlotte's top-3 pick this year, Toronto's pick in one of the next three drafts, and the future Charlotte pick you already have from the Tyrus Thomas deal. Plus, the Bulls' own picks are going to be higher for the next year or two.

In terms of bodies for the future, you have Walker (22), Shumpert (22), Jimmy Butler (23) and eventually Nikola Mirotic (22). Four years from now they will all be 26-27. Plus you have projects like Marquis Teague and Perry Jones.

And on top of all of this, the Bulls will have cap flexibility for the next two summers, with another $25 million worth of Boozer and Kendrick Perkins coming off the cap in the summer of 2015 - right as Walker, Shumpert, Butler and Mirotic should be peaking and right after the Bulls have loaded their roster with draft picks the previous two summers.

If you want to take the "rationalist" approach and optimize your roster for when the Heat might start to falter or disintegrate, this is how you do it.