With the lottery done, it's time to take a crack at my first mock draft of the year. This year is tough because Cleveland could take Nerlens Noel or Otto Porter at #1, and either option creates a radically different lottery.
Predictably, the Cavs are playing it close to the vest. I'll do my best to jump into their heads at this point and take it from there.
1. Cleveland: Nerlens Noel, C, Kentucky
Ultimately, while Porter is a very good prospect who has a fairly high floor, he doesn't set himself apart as a prospect you just can't afford to pass on. Noel, on the other hand, has a chance to be a game-changer on the defensive end. If you're going to compare him to a current or former NBA player, I would compare him to Theo Ratliff, who for a decade was one of the game's pre-eminent defensive big men. These guys don't come around all that often (although this is the second straight year one of them is coming out of Kentucky...) At any rate, until someone convinces me it's Porter, this is my guess.
2. Orlando: Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas
You can make a case for Trey Burke here, as the thoroughly average Jameer Nelson has only one year left on his contract. But McLemore has all the classic NBA shooting guard skills, and not being undersized for his position gives him more reliable upside than Burke, at a position that is as big a need as point guard.
3. Washington: Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown
And he doesn't even have to leave town! The Wiz have their long-term backcourt set with John Wall and Bradley Beal. Anthony Bennett is a possibility here, as that is also a position of need, but at #3 you can't really pass up on Porter.
4. Charlotte: Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV
The Hornets (yes, we can say that again!) need skill and athleticism in the frontcourt, and Bennett brings plenty. His body type is definitely that of a power forward, although ideally you'd like him to be a couple of inches taller. But the Canadian can handle, shoot, and has a legit back to the basket game.
5. Phoenix: Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana
Oladipo is a top level athlete who projects to be an elite defender, but it's the emergence of his offensive game that has vaulted him up draft boards. Even top shooting guards like Tim Hardaway Jr. and Brandon Paul had a hard time stopping Oladipo off the dribble, and his three point shot reached a surprising level of refinement. Because of his defense, you could argue that he's a safer bet than even McLemore... and if his offensive game continues to progress, he could be a major piece for the Suns.
6. New Orleans: Trey Burke, PG, Michigan
Burke took incredible strides as a sophomore under John Beilein, progressing from a scoring lead guard to a true playmaker, someone who could run an offense while also possessing the ability to take over a game. He is already a plus three-point shooter, and despite his size he is a handful in the lane who can get all the way to the rim even at a hair under 6' tall. His defense improved mightily as a sophomore, as well. If he were three inches taller, he would be the clear #2 pick in this draft. As it is, the Pelicans should have a long term starter in Burke.
7. Sacramento: Cody Zeller, PF/C, Indiana
I have long believed that Zeller would make a better pro than he was a college player, as NBA 4's are going to have a hard time dealing with Zeller both on the perimeter and in the post. Zeller showed in Chicago that he's plenty athletic to match up with power forwards, and as he adds strength he should be able to give minutes at center, too. He's a nice insurance policy for the Demarcus Cousins wild card, and a compelling player to pair with Cousins in a potentially imposing frontcourt.
8. Detroit: Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse
C.J. McCollum is a popular pick here, but I can't see the Pistons going for another 6'3", score-first combo guard. MCW has incredible size and athleticism for the position, and he's a true point guard. If he develops the same court sense, he could be a bigger Rajon Rondo. And if he fixes his jump shot - which recent testing suggests may be happening - his upside is almost unlimited. He would make an ideal backcourt mate for Brandon Knight.
9. Minnesota: Shabazz Muhammad, SG/SF, UCLA
Minnesota needs athleticism on the wings. Muhammad is not an elite wing athlete. But he can score, and the T'Wolves need someone who can do that, too. Muhammad may only be a scorer, but he lacks the baggage of someone like Michael Beasley. In a perfect world, Oladipo is the guy Minnesota would want here, and for that reason the T'Wolves might be a candidate to trade up.
10. Portland: Alex Len, C, Maryland
The jury remains out on Meyers Leonard, and you can never have too much size. With Damian Lillard, Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum, the Blazers are pretty set outside. Len, a pure low-post center, would be a nice complement to the face-up game of LaMarcus Aldridge.
11. Philadelphia: Mason Plumlee, PF/C, Duke
Philly needs size, and Plumlee is both big and athletic. He can play in the low post, and run the floor with almost any big man in the game.
12. Oklahoma City: C.J. McCollum, PG/SG, Lehigh
This is both good value and a good fit. McCollum could back up Russell Westbrook as well as play with him, providing the backcourt scoring that James Harden took with him to Houston.
13. Dallas: Dennis Schroeder, PG, Germany
This 19 year-old emerged late with lightning quickness, a pure point guard's skills, and a competent jump shot. Who better to usher him into the NBA than countryman Dirk Nowitzki? Dallas is heading into a rebuilding phase, and Schroeder has the potential to grow into a fixture.
14. Utah: Dario Saric, SF, Croatia
With a need at the point, the Jazz would have loved to see Schroeder or Carter-Williams still on the board here. Instead they go for the upside of this versatile, 19 year-old import. At 6'10", Saric possesses some real point-forward skills, a streaky jumper that should improve, and a basketball IQ perhaps unmatched in the draft.
15. Milwaukee: Sergey Karasev, SF, Russia
Milwaukee needs shooting (even after acquiring JJ Redick), and the small forward position is the Bucks' most unsettled. Karasev may be the best shooter in the draft.
16. Boston: Giannis Adetokuompo, SF, Greece
Adetokuompo is perhaps the most intriguing player in the draft. A long, athletic freak at 6'9", he often plays point guard for his Greek league team. Incredibly raw at only 18 years old, Giannis is likely to be stashed in Europe for 2-3 years... making him ready to come over right as Boston's rebuilding is in full swing. There is no one at #16 that will be an immediate boon to a rebuilding team, so this is a perfect opportunity for the Celtics to shoot for the stars.
17. Atlanta: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia
Good size, solid athleticism, solid shooting, and the ability to create make Caldwell-Pope an intriguing choice for a rebuilding Hawks team. He still needs to improve as a finisher and on the defensive end, but with the right coaching, the upside is there.
18. Atlanta: Kelly Olynyk, PF/C, Gonzaga
Olynyk has an impressive skill game for a player of his size, able to shoot from the perimeter and dribble-drive. Too good a value to pass up here.
19. Cleveland: Reggie Bullock, SF, North Carolina
Not a sexy pick, and probably a reach here (which makes the Cavs a candidate to trade down), but Bullock would slot in nicely at the 3 between Tristan Thompson and Dion Waiters. Bullock has size and length, making him an above average defender at a premium NBA position, and he's a terrific standstill jump shooter to stretch the floor for Uncle Drew.
20. Chicago: Gorgui Dieng, PF/C, Louisville
A lot depends on whether the Bulls think they will be able to retain Marco Belinelli. Not possessing his Larry Bird rights, the Bulls - in luxury tax territory - can only sign minimum-salary players. Belinelli probably played himself into more market value, however he has a very good role as the third wing on a potential contender. If he leaves, I would look for Michigan's Tim Hardaway Jr. in this spot. But for now, Dieng would give the Bulls an extra big man who can give them some of what they lost when Houston pried Omer Asik away. Dieng can defend and block shots, pass out of the high post, and has the potential to make a staple out of the foul line jumper. Pitt C Steven Adams would be a possibility here, too, and possesses more upside, but Dieng is more likely to contribute right away, and this is what the Bulls need. The Bulls don't have minutes to give for on-the-job training, and Tom Thibodeau has a higher threshold for throwing rookies out on the floor than most coaches. Adams would likely be a better pick 3 or 4 years down the line... but the Bulls need to compete now.
21. Utah: Steven Adams, C, Pitt
The young Kiwi has excellent athleticism and should be able to play defense at the NBA level fairly soon. His offensive game is a work in progress, but he does show signs that it's there. For a rebuilding team, Adams is a high-value pick at #21. Getting Saric and Adams would be a very good draft for the Jazz.
22. Brooklyn: Jamaal Franklin, SG, San Diego State
Franklin led the Aztecs in virtually every statistical category as a junior. He needs to improve his jumper, but he has excellent length, is well-built, athletic, and versatile. While he may be a jack-of-all-trades/master-of-none, Franklin's outstanding motor should at least ensure he can be a rotation contributor, perhaps like Ronnie Brewer when he was in Utah. With MarShon Brooks on the outs with the Nets, Franklin would give them the option of going small with Joe Johnson at the 3 and Gerald Wallace at the 4.
23. Indiana: Shane Larkin, PG, Miami
Larkin emerged as an explosive player for the 'Canes as a sophomore. His size will always be an issue, and he doesn't have Trey Burke's repertoire to overcome that. But he has the potential to be a long term high-end backup or low-end starter - and for the Pacers a nice game-ready complement to George Hill.
24. New York: Jeff Withey, C, Kansas
The Knicks need everything... and the Knicks need nothing. But they are definitely in "win-now" mode, so if they can get a guy who can help them off the bench right away, that would be a win at #24. Withey is not the strongest, and he doesn't have a terribly impressive offensive game, but he is a gifted shot blocker and can defend the rim when Tyson Chandler is not in the game.
25. L.A. Clippers: Tim Hardaway Jr., SG, Michigan
Hardaway stood out at the Chicago camp, earning high marks for his intensity and professionalism. At Michigan he displayed an NBA-level perimeter jump shot, but an ability to create was never in evidence, and his commitment to defense did not begin to surface until well into his junior season. But he has the length, tested well athletically in Chicago, appears willing to work at it, and if he's properly taught he might become more than an adequate defender. Even just being able to stretch a defense while defending his position would make him an NBA rotation player - and exactly what the Clippers need. If his ability to create exists but was simply not utilized within the structure of John Beilein's offense, he could be a hidden gem.
26. Minnesota: Glen Rice Jr., SG/SF, D-League
So, we get back-to-back sons of '90s NBA stars here. Minnesota needs athletes on the wings, and Rice brings brings size and athleticism. He brings some baggage, too, having been benched by Paul Hewitt at Georgia Tech, then the next year dismissed from the team by Brian Gregory. But once he got to the D-League, the former top prospect out of high school emerged as a prolific scorer. He's not great as a creator, but like his father he's a plus standstill sniper, which should fit well with Ricky Rubio. He has the physical tools to defend, but will need some solid instruction and motivation to develop. All told, this would be a nice high-upside value pick this late.
27. Denver: Erick Green, PG, Virginia Tech
Andre Miller can't play forever, so Denver needs to start cultivating a new backup to Ty Lawson. Green is primarily a scorer with the ability to get - and make - perimeter shots. But he does have the ability to run an offense, and is adept in the pick-and-roll game that is such an NBA staple. With a 6'7" wingspan, Green has the potential to log some minutes alongside Lawson should last year's first round pick, Frenchman Evan Fournier, not develop.
28. San Antonio: Lucas Nogueira, C, Brazil
"Bebe" has a physical profile that is reminiscent of Denver's JaVale McGee. The 20 year-old is rail thin at 6'11", but is a freakish athlete and can dominate the defensive end of the floor. If he gets stronger and adds a modicum of offensive skill, Nogueira could become a difference-maker. He might be best off stashed overseas for another year or two, which is fine by the Spurs. A potential Marcus Camby clone.
29. Oklahoma City: Rudy Gobert, C, France
Gobert does not have much of an offensive game beyond dunking - which he can do almost without jumping thanks to possessing the wingspan of an Airbus. His athletic testing in Chicago was underwhelming, but there is only so athletic you need to be with a 9'7" standing vertical. He's 19 and needs a lot of development. But the Thunder would probably prefer not to add two rookies right now anyway, and are looking ahead to the day they replace Kendrick Perkins.
30. Phoenix: Mouhammadou Jaiteh, C, France
Yet another physically impressive foreign center for a team that is willing to wait on long-term potential and isn't looking for immediate help. Despite being the second youngest player in the draft, not turning 19 until November, Jaiteh wants to make his way to the NBA quickly. The Suns will hope he can grow along with them.
Friday, May 24, 2013
Monday, May 6, 2013
What is Derrick Rose's value-added, anyway?
The year before winning the lottery and drafting Derrick Rose, the Bulls won 33 games. And in Rose's first two years under the generally confused Vinny Del Negro, the Bulls finished an even 41-41 each year.
Del Negro was dismissed after Rose's second year - which was also the Summer of Lebron/Wade/Bosh/David Lee/Joe Johnson... during which the Bulls landed Carlos Boozer/C.J. Watson/Kyle Korver.
Boozer was widely considered to be a flop, infuriating fans with his disdain for defense and passivity on offense. Watson and Korver were nice bench players, supporting iron man Luol Deng with the fabled "Bench Mob". Little the Bulls added that summer would have portended a big step forward for the team.
Yet, incredibly, the Bulls jumped from 41 to 62 wins, finished with the league's best record, advanced to the East finals, and lost to Miami in 5 games (although by a total of a mere 11 points in the series).
Adding Rose, for his first two years, added 8 wins over what the Bulls were before his arrival.
Adding Tom Thibodeau, on the other hand, added 21 wins. Rose deservedly won MVP. Luol Deng was transformed, in the eyes of Bulls fans, from a terrible John Paxson contract decision to one of the game's best small forwards. Joakim Noah has continued his upward trajectory and has emerged into a legitimate All-Star capable of leading the way to victory on the road in a playoff game seven.
It is fair to ask, then, if the driving force behind the Bulls' competitiveness is not merely the individual brilliance of Derrick Rose, but rather, the style of play and relentless professional culture instilled by Thibodeau - carried out through linchpins Noah and Deng.
Conventional wisdom says that superstars win championships, and more often than not this is true. However, there are precedents for teams winning titles with just a lot of very good players. The most oft-cited example was the Larry Brown Pistons, who won a title without a single player who could be argued was even in the top 3 at his position, but had five - Billups, Hamilton, Prince, Rasheed Wallace and Ben Wallace - who were all in the top half dozen. Further, the Spurs have a very clear shot at winning the West this year with an aging nucleus and not a single player that could still be called a superstar.
When Reggie Rose made the unfortunate comment this winter that he felt the Bulls had not done enough to build around Derrick, he said that it could affect his decision to push it and come back this season. As we sit at one year and one week since the injury with Derrick still not back on the court, it's hard to avoid the disturbing reality that Reggie gave us a very clear insight into the thinking of Team Rose: throw this season away.
Trouble is... they were wrong. In Rose's absence, Carlos Boozer had his best year as a Bull. This is interesting because for his first two years in Chicago, Boozer actually played much better when Rose was out and he was a bigger part of the offense. Noah and Deng both made the All-Star team. The mercurial Nate Robinson stepped forward with scoring binges that won games for the Bulls, most memorably in Game 4 against the Nets. Jimmy Butler blossomed into a very solid bench player, a three-position defensive stopper with an emerging offensive game. He even acquitted himself well in a starting role and provided hope that with further improvement of his jump shot he might well be the answer at the shooting guard position. (After watching the development of Noah, does anyone want to bet against Thibodeau's ability to get one more level of improvement out of Butler?) Even afterthought signing Marco Belinelli stepped up with some big games when called upon, in keeping with Thibodeau's "we need everyone" mantra.
Forgetting all about the tempest surrounding Rose's return, it is very fair to ask not whether Rose has a good enough supporting cast, but whether Rose or what you could get in TRADE for Rose would give better support for Thibodeau, Noah and Deng.
Very few NBA coaches truly add value. Their function is to provide a little strategic and tactical direction but also to keep players who make more money than they do all pulling in the same direction. College coaches might scheme and develop their way to the Final Four, but conventional wisdom says that coaches can't do that in the NBA.
We have mounting evidence that Thibodeau is one of the few coaches - perhaps the NBA's only coach - who adds value in much the way a superstar player does. And once you accept that premise, a range of options present themselves in the quest to build a Championship team that perhaps we might not have considered before.
And if Derrick Rose wants to play in his hometown for the long haul, it's something that the protective circle around him might want to think hard about.
Del Negro was dismissed after Rose's second year - which was also the Summer of Lebron/Wade/Bosh/David Lee/Joe Johnson... during which the Bulls landed Carlos Boozer/C.J. Watson/Kyle Korver.
Boozer was widely considered to be a flop, infuriating fans with his disdain for defense and passivity on offense. Watson and Korver were nice bench players, supporting iron man Luol Deng with the fabled "Bench Mob". Little the Bulls added that summer would have portended a big step forward for the team.
Yet, incredibly, the Bulls jumped from 41 to 62 wins, finished with the league's best record, advanced to the East finals, and lost to Miami in 5 games (although by a total of a mere 11 points in the series).
Adding Rose, for his first two years, added 8 wins over what the Bulls were before his arrival.
Adding Tom Thibodeau, on the other hand, added 21 wins. Rose deservedly won MVP. Luol Deng was transformed, in the eyes of Bulls fans, from a terrible John Paxson contract decision to one of the game's best small forwards. Joakim Noah has continued his upward trajectory and has emerged into a legitimate All-Star capable of leading the way to victory on the road in a playoff game seven.
It is fair to ask, then, if the driving force behind the Bulls' competitiveness is not merely the individual brilliance of Derrick Rose, but rather, the style of play and relentless professional culture instilled by Thibodeau - carried out through linchpins Noah and Deng.
Conventional wisdom says that superstars win championships, and more often than not this is true. However, there are precedents for teams winning titles with just a lot of very good players. The most oft-cited example was the Larry Brown Pistons, who won a title without a single player who could be argued was even in the top 3 at his position, but had five - Billups, Hamilton, Prince, Rasheed Wallace and Ben Wallace - who were all in the top half dozen. Further, the Spurs have a very clear shot at winning the West this year with an aging nucleus and not a single player that could still be called a superstar.
When Reggie Rose made the unfortunate comment this winter that he felt the Bulls had not done enough to build around Derrick, he said that it could affect his decision to push it and come back this season. As we sit at one year and one week since the injury with Derrick still not back on the court, it's hard to avoid the disturbing reality that Reggie gave us a very clear insight into the thinking of Team Rose: throw this season away.
Trouble is... they were wrong. In Rose's absence, Carlos Boozer had his best year as a Bull. This is interesting because for his first two years in Chicago, Boozer actually played much better when Rose was out and he was a bigger part of the offense. Noah and Deng both made the All-Star team. The mercurial Nate Robinson stepped forward with scoring binges that won games for the Bulls, most memorably in Game 4 against the Nets. Jimmy Butler blossomed into a very solid bench player, a three-position defensive stopper with an emerging offensive game. He even acquitted himself well in a starting role and provided hope that with further improvement of his jump shot he might well be the answer at the shooting guard position. (After watching the development of Noah, does anyone want to bet against Thibodeau's ability to get one more level of improvement out of Butler?) Even afterthought signing Marco Belinelli stepped up with some big games when called upon, in keeping with Thibodeau's "we need everyone" mantra.
Forgetting all about the tempest surrounding Rose's return, it is very fair to ask not whether Rose has a good enough supporting cast, but whether Rose or what you could get in TRADE for Rose would give better support for Thibodeau, Noah and Deng.
Very few NBA coaches truly add value. Their function is to provide a little strategic and tactical direction but also to keep players who make more money than they do all pulling in the same direction. College coaches might scheme and develop their way to the Final Four, but conventional wisdom says that coaches can't do that in the NBA.
We have mounting evidence that Thibodeau is one of the few coaches - perhaps the NBA's only coach - who adds value in much the way a superstar player does. And once you accept that premise, a range of options present themselves in the quest to build a Championship team that perhaps we might not have considered before.
And if Derrick Rose wants to play in his hometown for the long haul, it's something that the protective circle around him might want to think hard about.
Thursday, May 2, 2013
The Rose Conundrum
The Bulls are headed for Brooklyn for a climactic Game 7 after losing one of the gutsiest efforts you will ever see from a basketball team. Kirk Hinrich missed his second straight game with a calf injury. Luol Deng's viral infection was so bad that he had to have a spinal tap before the game to rule out viral meningitis. Taj Gibson and Nate Robinson fell victim to the same bug - with Robinson literally throwing up on the bench during timeouts. Joakim Noah continues to gut his way through plantar fascitis, while Taj Gibson continues to wear a knee brace.
And Derrick Rose, at one year plus four days since tearing his ACL, continues to sit on the bench in a suit.
Kirk Hinrich spoke with the Chicago Tribune's K.C. Johnson on Tuesday. He talked about needing to give Rose "the benefit of the doubt", and how the team "trusts" Rose.
What incredible subtext there.
You cannot give someone the benefit of the doubt if there isn't some doubt there.
And you would not need to trust Rose if you could plainly see by watching him on the practice court that he's not ready.
Appearing on 670 The Score on Wednesday, Johnson maintains that Bulls - even privately - continue to back Rose. But an experienced reporter like K.C. must understand that no one speaks to the team's beat writer on the basis of confidentiality. If you don't want a story even in the bloodstream, you don't tell it to a reporter, even "privately". Just because they haven't told him doesn't mean they're not thinking hard about this, as the subtext of Hinrich's comments reveal.
Rose has deservedly earned a great deal of capital with his teammates, and even if they were miffed by his continued absence, it is highly unlikely they would throw him under the bus even even on the deepest of background.
(What will be interesting is when we hear from guys like Rip Hamilton and Nazr Mohammed after the season when they are no longer Bulls - and they no longer need to concern themselves with the integrity of the clubhouse or facing Bulls teammates.)
While the freak-of-nature return of Adrian Peterson is not a fair benchmark for Rose, let's at least try to form a coherent context for his continued absence.
Iman Shumpert tore his ACL on April 28, 2012 - the day before Rose. He returned for the Knicks on January 17 - nearly four months ago.
Jamal Crawford tore his ACL early in his career, with the Bulls, and missed 8 months.
Ricky Rubio tore his ACL on March 9, 2012 - seven weeks before Rose - and returned to the court for the Timberwolves on December 15. He was out just over nine months.
Corey Brewer of the Timberwolves, an athletic wing player, tore his ACL on November 29, 2008. He played 33 minutes in Minnesota's opener 11 months later after playing the whole preseason.
Rose was cleared to return to practice on January 31 - over three months ago, 9 months out from the injury.
Rose was cleared for game action - his knee deemed 100% sound - on March 9... seven weeks ago, just over 10 months out from the injury.
The Tribune's Johnson, during an interview with the Mac and Spiegs show on the Score, said that he believes Rose has made a "strategic decision not to play this year".
For $16 million and while the Bulls are fighting through non-stop carnage, we're past the point where this is acceptable anymore. That kind of "strategic decision" can't stay in Rose's hands indefinitely, not this long after he has been cleared.
By contrast, just today the Knicks' Shumpert had this to say:
"I'm not really thinking about my knee. We've just got to win games. I've got the whole summer to work on things, to get myself to where I want to be individually, athletically. But right now, with what we've got and how my knee feels, it's good enough to play and I've got to go out there and make plays."
Shumpert and Rose were injured on back to back days, yet Shumpert came back four months earlier (and counting).
One can understand where this excessive caution comes from. Derrick's brother, Reggie, tore his ACL and never came back the same from it. And Rose has had a protective circle around him for his entire life, shielding him from the dangers of his Englewood neighborhood and managing his college recruitment. Derrick has likely never made a weighty decision in his life and may not be equipped to make this one, either. This isn't a matter of motivation, and those who question Rose's desire are missing the mark badly. This is a matter of decision-making capacity.
But all of this represents mildly informed speculation. What we know is this:
The Rose brush fire would be incredibly easy to douse if the Bulls wanted to. Tom Thibodeau could say on any day: Derrick still doesn't look nearly like himself out there, and we don't want him pushing it. He's too valuable to take even a small risk with.
Instead, Thibs just tells us every day that Rose is improving, getting closer... which tells us nothing about where he actually is right now.
By the same token, Hinrich could easily say: Trust me, guys, I'm on the practice floor with him every day. That's not Derrick Rose. He's not ready yet.
Instead Hinrich speaks of having to give Rose the benefit of the doubt.
The Bulls are not telling us that Rose doesn't look ready, or hasn't been declared fit by their medical and training staff. They're telling us that he hasn't declared himself ready to play yet - and every indication is that he and his camp made the decision long ago to run out the clock on this season.
If Rose truly is not ready to play yet for some physical reason, then we should be very worried at this point. Given that his timeline has already extended past that of almost every other NBA ACL injury in the last decade, there would exist a real chance that Rose may in fact never be the same explosive player again.
(Note: the Score's Dan Bernstein maintains that he has been told, off the record, by people who see Rose in practice that he is dominating and looks as physically impressive as ever.)
And if Rose cannot mentally get himself in a place where he can play as he always has, even after weeks upon weeks going full speed on the practice floor, then we need to be concerned that he will never again be the warrior who plays the game with abandon and no regard for his body. Mentally, he may be permanently damaged goods.
We're past 12 months now. If he really can't play, for either mental or physical reasons, then don't we have a real problem here?
But if this, as Johnson believes, is a "strategic decision", and Rose has outsourced his own free will to his hyper-protective big brother, then this gets sticky.
If the Bulls, after going up 3-1 over Brooklyn, proceed to drop three straight in the wake of Hinrich's injury - or if the Bulls prevail in Game 7 but face Miami without Rose - it's almost impossible to imagine that Rose will not have spent a great deal of his hard-earned capital with his teammates, the Bulls organization, and the fans.
And then it would no longer be possible to view Rose as categorically untouchable as the Bulls seek to compete for a Championship.
If New Orleans would part with a top-3 pick (which would presumably be used on Michigan PG Trey Burke) along with the himself-recovering Eric Gordon, would the Bulls not have to consider that for Rose?
If Charlotte landed the #1 pick (presumably Kansas SG Ben McLemore) and were willing to package that with PG Kemba Walker (nearly 18 points and 6 assists a game this season at age 22), would you not have to consider that, too?
If Philadelphia would part with Jrue Holiday (18 points, 8 assists this year at age 22) along with the disappointing but still young and serviceable Evan Turner, and the #11 pick... that, too, would have to be considered.
Such scenarios would have once been beyond unthinkable. Rose was not only an electrifying player but the ultimate competitor and perhaps sports' most humble and likable superstar, not to mention a hometown hero.
But we are now reaching a threshold where either something might be very wrong with him, or if not, then his relationship with the team and city is on the verge of backsliding catastrophically.
And Derrick Rose, at one year plus four days since tearing his ACL, continues to sit on the bench in a suit.
Kirk Hinrich spoke with the Chicago Tribune's K.C. Johnson on Tuesday. He talked about needing to give Rose "the benefit of the doubt", and how the team "trusts" Rose.
What incredible subtext there.
You cannot give someone the benefit of the doubt if there isn't some doubt there.
And you would not need to trust Rose if you could plainly see by watching him on the practice court that he's not ready.
Appearing on 670 The Score on Wednesday, Johnson maintains that Bulls - even privately - continue to back Rose. But an experienced reporter like K.C. must understand that no one speaks to the team's beat writer on the basis of confidentiality. If you don't want a story even in the bloodstream, you don't tell it to a reporter, even "privately". Just because they haven't told him doesn't mean they're not thinking hard about this, as the subtext of Hinrich's comments reveal.
Rose has deservedly earned a great deal of capital with his teammates, and even if they were miffed by his continued absence, it is highly unlikely they would throw him under the bus even even on the deepest of background.
(What will be interesting is when we hear from guys like Rip Hamilton and Nazr Mohammed after the season when they are no longer Bulls - and they no longer need to concern themselves with the integrity of the clubhouse or facing Bulls teammates.)
While the freak-of-nature return of Adrian Peterson is not a fair benchmark for Rose, let's at least try to form a coherent context for his continued absence.
Iman Shumpert tore his ACL on April 28, 2012 - the day before Rose. He returned for the Knicks on January 17 - nearly four months ago.
Jamal Crawford tore his ACL early in his career, with the Bulls, and missed 8 months.
Ricky Rubio tore his ACL on March 9, 2012 - seven weeks before Rose - and returned to the court for the Timberwolves on December 15. He was out just over nine months.
Corey Brewer of the Timberwolves, an athletic wing player, tore his ACL on November 29, 2008. He played 33 minutes in Minnesota's opener 11 months later after playing the whole preseason.
Rose was cleared to return to practice on January 31 - over three months ago, 9 months out from the injury.
Rose was cleared for game action - his knee deemed 100% sound - on March 9... seven weeks ago, just over 10 months out from the injury.
The Tribune's Johnson, during an interview with the Mac and Spiegs show on the Score, said that he believes Rose has made a "strategic decision not to play this year".
For $16 million and while the Bulls are fighting through non-stop carnage, we're past the point where this is acceptable anymore. That kind of "strategic decision" can't stay in Rose's hands indefinitely, not this long after he has been cleared.
By contrast, just today the Knicks' Shumpert had this to say:
"I'm not really thinking about my knee. We've just got to win games. I've got the whole summer to work on things, to get myself to where I want to be individually, athletically. But right now, with what we've got and how my knee feels, it's good enough to play and I've got to go out there and make plays."
Shumpert and Rose were injured on back to back days, yet Shumpert came back four months earlier (and counting).
One can understand where this excessive caution comes from. Derrick's brother, Reggie, tore his ACL and never came back the same from it. And Rose has had a protective circle around him for his entire life, shielding him from the dangers of his Englewood neighborhood and managing his college recruitment. Derrick has likely never made a weighty decision in his life and may not be equipped to make this one, either. This isn't a matter of motivation, and those who question Rose's desire are missing the mark badly. This is a matter of decision-making capacity.
But all of this represents mildly informed speculation. What we know is this:
The Rose brush fire would be incredibly easy to douse if the Bulls wanted to. Tom Thibodeau could say on any day: Derrick still doesn't look nearly like himself out there, and we don't want him pushing it. He's too valuable to take even a small risk with.
Instead, Thibs just tells us every day that Rose is improving, getting closer... which tells us nothing about where he actually is right now.
By the same token, Hinrich could easily say: Trust me, guys, I'm on the practice floor with him every day. That's not Derrick Rose. He's not ready yet.
Instead Hinrich speaks of having to give Rose the benefit of the doubt.
The Bulls are not telling us that Rose doesn't look ready, or hasn't been declared fit by their medical and training staff. They're telling us that he hasn't declared himself ready to play yet - and every indication is that he and his camp made the decision long ago to run out the clock on this season.
If Rose truly is not ready to play yet for some physical reason, then we should be very worried at this point. Given that his timeline has already extended past that of almost every other NBA ACL injury in the last decade, there would exist a real chance that Rose may in fact never be the same explosive player again.
(Note: the Score's Dan Bernstein maintains that he has been told, off the record, by people who see Rose in practice that he is dominating and looks as physically impressive as ever.)
And if Rose cannot mentally get himself in a place where he can play as he always has, even after weeks upon weeks going full speed on the practice floor, then we need to be concerned that he will never again be the warrior who plays the game with abandon and no regard for his body. Mentally, he may be permanently damaged goods.
We're past 12 months now. If he really can't play, for either mental or physical reasons, then don't we have a real problem here?
But if this, as Johnson believes, is a "strategic decision", and Rose has outsourced his own free will to his hyper-protective big brother, then this gets sticky.
If the Bulls, after going up 3-1 over Brooklyn, proceed to drop three straight in the wake of Hinrich's injury - or if the Bulls prevail in Game 7 but face Miami without Rose - it's almost impossible to imagine that Rose will not have spent a great deal of his hard-earned capital with his teammates, the Bulls organization, and the fans.
And then it would no longer be possible to view Rose as categorically untouchable as the Bulls seek to compete for a Championship.
If New Orleans would part with a top-3 pick (which would presumably be used on Michigan PG Trey Burke) along with the himself-recovering Eric Gordon, would the Bulls not have to consider that for Rose?
If Charlotte landed the #1 pick (presumably Kansas SG Ben McLemore) and were willing to package that with PG Kemba Walker (nearly 18 points and 6 assists a game this season at age 22), would you not have to consider that, too?
If Philadelphia would part with Jrue Holiday (18 points, 8 assists this year at age 22) along with the disappointing but still young and serviceable Evan Turner, and the #11 pick... that, too, would have to be considered.
Such scenarios would have once been beyond unthinkable. Rose was not only an electrifying player but the ultimate competitor and perhaps sports' most humble and likable superstar, not to mention a hometown hero.
But we are now reaching a threshold where either something might be very wrong with him, or if not, then his relationship with the team and city is on the verge of backsliding catastrophically.
Wednesday, March 27, 2013
I give up.
The Bulls are a team that on a nightly basis embodies the culture Tom Thibodeau has instilled in them: defensive principles executed rigorously. Never concede a game. Treat them all like playoff games. As a result, they have been in countless games they had no business competing in, and won a surprising percentage of them.
Luol Deng made his second straight All-Star Game. Joakim Noah improved, made his first All-Star Game, and is the frontrunner for NBA Defensive Player of the Year. Carlos Boozer has had his best year as a Bull.
Nate Robinson and Marco Belinelli, truth be known, have been big upgrades from C.J. Watson and Kyle Korver. Jimmy Butler has been an upgrade in the rotation over Ronnie Brewer. For the rare stretches of good health he has had, Kirk Hinrich has been a stabilizing force. "Bench Mob II" would have been better than "Bench Mob I" if they weren't spending so much time in the starting lineup.
They just had to hold out until Derrick Rose came back.
And he's not going to. Not this year. That much is becoming clear. And frankly, if I were Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson and Carlos Boozer, I would be feeling pretty burned right now.
These guys have absolutely gone to war on a nightly basis, kept their competitive edge, and tried to preserve a solid seed so that when Rose returned, they could step right back into the hunt for the East.
Yet after weeks of full speed practicing, Rose really seems content to pack it in on this season. I can't even believe I'm saying it, because the Derrick Rose we know has been a fierce competitor.
No one wants Rose to rush back. No one wants to subject him to ANY additional risk of injury. But we know at this point that he is not at risk. And for some reason, Rose doesn't want to play until he reaches 100% effectiveness, not 100% health.
I think he owes his team a little better.
But now we have reached the point where there simply isn't sufficient time for him to gradually ramp up his minutes to a full load by playoff time.
And if he can't get himself on the court for tonight's game against the Heat, as they bring their 27-game winning streak into the United Center... then it's clearly not happening this year.
At this point, the Bulls should make the rest of the season about getting as many minutes as possible for Jimmy Butler and Marquis Teague. Their development - and preserving the health of Deng and Noah - are now paramount.
Shut Kirk Hinrich down, too. He has been rickety all season, so let him get a start on healing up, training, and getting primed for next year.
We have now arrived at a place where if the Bulls are going to take the long view on Rose and not push him even a little bit to get out on the court, then they should look past this season on everything.
As Duke screamed as Drago was about to kill Apollo:
"Throw the damn towel!"
Luol Deng made his second straight All-Star Game. Joakim Noah improved, made his first All-Star Game, and is the frontrunner for NBA Defensive Player of the Year. Carlos Boozer has had his best year as a Bull.
Nate Robinson and Marco Belinelli, truth be known, have been big upgrades from C.J. Watson and Kyle Korver. Jimmy Butler has been an upgrade in the rotation over Ronnie Brewer. For the rare stretches of good health he has had, Kirk Hinrich has been a stabilizing force. "Bench Mob II" would have been better than "Bench Mob I" if they weren't spending so much time in the starting lineup.
They just had to hold out until Derrick Rose came back.
And he's not going to. Not this year. That much is becoming clear. And frankly, if I were Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson and Carlos Boozer, I would be feeling pretty burned right now.
These guys have absolutely gone to war on a nightly basis, kept their competitive edge, and tried to preserve a solid seed so that when Rose returned, they could step right back into the hunt for the East.
Yet after weeks of full speed practicing, Rose really seems content to pack it in on this season. I can't even believe I'm saying it, because the Derrick Rose we know has been a fierce competitor.
No one wants Rose to rush back. No one wants to subject him to ANY additional risk of injury. But we know at this point that he is not at risk. And for some reason, Rose doesn't want to play until he reaches 100% effectiveness, not 100% health.
I think he owes his team a little better.
But now we have reached the point where there simply isn't sufficient time for him to gradually ramp up his minutes to a full load by playoff time.
And if he can't get himself on the court for tonight's game against the Heat, as they bring their 27-game winning streak into the United Center... then it's clearly not happening this year.
At this point, the Bulls should make the rest of the season about getting as many minutes as possible for Jimmy Butler and Marquis Teague. Their development - and preserving the health of Deng and Noah - are now paramount.
Shut Kirk Hinrich down, too. He has been rickety all season, so let him get a start on healing up, training, and getting primed for next year.
We have now arrived at a place where if the Bulls are going to take the long view on Rose and not push him even a little bit to get out on the court, then they should look past this season on everything.
As Duke screamed as Drago was about to kill Apollo:
"Throw the damn towel!"
Friday, February 15, 2013
Trade Rose?
There is what I call a "rationalist" school of thought in terms of what to hope for when it comes to your sports teams. Its main tenet is aiming for the next possible championship, and you should hope for any event that furthers that goal.
Now, I don't necessarily, as a fan, subscribe to a "rationalist" approach to an exercise - fandom - that is inherently irrational. After all, there is exactly no consequence to the fan if any game is lost. The actual conditions of my life were not affected any more by the Jordan Championship era than they were by the Tim Floyd dark ages. Yes, I got more enjoyment from watching the Bulls during the former. But then again, I got some real enjoyment watching a couple of good Scott Skiles seasons, as I did watching Derrick Rose since he came into the league. The existential enjoyment that comes from enjoying sports and being part of a tribal, communal "rooting" experience comes almost as much (for most people) just from the very existence of consequential games.
Some, most notably 670 The Score's Dan Bernstein, refer to anything short of having at least a 50/50 chance of winning a title as "basketball hell". Observers of that ilk actually get more enjoyment from really bad basketball than they get from a team that is very good but not clearly the best, because being awful does not burden the fan with any realistic hopes. The emotional burden of being close enough to the prize to plausibly hope for it is simply too much for them to bear, so they retreat into the "rationalist" ramparts in order to take the inherent emotionalism of fandom out of it.
As a fan, I don't lean that way. But if you're an executive of any sports team, where it's your JOB to win the next championship... the businesslike "rationalist" approach is how you must prosecute it. That's your fiduciary responsibility.
To that end...
There is a strong rationalist argument that the Bulls won't win a title in the next four years. I personally believe it might be possible to overcome LeBron and the Heat before then, but any rational situation analysis must at least grant that Miami will reside at or near the top of the table for the next few years.
Further, given the style of his game, it's reasonable to question just how long of a prime Derrick Rose is going to have - and reasonable to question whether that prime will extend further into the future than that of LeBron James.
I am not going to offer an opinion on these matters right now. What I am going to do, however, is accept these premises for the sake of argument, and apply the rationalist approach.
And if you carry this to its logical conclusion, then there is only one rational course of action:
Trade Derrick Rose.
To win the next possible NBA Championship, the objective should be to optimize a roster for 2016-2020 - at least so that you catch the tail end of LeBron James' prime, or to consider the possibility that the Heat could break up and LeBron will cast his lot with another franchise once his two buddies no longer represent a strong enough supporting cast anymore.
The Bulls should want to load up on future assets, and at least put themselves in a cap situation where they could be an option for LeBron or Durant if and when either hits the market.
Optimizing the roster for the latter half of this decade means that selling high on Deng and Noah right now is the thing to do - they will both be well north of 30 by then - in addition to cashing in on Rose and Taj Gibson.
Here's the blueprint:
1. Luol Deng to Atlanta for expiring contracts and one of their two first round picks, in the middle of the round.
2. Joakim Noah to Oklahoma City for Kendrick Perkins, Perry Jones and the Toronto pick the Thunder own in one of the next three years. Jones is a developmental project. Perkins is a placeholder for two more years - someone still has to play center while you re-tool. The pick is the value here. You're getting a late lottery pick for Noah.
3. Taj Gibson to the Knicks for Iman Shumpert. Gibson is going to be 28 this spring, so if your window is four years out, you're not looking at him as a mainstay at that point. In New York, Chandler and Stoudemire are already 30, and Stoudemire is a shadow of his former self. For a team that wants to compete right now, Gibson would be an appealing option at the 4. At 22, Shumpert should be in the middle of his prime when the Bulls are ready to compete again. This deal should work on the cap with Gibson as a base year player.
4. Derrick Rose to Charlotte for Kemba Walker and their #1 pick this year (which will be in the top 3). You get a promising young point guard who is two years younger than Rose and whose game should give him a longer shelf life... plus another pick at the top of the draft.
So now you have your own pick this year, Atlanta's pick this year, Charlotte's top-3 pick this year, Toronto's pick in one of the next three drafts, and the future Charlotte pick you already have from the Tyrus Thomas deal. Plus, the Bulls' own picks are going to be higher for the next year or two.
In terms of bodies for the future, you have Walker (22), Shumpert (22), Jimmy Butler (23) and eventually Nikola Mirotic (22). Four years from now they will all be 26-27. Plus you have projects like Marquis Teague and Perry Jones.
And on top of all of this, the Bulls will have cap flexibility for the next two summers, with another $25 million worth of Boozer and Kendrick Perkins coming off the cap in the summer of 2015 - right as Walker, Shumpert, Butler and Mirotic should be peaking and right after the Bulls have loaded their roster with draft picks the previous two summers.
If you want to take the "rationalist" approach and optimize your roster for when the Heat might start to falter or disintegrate, this is how you do it.
Now, I don't necessarily, as a fan, subscribe to a "rationalist" approach to an exercise - fandom - that is inherently irrational. After all, there is exactly no consequence to the fan if any game is lost. The actual conditions of my life were not affected any more by the Jordan Championship era than they were by the Tim Floyd dark ages. Yes, I got more enjoyment from watching the Bulls during the former. But then again, I got some real enjoyment watching a couple of good Scott Skiles seasons, as I did watching Derrick Rose since he came into the league. The existential enjoyment that comes from enjoying sports and being part of a tribal, communal "rooting" experience comes almost as much (for most people) just from the very existence of consequential games.
Some, most notably 670 The Score's Dan Bernstein, refer to anything short of having at least a 50/50 chance of winning a title as "basketball hell". Observers of that ilk actually get more enjoyment from really bad basketball than they get from a team that is very good but not clearly the best, because being awful does not burden the fan with any realistic hopes. The emotional burden of being close enough to the prize to plausibly hope for it is simply too much for them to bear, so they retreat into the "rationalist" ramparts in order to take the inherent emotionalism of fandom out of it.
As a fan, I don't lean that way. But if you're an executive of any sports team, where it's your JOB to win the next championship... the businesslike "rationalist" approach is how you must prosecute it. That's your fiduciary responsibility.
To that end...
There is a strong rationalist argument that the Bulls won't win a title in the next four years. I personally believe it might be possible to overcome LeBron and the Heat before then, but any rational situation analysis must at least grant that Miami will reside at or near the top of the table for the next few years.
Further, given the style of his game, it's reasonable to question just how long of a prime Derrick Rose is going to have - and reasonable to question whether that prime will extend further into the future than that of LeBron James.
I am not going to offer an opinion on these matters right now. What I am going to do, however, is accept these premises for the sake of argument, and apply the rationalist approach.
And if you carry this to its logical conclusion, then there is only one rational course of action:
Trade Derrick Rose.
To win the next possible NBA Championship, the objective should be to optimize a roster for 2016-2020 - at least so that you catch the tail end of LeBron James' prime, or to consider the possibility that the Heat could break up and LeBron will cast his lot with another franchise once his two buddies no longer represent a strong enough supporting cast anymore.
The Bulls should want to load up on future assets, and at least put themselves in a cap situation where they could be an option for LeBron or Durant if and when either hits the market.
Optimizing the roster for the latter half of this decade means that selling high on Deng and Noah right now is the thing to do - they will both be well north of 30 by then - in addition to cashing in on Rose and Taj Gibson.
Here's the blueprint:
1. Luol Deng to Atlanta for expiring contracts and one of their two first round picks, in the middle of the round.
2. Joakim Noah to Oklahoma City for Kendrick Perkins, Perry Jones and the Toronto pick the Thunder own in one of the next three years. Jones is a developmental project. Perkins is a placeholder for two more years - someone still has to play center while you re-tool. The pick is the value here. You're getting a late lottery pick for Noah.
3. Taj Gibson to the Knicks for Iman Shumpert. Gibson is going to be 28 this spring, so if your window is four years out, you're not looking at him as a mainstay at that point. In New York, Chandler and Stoudemire are already 30, and Stoudemire is a shadow of his former self. For a team that wants to compete right now, Gibson would be an appealing option at the 4. At 22, Shumpert should be in the middle of his prime when the Bulls are ready to compete again. This deal should work on the cap with Gibson as a base year player.
4. Derrick Rose to Charlotte for Kemba Walker and their #1 pick this year (which will be in the top 3). You get a promising young point guard who is two years younger than Rose and whose game should give him a longer shelf life... plus another pick at the top of the draft.
So now you have your own pick this year, Atlanta's pick this year, Charlotte's top-3 pick this year, Toronto's pick in one of the next three drafts, and the future Charlotte pick you already have from the Tyrus Thomas deal. Plus, the Bulls' own picks are going to be higher for the next year or two.
In terms of bodies for the future, you have Walker (22), Shumpert (22), Jimmy Butler (23) and eventually Nikola Mirotic (22). Four years from now they will all be 26-27. Plus you have projects like Marquis Teague and Perry Jones.
And on top of all of this, the Bulls will have cap flexibility for the next two summers, with another $25 million worth of Boozer and Kendrick Perkins coming off the cap in the summer of 2015 - right as Walker, Shumpert, Butler and Mirotic should be peaking and right after the Bulls have loaded their roster with draft picks the previous two summers.
If you want to take the "rationalist" approach and optimize your roster for when the Heat might start to falter or disintegrate, this is how you do it.
Friday, February 8, 2013
Irony can be pretty ironic sometimes...
I spent two years screaming that Carlos Boozer and his albatross of a contract were the biggest limiting factor on finally being able to piece a Championship team together around Derrick Rose.
For the first time, we finally have a specific Boozer trade rumor, and...
I dunno.
I can't really get my head around this Andrea Bargnani rumor. It makes little sense. Yes, he could be a "stretch" power forward whose perimeter shooting might give the Bulls' offense another dimension. Maybe he'll decongest the lane for Derrick Rose by pulling opponents' power forwards out to the perimeter. But he adds no more to the mix defensively than Boozer, and he's a 7-footer who rebounds like a good shooting guard.
And while Bargnani is making a little less per year than Boozer, it's still not nearly enough to get the Bulls under the cap. And if he exercises his player option, he'll delay the Bulls having cap space by another year after Boozer would have been gone - and he takes the amnesty option off the table, which the Bulls currently have with Boozer. (You can only amnesty a player who was on your roster at the time the lockout ended.)
The only thing I can think of at this point is that Bargnani won't be any WORSE than Boozer, but his contract may be slightly less untradeable than Boozer's. Maybe the Bulls feel like Bargnani might be movable for an expiring contract, where Boozer is not.
Further, since Taj Gibson has a history of producing much better as a starter, you could more easily justify bringing Bargnani off the bench as a scoring anchor for the second team so Luol Deng doesn't have to do it forever.
I suppose if you look for reasons this makes some sense, you can find them. But Boozer has played well enough this year that I don't feel all that compelled to move him just for the sake of doing it.
Is it possible this is just the first chess move in a broader gambit?
Stay tuned, I guess. Gar Forman is the top dog. The head cheese. Numero uno honcho...
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
Playing GM
Last night the Bulls hung around in another road game they had no business being in before finally succumbing to the Pacers. (Incidentally, if the Pacers can get any real value for Danny Granger, they have the potential to be a nasty team as Paul George and Lance Stephenson develop.)
Sitting at 10 games over .500, on pace for 50 wins even without Rose, it's time to start asking what moves might be made at the trade deadline to get over the hump and put a real scare into the Heat and Knicks in the East.
Conventional wisdom says the Bulls need a second shot-creator. Now, for starters, I'm not sure this is so. If you have one possession at the end of a game, you have the option of putting Rose and Nate Robinson on the floor together. And Marco Belinelli can get his own shot better than any of the options we have seen with Rose since maybe John Salmons when Rose was a rookie. And he was actually playing the 3 with Deng injured in that epic series with the Celtics.
But in the bigger picture, I just don't believe in absolutes like that. The Mavericks took down the Heat without a second pure shot-maker to run with Nowitzki. I think the Bulls just need a better basketball player at the 2.
Now, I have been fairly impressed with Marco Belinelli. His ability to both defend and create his own shot have been pleasant surprises - two areas of his game in which he's an upgrade over Kyle Korver. With Rip Hamilton looking for all the world like the guy who doesn't know the party is over but for some reason is still there, could the Bulls turn the 2 position over to Belinelli and the emerging Jimmy Butler, along with spot minutes with Hinrich and Rose sharing the same backcourt? Truth is... probably. It would be better than the Keith Bogans/Rip Hamilton experience of the past two seasons. But I'd feel better with a legit starter plugged into that spot.
To that end, let's look at the guy who was almost a Bull in the first place: J.J. Redick. The Bulls signed him to a front-loaded offer sheet during the Summer of LeBron, which was meant to make the cash-strapped Magic swallow hard before matching. Once they did, the Bulls settled for Korver and Brewer. Well, Redick is having a career year this year, scoring 15 points per game, shooting 40% from distance, and is a willing enough defender for Tom Thibodeau. His contract expires after this year, and there is smoke that he is available.
Could the Bulls send Hamilton's expiring contract and a first round pick to Orlando for a Redick rental, along with the hopes of retaining him with his Larry Bird rights? It seems a worthwhile gamble given where the Bulls will be drafting, and even a late #1 for a rental is probably the best the Magic will do
One other element the Bulls continue to miss is a big-bodied, defensive-minded center to replace what they lost in Omer Asik. Nazr Mohammed is another veteran who looks like he has stayed too long at the party.
Denver's Timofey Mozgov might fit the bill. He is very low-priced - a bit over $2 million - and he is averaging fewer than 3 points per game in limited minutes. And the Bulls would not be counting on him for many, as they are comfortable in many matchups with Taj Gibson. But Mozgov is a club Tom Thibodeau would surely like to have in his bag,
The expiring contracts of Nazr Mohammed and Vladimir Radmanovic along with one or two second round picks should be sufficient for Mozgov. His market value is not high - he's a luxury item few teams have a distinct need for right now.
This would give the Bulls a bench of Hinrich, Belinelli, Butler, Gibson and Mozgov, which I submit is not just better but QUITE A BIT better than the fabled "Bench Mob" of recent vintage.
If the Bulls were to simply re-sign Belinelli, Redick and Mozgov, they would need to make no other moves this offseason to go into next year expecting to compete for the title. And they could keep their very valuable future assets - Nikola Mirotic and the Charlotte pick - as the roster someday turns over around Rose.
Sitting at 10 games over .500, on pace for 50 wins even without Rose, it's time to start asking what moves might be made at the trade deadline to get over the hump and put a real scare into the Heat and Knicks in the East.
Conventional wisdom says the Bulls need a second shot-creator. Now, for starters, I'm not sure this is so. If you have one possession at the end of a game, you have the option of putting Rose and Nate Robinson on the floor together. And Marco Belinelli can get his own shot better than any of the options we have seen with Rose since maybe John Salmons when Rose was a rookie. And he was actually playing the 3 with Deng injured in that epic series with the Celtics.
But in the bigger picture, I just don't believe in absolutes like that. The Mavericks took down the Heat without a second pure shot-maker to run with Nowitzki. I think the Bulls just need a better basketball player at the 2.
Now, I have been fairly impressed with Marco Belinelli. His ability to both defend and create his own shot have been pleasant surprises - two areas of his game in which he's an upgrade over Kyle Korver. With Rip Hamilton looking for all the world like the guy who doesn't know the party is over but for some reason is still there, could the Bulls turn the 2 position over to Belinelli and the emerging Jimmy Butler, along with spot minutes with Hinrich and Rose sharing the same backcourt? Truth is... probably. It would be better than the Keith Bogans/Rip Hamilton experience of the past two seasons. But I'd feel better with a legit starter plugged into that spot.
To that end, let's look at the guy who was almost a Bull in the first place: J.J. Redick. The Bulls signed him to a front-loaded offer sheet during the Summer of LeBron, which was meant to make the cash-strapped Magic swallow hard before matching. Once they did, the Bulls settled for Korver and Brewer. Well, Redick is having a career year this year, scoring 15 points per game, shooting 40% from distance, and is a willing enough defender for Tom Thibodeau. His contract expires after this year, and there is smoke that he is available.
Could the Bulls send Hamilton's expiring contract and a first round pick to Orlando for a Redick rental, along with the hopes of retaining him with his Larry Bird rights? It seems a worthwhile gamble given where the Bulls will be drafting, and even a late #1 for a rental is probably the best the Magic will do
One other element the Bulls continue to miss is a big-bodied, defensive-minded center to replace what they lost in Omer Asik. Nazr Mohammed is another veteran who looks like he has stayed too long at the party.
Denver's Timofey Mozgov might fit the bill. He is very low-priced - a bit over $2 million - and he is averaging fewer than 3 points per game in limited minutes. And the Bulls would not be counting on him for many, as they are comfortable in many matchups with Taj Gibson. But Mozgov is a club Tom Thibodeau would surely like to have in his bag,
The expiring contracts of Nazr Mohammed and Vladimir Radmanovic along with one or two second round picks should be sufficient for Mozgov. His market value is not high - he's a luxury item few teams have a distinct need for right now.
This would give the Bulls a bench of Hinrich, Belinelli, Butler, Gibson and Mozgov, which I submit is not just better but QUITE A BIT better than the fabled "Bench Mob" of recent vintage.
If the Bulls were to simply re-sign Belinelli, Redick and Mozgov, they would need to make no other moves this offseason to go into next year expecting to compete for the title. And they could keep their very valuable future assets - Nikola Mirotic and the Charlotte pick - as the roster someday turns over around Rose.
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